Sexy Rexy's Drafting Tips: Football Edition

Pre-Draft:
1) DO RESEARCH! This may seem obvious, but you'd be surprised on how little this is actually done. A lot of people will draft by name value alone and they haven't really seen how exactly players will turn out. The biggest example of this that I can remember was everyone who drafted LT first last year. LT had the name but it was pretty clear AP would have had the better season, but if you had the #1 pick, you probably went with LT, and was hurt by it. I would also recommend looking up DVOA/DYAR statistics and offensive line statistics on footballoutsiders.com. I have talked about and essentially proven, for the most part, a RB is good because of his O-line, and not necessarily good because of his own talent. I have also essentially proven it's really hard for a QB to put on good stats without a at least one good receiver, so take that into account (i.e. all you Chi-town fans wanting to draft Jay Cutler). But just make sure you're evaluating players based off of numbers and not their name

2) Mock Draft. Now that you know which players who like or dislike, it's extremely helpful to see where other people are evaluating other players. This will not only make you more comfortable when you do finally sit down and draft, but it would also allow you to time to plan a coherent drafting strategy so you can take all the player YOU want to.

3) Realize the importance of RBs. Most leagues will allow you two RB spots and a RB/WR spot. I personally am a big fan of always playing a RB in that RB/WR spot and I'm a big fan of drafting RBs early. Now a man like J.A. Adande will tell you that you can get really good RBs in later rounds (and it's worked out well for him) so you don't need to necessarily draft them early, but realize that it's very hard to win a FF league without having really good RBs. The reason for this is because RB are essentially guaranteed to touch the ball. This essentially guarantees them yardage every game and for the most part they get TDs as well. In fact, on average, a RB will get more TD opportunities and more TDs than a WR. In fact, if I had my choice between an elite wide out and an elite RB (same with just average RB and receivers), I'd take the running back every time. WR are not guaranteed to even get thrown to, nevertheless gain a lot of yards and a QB who puts up great real stats does not really translate into fantasy value a whole lot. Just trust me, if you will go far if you have the RBs as the cornerstone on your league

4) Realize the importance of TDs. In standard leagues, TD are worth much more than yards. If you actively seek players who will get TD opportunities over pure yard guys, you will gain more points in your league. Now obviously yard guys can be extremely valuable and even I will draft them, but go for TDs first.

5) Look at bye weeks. This I think is an underrated philosophy. Your stud players are guaranteed to miss at least one week and you don't want your back ups to miss the same week as well. I also don't recommend drafting your pair of RB or your pair of WR that have the same bye week. If you have two elite backs, then you are guaranteed to lose them for one week and you don't want to lose one week because of this. Trust me, if you're smart you can still get great players who have different bye weeks.

6) Look at League Scoring. I don't think you'll have as much of a problem with this as you would in fantasy baseball, but just take note of it. I was in a FF league last year that put extreme emphasis of QB production. I of course didn't realize this and drafted a shittier QB, because in a normal league, I would have been fine. I obviously lost that league. Just look real quick.

Actual Drafting Strategy:
7) DRAFT YOUR KICKER AND DEFENSE IN THE LAST TWO ROUNDS! I don't know how many times I've seen amateurs waste draft picks by not doing this. Not only will these positions be plentiful during your free agency pool and there will probably be one in FA better than the one you drafted, but in the scheme of things, they will not generate as much points for you as other positions will, for the most part.

8) Only draft one K and one DEF. I know this sort of contradicts my point 5 because these positions will obviously have a bye week as well, but because you can always find quality in the FA pool and because these positions won't generate as much points for you as the other offensive players will, you don't need depth at these positions throughout the course of a season.

9) Don't be lured by the QBs. If you draft Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady in the first or second round, you probably won't be disappointed because I'm sure they will put up dominant numbers, but you can win easily and assuredly by getting QB value later. I personally will draft three dominant RBs, a dominant WR, and a dominant TE before I even think about getting a QB. I think RBs and WRs are the cornerstone of any team, and if you can get quality production out of these positions, any decent QB play will help you. Plus, you will be surprised at the amount of quality QB that will be in your FA pool. QBs are always getting hurt or demoted and you'd be surprised how many quality back ups there are in this league. I was able to win my league last year picking up guys like Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen. I also think there will more more quality QB in the free agency pool that WRs, RBs, and TEs.

10) Overpay for a good TE. The tight ends depth isalways extremely shallow and in reality, most TE don't get thrown to a lot or put up good fantasy numbers. That is why I suggest you do what you can to get an elite TE. Last year Owen Daniels was a great TE, but if you looked at his numbers, they were far from good, he was just better than everyone else. Now if for some reason you miss out on the elite, wait multiple multiple rounds because the difference between the #5 TE and the #12 is probably not far off. Also, look to see who the TE's quarterback is. I don't care what the TE has done in the past, if his QB sucks, he will suck.

11) Draft your stud RBs back up. In the past, if you drafted LT first, you should have also drafted Michael Turner. This is insurance on your best player. That way if your #1 pick goes down, you essentially have a guy who can give you constant production. Don't risk another player picking up your back up or searching the FA pool to replace your stud. And chances are, if a RB is good, the offensive line is really good, and thus that back up will also probably be pretty good as well. Now be weary you might have to overpay for this luxury (i.e. if you drafted DeAngelo Williams first, Jonathan Stewart will go much much earlier than Matt Forte's back up Kevin Jones), but trust me, it will be worth it. And if you don't have two or more K or DEF (and you shouldn't), you should be able to have plenty of room on your bench for the back up.

12) Risk when appropriate. In the later rounds, take a risk on some back ups you think will be good. At that point in your draft, I don't think you'll have many options anyway. But in the first two rounds or so, don't risk at all. Take guys you essentially know WILL perform. The best example I can think of right now is Stephen Jackson. On many mock boards, I've seen him go in the first round, even over guys like Steve Slaton and Chris Johson. Jackson, when he plays, is awesome. But last year he only played in two games. I wouldn't risk a high first round pick on him. Another guy is Matt Forte. In most drafts he's going 4th overall, and as much as I personally love the guy, I don't know how if I would risk that high of a pick on a guy who was so overworked last year as a rookie that he'll probably be injured this year.

13) Speaking of rookies, don't overpay for them. Yes, where ever you drafted AP two years ago worked out extremely well for you, but for the most part, rookie's overall numbers aren't that good. Even the best rookie's average the same fantasy points as their mediocre veteran counterpart. Sure Calvin Johnson did wonders last year, but only put up mediocre numbers his rookie year. There are way more Calvin Johnson examples in FF than AP examples.

14) Be willing to change your draft strategy. Not only should you have back up target players in case the players you were targeting get taken, but be willing to adjust based on what everyone in the league is drafting

Post Draft Day:
15) Always look to get better. As in all fantasy leagues, it never hurts to make trades or pick guys in FA to add to your team. And always think of players by production numbers, not by name value. Name value can help you make trades but don't be afraid to lose a "big name player" you have if they're not or will not perform

16) Look for match ups each week. If you have the best RB in the game, don't bench him just because he's playing the best rushing defense in the league, but always be weary of the match ups each week. Pick up FA guys if they're playing a weak team and bench and start guys the same way. There's a line line between managing and over thinking and I can't tell you where that line is because I over think all the time, but just be weary that that line exists.

17) Don't put too much stock in first quarter of half numbers. Match ups are really hard the first 2-8 weeks of the season because the small sample size the statistics almost makes the stats worthless. But as the season rolls on, then you can look into them more and more. On a similar note, don't necessarily pick up a player because they had an awesome first or second week. My DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal pick ups were better trade bait than fantasy players.

18) Always have fun. I know this is an overused cliche, but realize it's just fantasy football and nothing more. You can care how your team does, but just realize, this for what it is and have fun.

Useful strategies for first time league commissioners:
-Set the playoffs for weeks 14 and 15 and set the final championship game in week 16. Do not do it for week 17 because real life players and coaches don't care about the 17th week because most teams are resting for the playoffs and most teams bench their starters and that will make the championship game pretty dumb.
-Normal scoring points:
QB: 1 pt for every 25 yards, 6 pts for TD, -2 for INT, 2 pts for every 2 pt conversion
RB/WR/TE: 1 pt for every ten yards, 6 pts for every TD, 2 pt for every 2 pt conversion (can do -2 for fumbles if you want)
K: 1 pt for every XPt, 3 pts for every FG
DEF: use websites standards for INT, TD, sacks, fumbles, and opponent yards
-Invite at least 11 more people. Ten team mixed leagues normally aren't fun because everyone has good players and essentially everyone makes it to the playoffs anyway. 12 team leagues usually allow for a nice balance of competitiveness with good available free agents but not too much to make every team good.