Sexy Rexy's Worthless MLB Playoffs Predictions

We here at GOI think that predictions for anything are pretty worthless. The nature and beauty of sports is that you don't know what's going to happen. You take the "greatest" experts in the world and make them play the Pick Em and Beat The Streaks games and I'm sure they'll do just decent at best. It's even worse for baseball playoffs because of the small sample size of the playoffs games.

But with that being said, here are my predictions for the Divisional Series

- Minnesota over New York
- Tampa Bay over Texas
- San Fransisco over Atlanta
- Philadelphia over Cincinnati

I will say, on paper, the four AL playoff teams look like the best four teams in a given playoffs race in recent memory. It's so hard to find a flaw in any of these teams. Sure, you could come up with them- there are question marks after C.C. in the Yankees rotation, Cliff Lee isn't the same pitcher he was since he got traded, etc. But I refuse to believe any of that.

I think all four teams have great rotations with a legitimate ace at the top if it. And I also like at least the 2 and 3 guys in all these teams rotations. Sure Pettitte and Hughes are quote unquote question marks, but let me give you another example of some question marks. In 2008, John Danks and Gavin Floyd were considered question marks and they ended up breaking out and having great seasons. Sure, I don't trust guys like Hughes, CJ Wilson, and Jeff Niemann. But after the damn fine years all these guys have had, would it really be a surprise to you if they go out and throw 7 IP 1 ER ball? Not me.

I also like all these teams bullpens. In a "down year" the Yankees still have a hall of fame close in Mariano Rivera. Rafeal Soriana and Neftali Feliz are top five in the AL in saves and have shut down stuff, and Minnesota has the other 26 teams closers.

And hitting, woo boy, these teams got that. The middle of that Texas line up with Josh Hamilton, Vlad, and Nelson Cruz might be the best offense in the playoffs. And you still have the Yankee payroll/ line up. Sure they're dinged up, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet against them scoring runs a short series, would you? The Rays can be shut out/no hit, but (on paper) you look up and down that line up and it's still a murder's row. And lastly the with Twins, they don't have the pop like the other three teams, but they can get on base and just keep hitting singles after singles after doubles after singles to keep innings alive. In fact in terms of WAR in the AL, Yankees are 1, Twins are 2, Rays are 4, and the Rangers are 7th.

And a similar situation emerges when you look at team defense. In terms of AL UZR/150, the are #1, Twins are 3rd, Yankees are 5th, and Rangers are 6th- and of course all have positive UZR/150.

You look at a team like the Giants and they have (probably) the best pitching staff in baseball but glaring problems and defense (especially in the outfield) and don't have the greatest line up outside of Buster Posey. But when you look at the four AL teams, all four scare me and I struggle to find legitimate problems with each team.

6 comments:

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

This morning I predicted

Rays in 4, Twins in 5, Braves in 3, Phillies in 4

I still say Rays go all the way, so long as Longoria plays

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

Oh shit. Cliff Lee cliff lee'd the Rays. 10 K, 0 BB, 1 run. Maybe I will have to reassess...

Sexy Rexy said...

I agree with you that my favorite at this moment is still the Rays, but after predicted Boston to win it all last year and having them get bounced in the first round, Im just gonna make predictions round by round

PLUS, I love the Rangers too. I really wish it was Rays/Yankees and Twins/Rangers so I can see a Rangers/Rays 7 games series as opposed to a 5 game one

Dmitry said...

You mean Rays can get shut out/no-hit/perfect games - MARK BEUHRLE!!!

Halladay is currently throwing a no-no threw 5.1IP. Ah Oh

I am the top expert and I predict Phills win it all. BOOM just blew your mind

Sexy Rexy said...

Why are you top expert? Just because I can't name any player who played before 2005 doesn't mean I don't know the teams now.

But Philly has a fantastic team with maybe the best rotation out of any playoffs team (maybe 2nd to the Giants. Maybe). A good back end of the bull pen, defense, and pop/ patience in their line up. A great team, and unlike the 2006 Cardinals, it won't be a surprise if they win the WS.

But I still like the Rays. I'm also not 100% convinced they make it past Texas but I like them a lot

Dmitry said...

i think vegas has philly as 2:1 odds to win. considering there are 8 teams in the playoffs, those are pretty strong odds.

I think halladay had the nastiest stuff i have ever seen today. That was sick