Get A Sense Of Humor Golden Globes

After Ricky Gervais' performance, many critics and old stuffy white dudes criticized the hist for being too lewd, crude, and actually funny. These are the same people who hated on Chris Rock in 2005 when he hosted the Oscars. Yet these same people criticized Jon Stewart for not being funny. Well make up your mind, do you want these people to be tame or to be funny? You can't have it both ways.

I personally loved Gervais (and Rock a few years back). These award shows are a bunch of narcissistic blowhards patting themselves on the back. God forbid we can laugh at them while they do it.

A Picture Is Worth 1,000 Words: Why Pujols Deserves More Money Than Teixeira and Mauer, But Not A-Rod Money

(click to embiggen)

Even if you look at cumulative WAR by age, the difference between A-Rod and Pujols by age remains constant (compare the area differential for the age 21 to 29 seasons). That's not to say Pujols age 31-40 seasons will not be comparable to A-Rod's, however...just a commentary on equivalent-aged production.

Why Is There Home Field Advantage? (Quick Version)

I love to poop. I love to read while I poop. So other day I was reading Sports Illustrated while throwing a curveball and there was a great article by Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim in it explaining why home field advantage exists (Although not for the 2010 Miami Dolphins).

No matter what sport you are looking at whether it's Premier League soccer or minor league baseball, a home field advantage exists. In fact, the home field advantage percentage it's essentially similar between sports as well (e.g. the NBA and WNBA; European soccer and the MLS).

It's not because of the crowd or the way stadiums are set up or anything like that.

The reason for home field advantage: the referees.

I won't go into full details right now, but the authors looked into things that solely the referees can control. They first looked at stoppage time in soccer and found a distinct advantage towards the home team. They then looked at MLB (with the help of DME's dominatrix Tom Tango) at called balls and strikes and also found a strong home field advantage. The authors next looked to the NFL with challenges and penalties. And again, found a clear cut home field advantage.

So as much as I still want computers calling balls and strikes in baseball and so that we can make it official that Armando Galarraga threw a perfect game, those douchebags in the black and white who can never get a call right (haha that rhymes) serve a great purpose after all. See: Calvin Johnson's TD "catch" in Week One at Chicago.

New Podcasts Up!

You can listen here.

You can also download this and every Game Of Inches podcast on iTunes. Just go to the iTunes store, type "Game Of Inches" into it. If you don't see the GOI logo (the one with the fuzzy black background and bright "GOI" lettering on it) then go to the left where it says "Filter By Media Type" and click on "Podcasts". You should see two logos. The second one has the newer podcasts.

Joe Flacco Update

For some reason Joe Flacco is my boy. I don't really like him all that much. In my quarterback rankings (post soon to come) I ranked Flacco 13th. But for some reason I have been following his career and posting about it. So why not write one more.

In the offseason before the 2010 NFL season began, the Ravens traded for Anquan Boldin. Therefore, I wrote a post predicting how well Flacco and the other receivers would do. This is what I predicted for Flacco before the season:

515 attempts, 345 completions, 4031 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 6 fumbles, 55 rushing attempts, 200 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs.

These were pretty ballsy numbers, mainly considering Flacco had never thrown for over 4000 yards in a season or thrown over 500 attempts. Here's the numbers Flacco did end up with:

489 attempts, 306 completions, 3622 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INT, 9 fumbles, 43 rushing attempts, 84 rushing yards, 1 TD.

I predicted a 25/11 TD/INT ratio for Flacco and he ended up with a 25/10 ratio so I think that's pretty damn impressive. But I also thought Flacco would throw it a bit more and thus get more yards. I thought the addition of Boldin would improve Flacco's numbers. But it did not.

I kind of think that the numbers Flacco put up this year are the numbers that he'll put up for his career. I think he'll have about a 63% completion percentage (63.1 in 2009, 62.6 in 2010) and he'll throw for about 485-500 times (499 in 2009, 489 in 2010).

Before I predicted Flacco's numbers I predicted his wide outs numbers. Anquan Boldin has had a great career so I predicted his numbers to fall in line partially with what he did in the past. By doing so that naturally raised Flacco's numbers (who I thought would improve and continue to develop as he got another year of experience under his belt).

Another major assumption that I made was that Anquan Boldin would be Flacco's number one target. Throughout Flacco's short career he's had a clear cut number one guy and a clear cut number two guy. It turns out that split was mainly because of the talent of Mason and Mark Clayton and not because of the system or how Flacco throws or what-have-you. While Boldin was technically Flacco's number one target with 108, Mason was not far behind with 100. Here's what I predicted for Anquan Boldin:

130 targets, 92 receptions, 1100 yards, 9 TDs, 3 fumbles, 4 carries, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Now right off the bat you should be able to tell that my prediction was way off because I thought he would get 130 targets and he only got 108. Here's Boldin's numbers on the year:

108 targets, 64 receptions, 837 yards, 7 TDs, 1 fumble, 2 carries, 2 yards, 0 TDs

Well at least I correctly predicted Boldin wouldn't get any rushing touchdowns.

Another big problems with my prediction/actuality split was that Boldin had one of the worst catch rates of his career. In 2009 and 2008, Boldin caught 71% of his passes. He only caught 59% of them in 2010. The lack of targets and catching his targets drastically decreased Boldin's numbers which seems to me shows a sign of lack of talent. Or maybe he was just in a new system and had an outlier year because of it. Whatever the reason was, it was a huge difference to why my Flacco prediction was so off.

Here's what I predicted for Derrick Mason:

85 targets, 52 receptions, 730 yards, 5 TDs, 1 fumble, 1 carry, 2 yards, 0 TDs.

I have a pretty good system in how to calculate targets but a poorer way ho to calculate catch rate and an even poorer way still to calculate yards per reception. Mason has had a sporadic catch rate and YPR the past three years as I pointed out in my original post. Here's the numbers Mason actually did get:

100 targets, 61 receptions, 802 yards, 7 TDs, 0 fumbles, 0 carries.

While Mason's targets did take a huge drop with the addition of Boldin (He averaged a shade under 140 the past few years compared to the 100 he got in 2010) my 85 prediction was WAY too low.

I did however hit Mason's catch rate (61%) right on the nose.

I did however guess incorrectly Mason's YPR. I should have averaged out in 2009 and 2008 campaign (which would have given me 13.5 YPR which was closer to the 13.1 Mason actually got as opposed to be 14.0 I gave him as opposed to adding that third year. But so is life.). However, for fantasy purposes, because of his increases in targets he far exceeded my expectations of him and he did well for anyone that drafted him.

Here's what I predicted for TE Todd Heap:

80 targets, 52 receptions, 588 yards, 4 TDs, 0 fumbles, 2 carries, 18 yards.

Here's what Heap ended up with in 2010:

64 targets, 40 receptions, 599 yards, 5 TDs, 0 fumbles, 0 carries.

Considering Heap had the best YPR of his entire career and by far did anything better than he's ever done, I think my fantasy prediction of him was pretty damn spot on.

Last, but not least, we have Ray Rice. I pegged him as the third best running back in fantasy (behind CJ and AD) and I sincerely apologize for that. I paid 70 dollars for him in one league and he severely disappointed me. I really don't know why the decrease in his production from what I thought but here's what I predicted for Rice:

290 carries, 1505 rushing yards, 8 TDs, 2 fumbles; 100 targets, 77 receptions, 658 yards, 2 TDs.

Here's what Rice ended up with:

307 carries, 1220 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 0 fumbles, 82 targets, 63 receptions, 556 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD.

In the past, Flacco's success has arisen because of his quick dump offs to his running backs so the decrease in the touches as I predicted for Rice and the decrease in the amount of passing yards I predicted to Rice was a huge factor in my poor prediction of Joe Flacco.

Here's how Flacco's targets broke down in 2010:

Boldin: 22%
Mason: 20%
Rice: 16.8%
Heap: 16.3%
Houshmandzadeh: 11.8%
McGahee/McClain: 9.0%
Other Receivers: 6.7%

Top 2 Receivers: 42.5%
RBs: 25.8%
Heap: 16.3%
Other Receivers:
RBs: 18.6%

As what the head of BP/DP kept saying throughout the Coon and Friends three parter of South Park last season, "Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry."

Best Movies Of 2010

This title is a misnomer because not only is this list really more like my favorite movies, but this post is mainly dedicated to whom I think the Oscar front runner(s) should be.

In full disclosure, while I have seen a shit ton of movies in 2010, I still have not seen many ones that are considered "good" like 127 Hours, The King's Speech, Blue Valentine, or Winter's Bone (and many more). So subject to me seeing those, here's my list.

Best Movie
Winner: Inception
Runner Up: The Social Network

Best Director
Winner: Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Runner Up: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actor
Winner: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Runner Up: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
NOTE: This runner up is subject to change because I was not all that sold on Bridges and essentially all the movies I listed above have contenders.

Best Actress
Winner: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Runner Up: Annette Bening (The Kids Are Alright)

Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Runner Up: Justin Timberlake (The Social Network)

Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Runner Up: Amy Adams (The Fighter)

Best Script
Winner: Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Runner Up: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)

The Best (really my favorite) Movies Of 2010

10) Toy Story 3








9) How To Train Your Dragon

8) Paranormal Activity 2

7) The Other Guys








6) Frozen








5) The Fighter








4) Black Swan








3) Kick Ass








2) The Social Network








1) Inception

Worthless Playoff Predictions: 2010 NFL

Here's an excerpt of what I wrote on Twitter last Thursday, two days before the NFL playoffs began:

Playoff prediction: Every road NFL team wins this weekend, with the EXCEPTION of the Seahawks

While I misspoke and meant to say every road team but the Saints will win (because Seattle was the home team), I correctly predicted all four playoffs games for the Wild Card weekend. Let's see if I can do the same for the rest of games.

Conference Round

(2) Chicago def. (4) Seattle
(6) Green Bay def. (1) Atlanta

(1) New England def. (6) New York
(5) Baltimore def. (2) Pittsburgh

Divisional Round

(2) Chicago def. (6) Green Bay

(1) New England def. (5) Baltimore

Super Bowl

New England Patriots def. Chicago Bears

xWHIP 2.0 Challenge #1: Matt Garza's 2011

Using the new and improved xWHIP 2.0 calculator, here is Matt Garza's expected WHIP for 2011 on the Cubs. Keep in mind he is not only changing parks, but leagues, so perhaps this figure is not as accurate as it could be (different park dimensions and locations affect batted ball distributions):

When Baseball Writers Do Not Think

According to MLB Trade Rumors,

Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com thinks the Beltre signing "isn’t necessarily a loss for the jilted A’s" since the Rangers didn't solve their main need of pitching, and Beltre's production last year "represents a wash offensively" with the departed Vladimir Guerrero.

That would be all and well if baseball was an exclusively offensive game, but it's not. Even in the AL, eight of the hitters take the field. Michael Young posted a -5.4 UZR last season and has a career UZR/150 of -7.5 over 293 games played (2544 innings) at third base. On the other hand, Adrian Beltre posted a +11.8 UZR last season and has a career +15.3 UZR/150 at third base over 1818 games, 15676.1 innings played. That's a ~2 WAR differential there, assuming a wash in offense between 2010 Vladimir Guerrero (.360 wOBA) and 2011 Adrian Beltre (projected .355 wOBA). Oh, and don't forget that Big Daddy Vladdy won't be forced to butcher the outfield for the Rangers in interleague games next season either.

Better Late Than Never, Bert

Today, Bert Blyleven finally got recognized for being the great pitcher he was. It took fourteen years, but always better late than never. Congratulations, Bert.

In the long, traditional and tainted history of baseball, you will find few players who were as good as Bert Blyleven. A pitcher who spent 86% of his career in the AL, Blyleven was not only one of the most durable pitchers to ever play the game (14th all time in innings pitched), but he also played each and every one of those innings, up until the last few years of his career, remarkably well and consistently. Blyleven was not just "good" at baseball, he was nothing short of great, and unlike Javier Vazquez, he did not underperform his stellar peripherals.

In terms of the topical, traditional statistics, Blyleven's career 3.31 ERA puts him in company with current/future Hall Of Famers Randy Johnson (career 3.29 ERA), Fergie Jenkins (career 3.34 ERA), Phil Niekro (career 3.35 ERA), and Robin Roberts (3.41 ERA). His ERA is also lower than that of Tom Glavine (career 3.54 ERA). You like wins? His 287 wins are give him one more than Robin Roberts, and makes him 27th all time. Only six other players in the history of baseball who have more wins than Blyleven Tommy John (288), Bobby Mathews (297), Randy Johnson (303), Tom Glavine (305), Roger Clemens (354), and Greg Maddux (355)) are not currently in the hall of fame, and five years from now, that number will dwindle down to two. Many pitchers with less wins are already in. Furthermore, Blyleven was never known as a jerk or cheater or drug user during his career, unlike Albert Belle, Ron Santo (God rest his soul), Tim Raines, Kenny Rogers, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, et al. Tto the contrary,Blyleven has a great sense of humor. But wins don't really matter, at least not in measuring a pitchers talent, and attitude has nothing to do with his talent and production on the field.

While Blyleven performed remarkably well in the surface stats that most Hall of Fame voters obsessively oogle, his underlying skill sets are equally impressive. Bert Blyleven ended his career with a 3.19 FIP over almost 5,000 innings pitched, making him top 50 all time amongst starting pitchers who threw 2500+ innings. A 3.19 FIP puts Blyleven in company with such current and future Hall Of Famers as Steve Carlton (career 3.15 FIP) and Jim Bunning (3.22 FIP) and ahead of such guys as Don Sutton (career 3.24 FIP), Greg Maddux (career 3.26 FIP), Fergie Jenkins (3.28 FIP), Dennis Eckersley (career 3.40 FIP), and Phil Niekro (career 3.60 FIP). In fact, Blyleven's FIP was only above 3.00 twice during his first nine major league seasons (one of which was his rookie year). Over those first nine years of his career, his career high FIP was 3.27. In his career, his FIP was above 4 only three times. His BB/9 was only three times above 3.00 in a season and only once above 3.50. Blyleven's K/9 (6.70 career) was also above average each season until his final three in the majors. With the exception of his final three seasons -- over which Blyleven's K/BB was 2.98, 2.76, and 2.41 -- Blyleven's K/9 was never below 6.0.

Blyleven's numbers are so good because his control was superb. It was not Greg Maddux-like, but a career 2.39 BB/9 is none the less fantastic. Blyleven posted a career 2.80 K/BB mark, which is top 35 amongst all pitchers who threw 2000+ innings (top 25 amongst all pitchers with 2500+ innings). And just in case Blyleven's career 2.80 K/BB does not sound sweet enough, between 1970 and 1992, the league average K/BB was only above 1.75 once (1988).

Fangraphs does not have any groundball data available for any season prior to 2002, but it is well known that Blyleven had a fantastic curveball and he kept the ball in the yard plenty with a 0.78 HR/9.

In sum, we have the portrait of a pitcher with great peripherals and quality surface stats. Blyleven was an almost entirely AL pitcher with a good reputation, a lot of wins, great control (in terms of both BB/9 and K/BB), and a very quality FIP and ERA. His 3,701 career strikeouts are fifth all time and he's better than many of the pitchers who are already honored (some of whom should not be...but that post is for another time) in the halls of history in Cooperstown, New York. Blyleven was one of baseball's true greats and I am glad his is finally being recognized as such. With luck, Blyleven's entry will pave the way for Mike Mussina.

On one final note, I would like to point out that Jeff Bagwell's snub, garnering less than 50% of the vote, seems awfully ridiculous. As Chris Jaffee noted earlier this week:

Some talk has surrounded Jeff Bagwell as a steroid taker. He's never been named as one, never tested positive, and there's no solid evidence or even evasive statements before Congress linking him to steroids. But he might be dinged by the power of gossip and innuendo.

Rather than extol upon how unfair tainting innuendo is in our guilty until proven innocent until proven guilty society and rehash a long-winded argument in favor of Jeff Bagwell, I will instead let the numbers visually stand for themselves. Below, courtesy of Fangraphs's WAR graphs is a visual representation of the career of Jeff Bagwell (green) in comparison to the careers of the three most recently elected Hall of Fame hitters -- Roberto Alomar (congratulations!, orange), Andre Dawson (blue), and Jim Rice (purple):



Like I said, I think the image speaks for itself.

xWHIP 2.0: The Next Generation

The following article is from my most recent article for The Hardball Times.

A few months ago, I debuted the first version of the expected WHIP (xWHIP) calculator, which took a pitcher's batted ball distribution and, in determining an expected number of hits, calculated that pitcher's expected WHIP. The tool was tinkered with and refined until version 1.4.3 was released and that, until now, has been the primary xWHIP tool available. xWHIP 1.4.3 overexpected WHIP a bit, but was otherwise pretty solid. Especially for relative comparison purposes, xWHIP 1.4.3 was a useful fantasy tool.

Not long ago, I was introduced to a fellow stathead by the name of Martin Alex Hambrick. He had done some number tinkering similar to what I had done independently with the xWHIP calculator, and he had an idea. He brought that idea to my attention, and from it a new formula for expected xWHIP was born.

Alex's idea was that a pitcher's actual innings pitched (aIP) are as much the by product of luck as expected hits (xHits). The theory is that a medley of defense, umpires, errors, random luck and the like skew the length of innings. The pitcher, for example, does not particularly control dropped third strikes by his catcher.

This idea is somewhat captured in the K% (K/TBF) and BB% (BB/TBF) movement of sabermetrics that rejects K/9 and BB/9 because the length of innings is largely out of the control of the pitcher, thereby skewing both K/9 and BB/9. Accordingly, we began work on a new denominator for xWHIP that incorporated an expected innings (xIP) total based on a pitcher's outs-creating events.

With this idea in mind, we began work on a new xWHIP calculation. Law school delayed my work on a final formula until this week, but with "way too much time on my hands" (i.e., any lawyers out there need a law clerk for the summer?), I finally got around to hammering out a reliable formula and user-friendly interface, calibrated to Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data.

The current formulation for expected innings is as follows:

xIP = ((K*1.000075)+((BB-IBB+HBP)*0.00016)+((0.808)*GB)+((0.278)*LD)+((0.992)*IFFB)+((0.745)*OFFB)+(0.020099*(BB+HBP+xH)))/3

The coefficients in the above formula represent the expected outs by event rate. You might notice the two percent adjustment applied to both modified walks (BB-IBB+HBP) and expected hits (xH). That figure represents a ten-year average outs-per-runners-put-on-base rate (ORB). ORB encapsulates the ten-year league average pickoff and caught stealing rates.

Because catcher defense and a pitcher's pickoff talents are difficult to measure, and also not widely available, using a league average rate helps make the calculator more accessible. The final xWHIP figure should be mentally modified based on one's own perception of a catcher's pickoff ability or a pitcher's pickoff ability. If Jason Varitek is the catcher, you might want to raise the pitcher's calculated xWHIP, while the opposite would be true for those pitchers handled by Yadier Molina.

Alex is working on a simplified "Quick xWHIP" formula that simplifies the xWHIP calculation even further, to the point that you could do it on a calculator. He'll tell you more about that (and the accuracies of both xWHIP 2.0 and Quick xWHIP) in a (near-) future post. All I can say for now regarding the calculator's accuracy, at least to some degree of certainty, is two things. First, xWHIP works best—that is to say, it is most predictive—when you use multi-year data rather than year N-1 data. Second, the R^2 of the data seems to be solid for a predictive state.

Someone once told me (or maybe I just read it somewhere) that an R^2 of .30-.35 is strong for a predictive stat, while a .60 or greater R^2 is what is required of an evaluative stat. Using 2007 xWHIP 2.0 to predict 2008 actual WHIP resulted in an R^2 of .34 amongst the 78 pitchers who faced a minimum of 500 batters, compared to an R^2 of .26 for 2007 actual WHIP. Likewise, using 2008 xWHIP to predict 2009 actual WHIP resulted in an R^2 of .36 amongst the 80 pitchers who faced a minimum of 500 batters, compared to an R^2 of .30 for 2008 actual WHIP.

Strangely, however, using 2009 xWHIP to predict 2010 xWHIP amongst the 82 pitchers who accrued 500+ total batters faced merely resulted in an R^2 of .15 (compared to a .14 R^2 for 2009 actual WHIP). Maybe I crunched the 2009-2010 data incorrectly. Maybe this is a sample size issue. Maybe not. As I mentioned above, Alex will supply more details on the accuracy of xWHIP 2.0 shortly.

I also tinkered some with the expected hits formula, but the changes are relatively minor and hardly warrant discussion. The important thing to note about the new xWHIP tool is that it is now calibrated per the past five years of BIS data rather than Game Day. I have done this because I believe that Fangraphs utilizes BIS, not Game Day, as their source for ball in play (BIP) data. Accordingly, this should make the tool more accurate for the average user. Most of the data stood relatively stable, but here are the new expected hits by batted ball types:

• Popups: .004
  
• Groundballs: 0.236
  
• Outfield Flyballs: 0.250
  
• Line Drives: 0.716

These data points include home runs, which is why the Outfield Flyball expected hits rate is so high. If you take home runs out of the equation and account for them separately (as the xWHIP calculator does), the expected hits rate, per BIS, for Outfield Flyballs and Line Drives falls to .158 and .714, respectively.

You can download the new xWHIP tool, version 2.0, by clicking here. The password to utilize the xWHIP tool is still "soto 18" and the batted ball data you will need to plug in can be found at Fangraphs.com.

Picture below is a screenshot of the xWHIP 2.0 tool, which was used in my Zack Greinke forecast article. For explanatory purposes, this screenshot has the 2010 numbers of Roy Halladay plugged in.


As the instructions on the tool indicate, the gray cells are for data you should manually input. The magenta park factor cell is also a manual data cell, though the number should be left at "1.00000" unless you have the relevant park factor HR/FB index figure. You should not enter any data into any of the blue, green or yellow-orange cells.

The green cells feature the line drive-regressed expected-ball-in-play data. The yellow-orange cells display the expected innings, expected hits and expected WHIP for the pitcher, irrespective of defense. If you enter data into the Team Innings Pitched and Team UZR gray cells, then the blue cells will display a crude defensive adjustment to the expected hits total, assuming uniform defense and that all saved hits would be of the singles variety. All of the data cells are pre-formatted to visually round all numbers to keep the sheet clean, though cells will retain the full value of any number entered.

I also included a cell for xWHIP 1.4.3, calibrated from Game Day to BIS, in case people wanted to know a player's expected WHIP using expected hits and actual innings, rather than expected innings.

I hope everyone enjoys this. If you have any questions/concerns/comments/criticisms, please post them in the comments below or email them to gameofinchesblog@gmail.com, with the subject line "xWHIP 2.0 Calculator."

On a final note, I would like to give a special thank you to several of my THT colleagues who have been invaluable in the creation of the xWHIP 2.0 tool. Without the assistance of Derek Carty, Dave Studemund, and Harry Pavlidis, none of this would have been possible. I apologize to each of you for my incessant e-mailing in attempt to work out the mathematical kinks in the formula.

DME's Top 20 Fantasy Middle and Corner Infielders for 2011

My latest preseason rankings for The Hardball Times, the top 20 fantasy middle and corner infielders for 2011, are out. Enjoy.

Game Of Inches Football Results: Week Seventeen

I am still under the contention that Week 17 should not count for the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. This is a week in which you don't know who's starting, for how long, and this week has gotta be awful for Vegas. Ef this week. I vote that this week should not count for next year. But nevertheless I, Sexy Rexy, won the contest this year after coming in last place last year.

Pigskin Pick 'Em

1) Sexy Rexy
Overall: 169-87
Last Week: 12-4

2) The 'Bright' One
Overall: 167-89
Last Week: 12-4

3) Cubsfan4evr1
Overall: 151-105
Last Week: 11-5

No clutch games or WTF games this week because of the nature of Week 17. And helps further my point of why we should not count this week. Ironically, this was one of all three of our best weeks this season.

Fan Fact: The 'Bright' One (including leading ties as a win) won the most weeks with 10. Sexy Rexy won 8, Cubsfan4erv1 won 4.

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler in 2010? In Summation

After an extensive multi-week project and research, I am done concluding who deserves to go to Hawaii this year and who does not.

You can read my introduction here

You can read why I think Larry Fitzgerald is a Pro Bowler here

The Stats As A Basis For Which Players I Selected
NFC Offense
NFC Defense
AFC Offense
AFC Defense

The Actual Players I Think Deserve To Be Pro Bowlers
NFC Offense
NFC Defense
AFC Offense
AFC Defense

What Constitutes An All-Star "Snub"? Redux

Like I'm retweeting a tweet, here's an excerpt from a post I wrote on Januray 3rd, 2010 but I'm updating it to fit with 2011 Pro Bowl selections.

After every sports' all star selection comes out, everybody's favorite word soon after is "snub". I think this is a word that is thrown around way too loosely. After the 2009 MLB's All-Star selection, ESPN's Peter Gammons said that Rangers' P Kevin Millwood was an All-Star snub. Yes, Millwood had a fine first half for the Rangers and you could have made an argument, as Gammons did, that Millwood should be an All-Star. But to call him a snub? I don't think so. So I think we need to define it. Now.

Snub. Noun. A player that was not selected for his professional sports all-star game and should have a spot in the game over another player that was selected.

The key to being a snub is not that you DESERVED to go, but that you deserved to go over another player. The second key is that the player has to OVERWHELMINGLY deserve to go. Maurice Jones-Drew is a great running back and while I personally would have selected BenJarvis Green-Ellis, The Law Firm did not OVERWHELMING deserve the spot over Mo Jo. Therefore, BJGE was not snubbed.

There are however (as there is every year) obvious snubs. Here is a list of my selections of clear cut snubs:
- Matt Cassel (KC) over Peyton Manning (IND)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB) over Matt Ryan (ATL) or Drew Brees (NO)
- LeSean McCoy (PHI) over Steven Jackson (STL)
- Dan Koppen (NE) over Maurkice Pouncey (PIT)
- Mike Wallace (PIT) over Reggie Wayne (IND) or Andre Johnson (HOU)
- Aquib Talib (TAM) over DeAngelo Hall (WAS)
- Earl Thomas (SEA) over any of the three safeties selected
- Anyone over Jay Ratliff (DAL) and Andre Gurode (DAL). Eff the Dallas bias.

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part X: Actual Players, AFC, Defense

Before you comment or bitch or anything, please read my introduction to this series here and the stats in which I am basing my opinions upon can be found here

Defensive End
Starters: Mario Williams (HOU), Jason Babin (TEN)
Bench: Dave Ball (TEN)
Apologies to: Robert Mathis (IND), Dwight Freeney (IND)

When I compiled my stats and when NFL players vote, Mario Williams was second in the AFC in sacks and first in WPA. He also currently leads the AFC in hurries. I think he's fallen off since Week 13 but that's after when NFL players vote for the Pro Bowl and I think him not being on the roster is a tragedy. Dave Ball was also top 3 in both WPA and Sacks. I'm also glad the AFC only took three defensive ends because I honestly don't know which Colts DE is better, but the slight slight slight edge I gave to Freeney.

Defensive Tackle
Starters: Haloti Ngata (BAL), Kyle Williams (BUF)
Bench: Richard Seymour (OAK)

I haven't been watching as much Pats football this year as I've liked to so I don't know if Vince Wilfork is having a bad year or not but I think Williams, based upon individual numbers, is having a really good year.

Linebackers
Starters: Cam Wake (MIA), Jarrod Mayo (NE), James Harrison (PIT)
Bench: Lawrence Timmons (PIT), Ray Lewis (BAL)
Apologies to: Terrell Suggs (BAL)

Without even intending to, I agree with the actual Pro Bowl selections for the most part. I have no problem taking Suggs ahead of Timmons but pretty good job guys. For once.

Safeties
Starters: Troy Polamalu (PIT), Ed Reed (BAL)
Bench: Michael Griffin (TEN)

I still don't know how to accurately determine Pro Bowl safeties. It's possible Brandon Meriweather (NE) is better than Griffin.

Cornerbacks
Starters: Devin McCourtey (NE), Antoine Cason (SD)
Bench: Joe Haden (CLE)

I think this year Nnamandi and Revis are getting in on pure reputation. Last year, you could look at what great #1 wide outs like Andre Johnson and Randy Moss did against the Jets (poorly) and that was shown when the Jets were the best team at stopping teams #1 wide outs in terms of DVOA according to Football Outsiders. This year, the San Diego Chargers have the best defense and are the best at stopping other teams #1 wide outs. Cason is second in the AFC in interceptions so I'm just assuming he's better than Quentin Jammer. But I've only seen like two Chargers games this year so I don't know.

Joe Haden is tied for the AFC lead in interceptions but I originally dismissed it as the DeAngelo Hall effect- a bad corner/ defense that gets thrown on often is eventually going to get SOME opportunities for interceptions. But Haden is also 2nd in the AFC in WPA and is 7th in the AFC in EPA (right behind Cason).

Total Number of Selections According To Me:
- Baltimore Ravens (6)
- Buffalo Bills (2)
- Cincinnati Bengals (1)
- Cleveland Browns (1)
- Houston Texans (4)
- Indianapolis Colts (0)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (0)
- Houston Texans (5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (5)
- Miami Dolphins (1)
- New England Patriots (5)
- New York Jets (3)
- Oakland Raiders (2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (4)
- San Diego Chargers (3)
- Tennessee Titans (4)

Seeing as how a bad Houston Texans team has five Pro Bowlers and a good New York Jets team only has 3, I may take away Center Chris Evan's selection and give it to Nick Mangold who leads the best offensive line in football. That way each team will at least have four. But honestly, the Texans have some great pieces in place and even some great pieces like Mario Williams, Brian Cushing and former Bears great Mark Anderson on that horrific defense, so it doesn't surprise me, that when praising individual talent, the Texans excel.

I am happy to report that the Colts inherently got no selections. I great argument can be made that either Mathis or Freeney deserves to be ahead of Dave Ball. But even still, that's only one selection. The Colts really are an overrated team and I hope they get bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the Ravens.

The Chiefs are the only team to have a Pro Bowler (or one I think should be a Pro Bowler) from the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver position from either league. The Falcons, Patriots, Eagles, and Packers came close.

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part IX: Actual Players, NFC, Defense

Before you comment or bitch or anything, please read my introduction to this series here and the stats in which I am basing my opinions upon can be found here.

Defensive End
Starters: Julius Peppers (CHI), Justin Tuck (NYG)
Bench: Chris Clemons (SEA)
Apologies to: Kyle Vanden Bosch (DET), Osi Umenyiora (NYG), John Abraham (ATL)

In the NFC, the leaders right now according to FO in hurries is: Chris Long (STL), DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Charles Johnson (CAR), Julius Peppers, and then Chris Clemons. Besides Ware who's a linebacker, only Peppers and Clemons are top 4 in the NFC in either sacks or WPA as well so that's why I say they go to the Pro Bowl and Justin Tuck is the only guy who's both top 4 in WPA and sacks.

Defensive Tackle
Starters: Nddamukong Suh (DET), Justin Smith (SF)
Bench: Darnell Docket (ARI)

Donkey Kong Suh has nine sacks. As a defensive tackle. That's just amazing. To put that in perspective, in Albert Haynesworth's best year, he only had 8.5 sacks. And he was in the league for 7 years before he did that. Smith was named the alternate and i think he deserves to start. Especially over the overrated Jay Ratliff (DAL) who only went because he plays in Dallas. I chose Docket as the alternate because he leads the league in WPA.

Linebackers
Starters: DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Brian Urlacher (CHI), Clay Matthews (GB)
Bench: Chad Greenway (MIN), Patrick Willis (SF)
Apologies to: Brian Orakpo (WAS)

I think I need no justification for my starters, just watch them play and they do everything they're asked to do and then some. Chad Greenway leads the NFC in tackles and is second in the NFC in tackles for loss (according to when I compiled my stats). The only difference between my selections and the Pro Bowl selections is that I took Greenway over Lance Briggs (CHI). As much as I love my Bears, Briggs had a pretty bad second half of the season and did not deserve to go.

Safeties
Starters: Earl Thomas (SEA), LaRon Landry (WAS)
Bench: Kerry Rhodes (ARI)

If you can give me a definite, clear cut way how to judge safeties and disagree with my selections, please let me know and I'll be glad to change my results. Otherwise I will base my selections upon interceptions and WPA.

Cornerbacks
Starters: Asante Samuel (PHI), Aquib Talib (TAM)
Bench: Charles Woodson (GB)

Total Number of Selections According To Me:
- Arizona Cardinals (4)
- Atlanta Falcons (4)
- Carolina Panthers (0)
- Chicago Bears (4)
- Dallas Cowboys (3)
- Detroit Lions (2)
- Green Bay Packers (5)
- Minnesota Vikings (3)
- New Orleans Saints (2)
- New York Giants (3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (3)
- San Fransisco 49ers (4)
- Seattle Seahawks (2)
- St. Louis Rams (1)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1)
- Washington Redskins (1)

NBA Position Rankings

DME's Top 20 Beers

Yes, yes, this is a sports blog, but in addition to baseball, I do enjoy a few other things in life. Shocking, right? I know. For example, as an ex-film critic, it might be obvious that I love films. One of those loves, made possible via my brief tenure as a Binny's Beverage Depot employee and routine exposure to new brews, is beer (which I also periodically (and poorly) brew in my spare time). For new years eve, I made sure to purchase a few of my favorite bombers and in deciding what to drink, I made a list of what I would like to have most if available for purchase at the local liquor selling establishment. Rather than throw this used napkin carefully crafted list away, I present it to you thusly (though keep in mind, that I only rank what I have drank, that I hate Borbon/Whiskey flavors, and that I am not a real beer connoisseur, even if I periodically hold myself out as one):

1. Kentucky Breakfast Stout. Thick, heavy, complex. A brilliant mix of Vanilla, Oak, Tobacco, Chocolate and Coffee hides the alcohol well, and creating nothing but smooth flavor and only a taste of bitterness. This beer is very hard to find, and only comes out once a year. Equally tasty is the regular Breakfast Stout, which tends to be easier to find, though it is also a once-a-year brew.
2. Old Rasputin Russian Imperial Stout. The Old Rasputin XII, a one-time brew, is infinitely better, but infinitely more expensive (and hard to find).
3. Three Floyds Alpha King Pale Ale. Simply delicious, this brilliant year-round pale ale is perfectly bitter.
   
4. Wild Little Sumpin'. This stuff is ridiculously drinkable for an 8.5% ABV beer. It's a limited brew, but I am stocked up. After I run out, I'll have to regulate myself to the regular Little Sumpin'.
   
5. Three Floyds Dreadnaught IPA. A malty hop bomb of the highest order. A must drink for imperial IPA lovers everywhere, though it's hardly cheap...
6. Great Divide Oak Aged Yeti Imperial Stout. Like Dreadnaught, this beer is a bit pricey ($10-15 dollars a bomber), but well worth the cost. This Russian imperial stout has a smooth/subtle coffee flavor to complement the dark chocolate/roasted malts flavor and the finish is to die for.
   
7. Southern Tier Unearthly Imperial IPA. An aggressive hop bomb that always hits the right spot. Not for those who hate bitter flavors.
8. Brooklyn Black Chocolate Stout. The guy who brews this stuff wrote my favorite beer book of all-time, the only beer book I have ever read, The Brewmaster's Table.
9. Goose Island Imperial IPA. One of my favorite beers by one of my favorite breweries.
   
10. Great Lakes Glockenspiel Weizenbock. This full of alcohol, wheat flavor and some bitterness, but is smooth to the taste. Incredibly drinkable.
    
11. Three Floyds Gumballhead. My favorite wheat ale. Refreshing, with a perfectly bitter bite.
    
12. Unibroue La Fin Du Monde. Can only be described as banana bread beer. It always hits the spot.
13. Port Brewing Co.'s Santa's Little Helper. This drink is ridiculously delicious and drinkably boozy, with a huge malty nose. This beer captures the perfect blend of dark fruit and chocolate flavors with a roasted malts balance. The after taste is to die for.
    
14. Sam Adams Dopple Bock. I can't particularly explain why, but this beer is brilliant. It is even better slightly warm.
15. Sierra Nevada 30th Anniversary. I just had this beer for the first time earlier this week, but it impressed me enough that I was sipping on it exclusively for the evening. This is a darn good dark-chocolate-fused-with-coffee-flavored beer.
16. Founders' Devil Dancer Imperial IPA. This beer is as bitter and alcoholic as they get. Not for the casual beer drinker.
    
17. Goose Island IPA. A staple and a classic. My six-pack of choice when I can't decide.
    
18. Three Floyds Robert The Bruce. Normally, I hate scotch ales. But this is the exception to the rule.
19. Unibroue Éphémère (Apple). I am probably the only person on this planet that truly enjoys this beer. It is what weened me off of Miller Lite and my college-beer days.
20. Dogfish Head 90 minute IPA. Infinitely better than both the 60 minute and 120 minute IPAs.
    

Runners Up:

• Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. A perfect blend of citrus aroma and hoppy flavor. It is my "oh you have this at your bar?" staple when all else fails and the second best beer on tap is Guinness or Fat Tire, which is like 50% of the time.
  
• Sierra Nevada Kellerweis Hefeweizen. A sweet beer with a crisp, refreshing banana and bread flavor.
• Goose Island 312. Ol' Reliable. This is what you drink at a bar, when you have no clue what anything else in bottle at a bar tastes like or when a bar only otherwise has miller/coors/bud on tap.

VH1 Hip Hop Honors

It is safe to say I was not impressed by Sexy Rexy's latest post about the top 10 singles of the year. Mainly because anything other than rap sounds like a garbage disposal to me, and partly because i think Jay-Z ripped off Nas' "NY State of Mind" with "Empire State of Mind". I recently watched the annual VH1 Hip Hop Honors show, where this year they honored men who revolutionized hip hop in different regions of the country. Examples include Timbaland from Virginia Beach, Jermaine Dupri from Hotlanta, and Master P from New Orleans. The show as a whole was entertaining, but two performances stood out from the pack.

1) This was the honorary performance for record producer J. Prince featuring The Game, Juvenile (who tore up the place), and Drake (who is starting to grow on me)

VH1 TV Shows | Music Videos | Celebrity Photos | News & Gossip

2) The second performance was the Jermaine Dupri honorary performance featuring Dupri, Lil Bow Wow (who is still little), Dem Franchize Boyz, Lil Jon, and P. Diddy (who I'm pretty sure was the only rapper lip singing, cause he's too rich to actually do his own singing)

2010 VH1 Hip Hop Honors |Hip Hop Rally Machine |Hip Hop Honors Video

The Best Singles Of 2010

DME, please take a deep breath and wait like a few hours before you write your angry, hatred filled response to why this list is bad.

Unlike movies, this year was a particularly strong year for music. While I am still generally discouraged at the direction that hip hop and rock music is going (hip hop for going towards pop and away from artistry and rock for the direction its been going for the past ten years towards this indie/techno/80's influenced crap) I have been pleasantly surprised at the many singles that have been released this year- especially from hip hop artists. Jay-Z still rules the charts, Eminem revived his former glory after two albums and many years of garbage, and new comers like B.o.B. actually bringing emotion and story telling back to hip hop. I of course am biased (I mean I just admitted to not liking modern rock music) and no list about music will ever be objective. I know DME, a big indie music guy, is already fuming mad by this point and I haven't even listed a single song. But here's my top ten list of 2010.

10) Florence + The Machine "Dog Days Are Over"



I really don't know why I like this song. I think part of it has to do with the original and creative music behind it. Part of it has to do with the catchy clapping behind it. Part of it has to do with the fact that I love Florence's amazing vocals. I have never really taken the time to actually listen to words behind it (in fact I could do that right now while typing this post, but I'm not going to) but I assume by the title of the song and the music that it's about getting over troubles in your life and that wonderful feeling you get when that happens. I imagine if a literal boulder was being taken off of my shoulders this is the song that would be playing when it gets lifted. But I think I mainly just like the song because I can't get it out of my head.

9) Kanye West "Power"



Kanye is an egotistical blow hard and his video for "Power" is nothing short of egotistical. For some reason it only uses the first verse and chorus of the great song but it's something out of a Renaissance painting that's both beautiful and awe-inspiring. But would you expect anything less out of a Kanye West song entitled "Power"?

Not just by DME, but many critics pan West's 2010 album My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy as West's best album and while I disagree, it still is great and I've seen it on most critics top 5 albums of the year. Hell, even a crappy site like Pitchfork named it its #1 album of 2010. So I'd be remissed if I didn't put a Kanye song on here.

"Power" is just another example of why Kanye West is a top 5, maybe even top 3, rapper of all time. It's got an inventive and creative beat and just classic Kanye, ground breaking lyrics. And it's for that reason that I put this song on my list.

8) La Roux "Bulletproof"


You can watch the original music video here

I've actually been working backwards so this is the 8th song I've talked about and not the third. So I'm making this short. What makes this song great is that it's straight out of the 80's. If you hopped in the DeLorean and played this song for Marty McFly, he would think this was the newest single being released on the radio. 80's music a huge guilty pleasure of mine and for many others and this song brings us back to that place where the keytar was king.

7) Eminem f/ Rihanna "Love The Way You Lie"



Eminem's Recovery album was the best selling album of the year and that was fueled by his single "Love The Way You Lie". Eminem is at his best when he's rapping about his personal problems. That's what made his first few albums so great. But then he became the biggest star in the world and soon he had no problems. That in turn created crappy albums like Relapse. But after Eminem took a few years off, he came back with what made him great.

It's no secret that Eminem has a problem with domestic abuse as shown in songs like "Kim" and with his multiple arrests. So when Em expressed his emotions and feelings about the tumultuous relationship that he's been struggling with, it makes for great music.

And then your hear the chorus by Rihanna, who herself is a victim of domestic abuse. When I first heard this song, I would have sworn it was an anti-abuse song. I mean, come on, it's Rihanna singing the hook! But when you listen to the actual lyrics, it's not at all anti-abuse. In fact, it's almost pro-abuse.

But yet the lyrics fit the lives of these two singers perfectly and this song would not be any good if it was anyone else singing or rapping. And for that, "Love The Way You Lie" earns a spot on this list.

6) Cage The Elephant "Ain't No Rest For The Wicked"



Anyone who knows me knows I'm a huge fan of Nirvana/90's rock and classic Rock like The Beatles and The Who. And I think that's part of the reason I love Cage The Elephant so much and its album of the same name. And while this single was released in early 2009, it and the band didn't start getting big until 2010.

My brother convinced me that music is becoming cyclical. We are now in a time where 80's influenced music is king. I mean, just look at a song like "Bulletproof". Most current musicians are young and many of them and the up and comers were born in the 80's and that's the type of music they grew up on. But now that kids in the 90's are soon becoming legal to drink, he believes that grunge and 90's style college rock/alternative will start being more prevalent because that's what new musicians and soon-to-be-musicians grew up on. And I think Cage The Elephant is the beginning of that movement.

"Ain't No Rest For The Wicked" has blues inspired riffs from Stevie Ray Vaughn with a mix of early Red Hot Chili Peppers rock with some The Who cynical-towards-the-world attitude yet with a style that's all the band's own. And it's for that I put this song on this list.

5) B.o.B. f/ Hayley Williams of Paramore and Eminem "Airplanes (Remix)"

You can watch the original music video here

While I never understood why someone would wish for an event to occur just so that event could then in turn create a wish (I mean, why not just wish for the thing you want instead?), you couldn't help but be moved by this song. Plus, you loved to put that chorus as your facebook status/ got sick that everyone and their mother used it as theirs.

What's great about this song is that it's not a rapper trying to make a club hit, it's a rapper trying to explain what's happening in his life. Like what T.I. did in Paper Trails, B.o.B. is doing in "Airplanes". And the reason I chose the remixed version with Eminem over the original, is because I feel the true meaning of the song gets lost with B.o.B.'s original lyrics and the original song. The purpose of the song is to reflect upon how bad his life was and to realize how great he's had it now and to try and capture that feeling of despair he used to have. B.o.B. is telling the listener to keep your chin up because things will get better.

But when I listened to the original lyrics, all that came across was B.o.B. being whiny. He had a hit song and hit record so I was confused why he was bringing up all this stuff in his past. The original lyrics made it sound like he was sick of the fame and fortune and he wanted to go back to his shitty life. And if that's what he was trying to bring across (which I doubt) well then that turns an uplifting, inspiring song into just a whiny, pretentious radio hit.

But with Eminem adding the third and final verse and B.o.B. changing up his lyrics, his message becomes clearer and it's that great message with a great and powerful hook that made this song so great in 2010.

4) Mumford and Sons "Little Lion Man"



The first time I heard this song I was hooked. I loved the simplicity of it and a simple video to go along with it. Love is universal and you can never go wrong singing about it. We as guys have fucked up relationships and it's a crappy feeling. And while this concept is nowhere close to being an original concept in music, it's still done beautifully by Mumford and Sons.

The folksy guitar riff that starts off the song just sets the tone for the four plus minutes that follow it. It's great to hear musicianship being brought back. And the "Don't Fear The Reaper"-esque break down right after the second chorus is a great manifestation of that feeling of despair you have after you realized you fucked up the relationship.

It's a catchy song with great heart, great music, and a universal message and that makes this song so great and earns a spot on this list.

3) Lady Antebellum "Need You Now"



While I generally disrespect and hate country music as a whole, I give it its props when its props are due. Plus, if this song was performed the exact same way but by like Miley Cyrus, no one would call this a country song. This is a pop song.

Everyone has had a late night booty call. We've all gotten drunk and called/ hoped that your lover would come by your side at the end of the night. It's a crappy feeling when you're horny yet come home at night and there's no one there by your side. And never has that feeling come across so beautifully as when Lady Antebellum sings it.

This song is not in the least bit sleezy as you would think. It's about loneliness more than anything. That feeling that you want somebody there with you which just happens to get amplified by the few alcoholic beverages you've had.

Plus, how many times have you texted/ put as your facebook status "It's a quarter after one, I'm a little drunk, and I need you now"

For capturing that feeling that everyone has had, "Need You Now" earns a spot on this list.

2) Janelle Monae f/ B.o.B. and Lupe Fiasco "Tightrope (Wondamix Remix)"


You can watch the remixed music video here

I know a lot of people like the original version featuring Monae's founder Big Boi from Outkast better but I'm in love with the remix. The great part about Monae is that she's helping to bring soul and 60's R&B back to music. If the original had just come up on your iPod you would swear you were hearing a great classic coming out of Motown.

But the remix made the song better. It added a great guitar riff on top of the beat that helps to modernize it yet still get its soul (pun intended) in tact. And not only that, it made me a B.o.B. fan. I know it's Janelle Monae's song and her third rap verse at the end is really good (and I'll take it over a shitty Nicki Minaj verse any day of the week) but it's B.o.B.'s opening verse that I feel truly makes the song.

Monae's and B.o.B.'s clever rhymes (and Lupe's unnecessarily short but good verse) along with a great beat that still makes me dance and I haven't gotten tired of listening to it after four straight months makes this my #2 song of 2010.

1) Jay-Z f/ Alicia Keys "Empire State of Mind"



While technically this song was released in 2009, this song was by far and away THE song of 2010. Plus, Vh1 put this song in their top 15 videos of 2010 so I feel confident putting "Empire State of Mind" on my list.

I personally feel the best hip hop songs are the ones that are either extremely personal to the artist (i.e. "Dead and Gone" by T.I.), something that conveys universal messages (i.e. "The Crossroads" by Bone Thugs-N-Harmony), or something reflecting upon the state of hip hop or Black culture (i.e. "Changes" by Tupac). Empire State of Mind falls into neither of these categories. Yet it's still awesome.

In fact, part of the reason the song is so awesome is because it's so different. Its still got great Jay-Z lyrics and flow like MDMA got you feeling like a champion/The city never sleeps, better slip you an Ambien. I also kind of lied. This song is personal to Jay-Z and is sort if universal to millions of people who live in New York/love the city. It's number two (behind Chicago) as the greatest city in the world (that I've been to). Jay-Z is still so original and is still able to produce fresh lyrics and concepts.

Plus, this song has a great beat. As a buddy of mine once texted to me "Fuck Jay-Z for making a catchy ass song." It's true that "Empire" has a great hook by the talented Alicia Keys and a catchy beat. Now, if it just had a catchy beat but no depth to its lyrics, this song would be on my "hate" list. But alas, it's THE song of 2010.

But for being the song of the year, having a great beat, and awesome-as-always jay-Z lyrics, "Empire State of Mind" earns the top spot as the best song of 2010.

11) Chris Brown "Dueces"
I always love it when personal despair breeds great music
12) Muse "Resistance"
They're the great rock band of the past 10 years and the best "true" form of Rock we have nowadays
13) Cee Lo Green "Fuck You"
"She's an X-Box, and I'm an Atari" We've all had that one love who thinks she's better than us.
14) The Black Keys "Tighten Up"
A great music video to go along with a great, classic sounding rock song
15) Sara Bareilles "King Of Anything"
A great light, poppy break up song from an extremely talented and sort-of-cute songwriter

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part VIII: Actual Players, AFC, Offense

Before you comment or bitch or anything, please read my introduction to this series here and the stats in which I am basing my opinions upon can be found here

Quarterback
Starter: Tom Brady (NE)
Bench: Philip Rivers (SD), Matt Cassel (KC)
Apologies to: Kyle Orton (DEN)

For some reason I thought Rivers has never been selected to a Pro Bowl and I was going to go off on a rant about that. But he's been selected to two before this year. The biggest travesty of the AFC is selecting Peyton Manning over Matt Cassel. Manning is guaranteed to go to the Hall of Fame, has four MVPs, and been to 10 Pro Bowls. When he has a bad year or a fringe year, god forbid we let someone deserving in instead of him.

Running Back
Starter: Arian Foster (HOU)
Bench: Jamaal Charles (KC), BenJarvis Green-Ellis (NE)
Apologies to: Darren McFadden (OAK), Peyton Hillis (CLE), Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)

The third spot for the AFC running back position was so hard for me. Foster and Chalres were locks for me, but choosing one out of the three "apologies to" and The Law Firm was tough and all four deserve to go and I have no problems with any of them. But considering the numbers and touchdowns BJGE has put up with less games and carries than the others and how awesome he does according to Football Outsiders, I chose him.

Wide Receiver
Starter: Brandon Lloyd (DEN), Dwayne Bowe (KC)
Bench: Mike Wallace (PIT), Terrell Owens (CIN)
Apologies to: Reggie Wayne (IND), Andre Johnson (HOU)

Johnson and Wayne got in this year because their reputation put them over the edge. Lloyd and Bowe are the AFC reserves and the only reason they're not starting is because they haven't done it for the past few years. I think Bowe, Wallace, and Lloyd are clear cut Pro Bowlers (Wallace is 2nd in DYAR and 1st in DVOA) and I chose T.O. over Wayne and Andre mainly because of his QB.

Tight End
Starter: Antonio Gates (SD)
Bench: Todd Heap (BAL)
Apologies to: Mercedes Lewis (JAX), Rob Gronkowski (NE)

Gronk doesn't get on the field/ go out to catch all that often because of the Pats many "weapons" so he doesn't get many looks, but when he does he does awesome things with it. Again, another situation where the bench spot is close and I have no problem (especially because the NFL also selects guys to play in the game) to take Lewis over Heap.

Center
Starter: Chris Evans (HOU)
Bench: Dan Koppen (NE)
Apologies to: Nick Mangold (NYJ)

The Jets probably have the best offensive line in football so I have no problem selecting Mangold to start because he's the leader of the line, even though he was an "inferior" blocker than both Koppen and Evans this year. But I have no idea why Pittsburgh's center Maurkice Pouncey was chosen. Not only was he a pretty bad blocker this year (Pittsbugh's center is 22nd in blocking) but the Steelers have a horrible offensive line (according to both FO and Steelers fans. Seriously, watch ONE Steelers game and you can see how bad they are at blocking). So Pouncey's selection, especially over a well respected and former Pro Bowler and the leader of NFL's second best offensive line Dan Koppen seems odd to me.

Left Guard
Starter: Andy Levitre (BUF)
Bench: Wade Smith (HOU)

Left Tackle
Starter: Branden Albert (KC)
Bench: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (NYJ)

Right Guard
Starter: Marshal Yanda (BAL)
Bench: Brandon Moore (NYJ)

Right Tackle
Starter: Ryan O'Callaghan (KC)
Bench: Chris Chester (BAL)

Like in the NFC, it seems to me players get selected mainly upon their names and not upon talent. And seriously, if another team's running back of a safety or something is voting for offensive lineman, they should stop. I believe in both Presidential elections and for All-Star games, if you're not knowledgeable about what you're voting for, don't vote. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen.

Kicker
Starter: Rob Bironas (TEN)

Punter
Starter: Shane Lechler (OAK)

Kick Returner
Starter: Brad Smith (NYJ)
Apologies to: Marc Mariani (TEN)

It seems to be the NFL took the best punt returner in both leagues as they took Hester and Mariani but I choose the better kick off returner in Smith. Both good choices though.

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part VII: Actual Players, NFC, Offense

Before you comment or bitch or anything, please read my introduction to this series here and the stats in which I am basing my opinions upon can be found here

Quarterback
Starter: Michael Vick (PHI)
Bench: Aaron Rodgers (GB), Drew Brees (NO)
Apologies to: Matt Ryan (ATL)

As good of a year as Matt Ryan is having and all the intangibles and all that crap, he is nowhere close to the level or talent or skill of Aaron Rodgers. Although I have no problem taking Matt Ryan, I would take him ahead of the interception prone Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers has been selected to a Pro Bowl before and is well respected in the league so I find it extremely surprising that he didn't get selected.

Running Back
Starter: LeSean McCoy (PHI)
Bench: Adrian Peterson (MIN), Michael Turner (ATL)

St. Louis' Steven Jackson was selected over McCoy and this I'm sure was done based upon pure reputation. I understand that as good as Sam Bradford is he's not an elite quarterback yet and the Rams have a shitty offensive line and that Jackson is a great talent still, but he's done great things with a worse line and worse QB and selecting him over McCoy is a great injustice to a guy who plays in a position that doesn't have a long shelf life and needs every year to be recognized.

Wide Receiver
Starters: Roddy White (ATL), Calvin Johnson (DET)
Bench: Greg Jennings (GB), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Apologies to: Hakeem Nicks (NYG), DeSean Jackson (PHI), Marques Colston (NO)

You can read here about how I feel towards Larry Fitzgerald. DeSean Jackson was selected as the 4th NFC wide out and I think that's a great pick. I don't think Fitzgerald not being sent to Hawaii is as egregious as Rodgers or McCoy but I don't think Fitzgerald should be punished for his awful quarterback. My next choice after him would be Nicks, then Jackson, then Colston.

Tight End
Starter: Jason Witten (DAL)
Bench: Vernon Davis (SF)
Apologies to: Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

Again, another close one between Gonzalez and Davis and Gonzalez got selected over Davis but if I had my way, with essentially all things equal, I'll give more credit to the guy with the crappier quarterback.

Center
Starter: Jonathan Goodwin (NO)
Bench: Shaun O'Hara (NYG)

Left Guard
Starter: Mike Iupati (SF)
Bench: Justin Blalock (ATL)

Left Tackle
Starter: Levi Brown (ARI)
Bench: Frank Omiyale (CHI)

Right Guard
Starter: Harvey Dahl (ATL)
Bench: Chad Clifton (GB)

Right Tackle
Starter: Jason Smith (STL)
Bench: Kareen McKenzie (NYG)

My offensive line data is based upon DVOA and DYAR from Football Outsiders so I think there's an inherent flaw in my analysis to begin with, but I think it's interesting how little actual Pro Bowlers selected are on this list. I think that's because the players are selected based upon reputation and not based upon talent

Kicker
Starter: Ryan Longwell (MIN)

Punter
Starter: Mat McBriar (DAL)

Kick Returner
Starter: Devin Hester (CHI)

My Extended Playlist of Sports Podcasts

A few months ago I started a full time job where I have to wake up at 6:30am everyday! I quickly learned that the day gets boring fast when your just doing work all day, even when your doing work you enjoy. To make the day more enjoyable and go by faster I like to listen to stuff in the background. So I tried bringing a personal radio (with headphones) to work and listing to my local sports talk. It was hard to get good reception in my cubicle though. So after a few days I gave up on the radio. My company blocks many media outlets on our network such as ESPN Pod center so I couldn’t listen to ESPN’s podcast’s the same day they came out. So that leaves me listening to my i-pod and listing to podcast’s from the day before. I also listen to music on my i-pod, but like hearing talk in the background so I try to have good options ready to make me productive!

My favorite podcast are CBS Sports line fantasy football podcast. I find it is the most informative fantasy football podcast out there. I also like both fantasy focus podcast’s with fantasy focus football probably having the slight edge, even though I like baseball better. Those three Podcast are the only sport podcasts I really enjoy and look forward too. I recommend that you check these out.

The other podcasts I listen to are okay, but nothing special. If I wasn’t looking for other stuff to listen to while I was at work I wouldn’t listen to some of them. The BS report with Bill Simmons was highly recommended to me by TBO and it is starting to grow on me. This one is starting to become a borderline must listen to for me. I also listen to Baseball Today, Football Today, and Fantasy Focus Basketball. None of these last three are anything special though and I am trying to get TBO to do a fantasy basketball podcast with me to see how it comes out because of my rant on the lack of fantasy basketball outlets.

Let me know if you have any other good podcasts I should listen to!

Greetings From the Chicago Cubs

You may be surprised to know that I am a fan of the Chicago Cubs. If you’re a loyal reader and have picked up on the hints over the years then you may know that I eat, sleep, and breath CUBBIE BLUE. The Chicago Cubs are always on my mind 365 days a year. Even in the middle on the off season I am day dreaming about their lineup for next year, thinking about who will lead off and what Rehab pitcher they may sign this offseason from Kevin Millwood to Brandon Webb. I make small decisions from scheduling my day around the games to life alerting decisions around my Cubbies. It is for this reason they sent me a Holiday card and I thought I would share it with the loyal GOI readers.

I thought it was pretty cool of them to wish me a Happy Holidays!

Cubsfan4evr1 Back because of Popular Demand

Our loyal Game Of Inches readers who have been reading since we started in December of 2008 know that I used to contribute much more frequent to the blog. For the past year (2010) I didn’t post that much to the blog for a number of reasons. I only posted a few times throughout the year. Now I am planning to post much more this year than I did last year. Even though that is not hard to do! I will not be posting as much as I did back in 2009 when I might have had 40-50 posts a month; I hope to have a few good quality articles a month (4-5) and a few fun ones to pass on to our readers. With Football season winding down, basketball season almost at the half way point, and baseball season a few months away I have a lot of inspiration.

Who Deserves To Be A Pro Bowler? Part VI: Before We Begin

I will do my best in the upcoming week to write a post each day about which players actually deserved to go to the Pro Bowl. Now that the official Pro Bowl selections have been released, every website seems to talk about who deserved to go and who didn't. This site is no exception. I feel strongly about Pro Bowl selections and any All-Star selections need to be correct. I feel this way because it's these selections that determine who goes into the Hall of Fame. For certain positions, like running back and quarterback, one can just look at their career numbers to see if they are Hall of Fame worthy. But for many positions in football, like offensive lineman and safeties, all we really have to go on is reputation and Pro Bowl selections.

So based upon my five previous posts where I just listed the different statistical numbers of every position, I will now tell you loyal readers who deserves to be a Pro Bowler and who does not.

You can read Part I, NFC Offense here
You can read Part II, AFC Offense here
You can read Part III about Larry Fitzgerald here
You can read Part IV, NFC defense here
You can read Part V, AFC defense here

Now for most positions, there is no one statistic that says if they are good or not. I posted a handful of important statistics and I will use my best, objective judgment to synthesize those statistics to give me the best players at each particular position. On the other hand, there are some positions, like offensive lineman and safeties, where I only have one statistic to go off of. It's also these positions that normally I would defer to coaches and NFL players on who they think is the best.

Unfortunately, these players and people know as much about these positions as the average fan does. Many people in the NFL vote solely on reputation and not on the talent and how well they performed in the previous year. I call it the Derek Jeter effect. Last year Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove for SS despite being one of the worst defenders at his position. This is because he gets voted on because everyone at their mother knows who Derek Jeter is.

The best suggestion I've heard to remedy this problem is to have certain positions vote solely on other certain positions. For example, only offensive lineman should be allowed to vote for defensive lineman, only linebackers should be allowed to vote for tight ends, only wide receivers should be allowed to vote for cornerbacks, and if you've never be on the field for kicks, you should not be allowed to vote for special teamers.

But going back to certain positions, like safety, I don't think there will ever be a good statistic to measure that position. Part of being a great safety is solely being in position on the field. Many times, as a safety, you just need to be over the top to deter a quarterback not to throw on your side of the field. And how can you objectively measure a quarterback's decision making by him choosing not to throw a ball?

For offensive lineman, I use Football Outsiders DVOA and DYAR stats for how they measure lineman. However, FO does not rate by specific player, they rank by how well the team blocks. So all I know is say the Jets center is the best blocking center as opposed to FO telling me how good Nick Mangold is. This causes great havoc. Often times players change position (say like crappy Chris Williams moving from tackle to guard) so while Bills LG (hypothetically) is the #1 blocker, that might consist of say two or three players. Injuries could also be a cause of this. This is the biggest criticisms I got on my Michael Oher post. My research indicated that he played in one positions but as Baltimore Ravens fan *politely* told me, he actually ended up playing most of his time in a different position.

Now there are certain players like Aaron Rodgers and LeSean McCoy that their absence from the Pro Bowl has been a glaring and overt travesty. Then there are certain players where I think the actual Pro Bowl selection and my Pro Bowl selection are close. I think a great argument can be made for both players but I personally choose the non-actual selection. I will do my best to try and distinguish between the travesty selections and the "It-Could-Go-Either-Way" selections.

And now that I have all these disclaimers, soon we will begin with the actual selections!