Why I'm Starting Mike Williams Over Randy Moss

I'm in four fantasy football leagues, which means I essentially have every football player in the universe on one of my teams and means I'll face every player under the sun. In one ten team league I'm in, my top two wide receivers are Randy Moss and Roddy White. And in this league (starting three wide outs), I am not playing Randy Moss and I am benching him for Seattle's Mike Williams.

It's not that I'm super in love with Mike Williams, it's that I'm not going to start any deep threat against the Jets and Revis Island.

In this league I only have four wide outs (Devin Aromashodu along with White, Moss, and Williams) and I'm absolutely not starting Moss.

The logic I hear for starting Moss facing Revis (mainly from the Fantasy Focus podcast) is that Moss is still an awesome talent, I think he'll be a top 3 wide out at the end of the year, and I drafted Moss to do awesome things for my team. But you know what, all I care at the end of the day is the fantasy points a guy puts up for me. I don't care about name brand or the numbers I think a player will put up in the future when I'm doing a start and sit for each individual week. All I care about is how I think a player will perform in that particular week.

In 2009, the Patriots faced the Jets in Week Two in the Meadowlands. In that game, Moss had four catches for 24 yards. In Week 11 at Gillete Stadium, Moss had five catches for 34 yards. These are not good numbers for a fantasy wide out. In fact, Andre Johnson put up similar numbers like this in Week One of 2010 and all AJ owners (including me) were super pissed about this. I still think Johnson will be the best wide receiver in 2010, but that doesn't mean he'll put up #1 wide out numbers every single week.

And speaking of the #1 overall wide out of 2009, when Johnson went up against Revis in Week One, Andre had four catches for 35 yards. Here are some other big name wide outs who had good fantasy years who went up against Darrelle Revis:

Week Four: Marques Colston (2 catches for 33 yards)
Week Six: Terrell Owens (3 catches for 13 yards)
Week Ten: Mike Sims-Walker (3 catches for 49 yards)
Week Twelve: Steve Smith (CAR): (1 catch for 5 yards)

Revis' awesomeness is extremely well documented. In fact, Nate Ravitz (Jets fan and a member of the aforementioned Fantasy Focus podcast) wrote a great article last year about Revis.

But Sexy Rexy, didn't you watch last week's MNF game and see Anquan Boldin go off for 7 receptions for 110 yards? Very valid point, and considering Joe Flacco just looked OK and the Ravens number one wide out had awesome fantasy numbers, why wouldn't you start Moss?

The difference between Boldin and the other receivers I mentioned is the type of receiver Boldin is compared to the receivers that Moss and Johnson are.

In last week's Ravens/Jets game, Boldin was mainly used in the slot whereas Derrick Mason played on the edge of Revis' side and T.J. Houshmandzadeh mainly played on Antonio Cromartie's side. And do you want to see Mason's numbers last week? 2 catches for 21 yards.

That is why I am predicting a very good game for Wes Welker, who I believe will be used very very similarly to how Boldin was used in Week One. Both Welker and Boldin are slot guys with high catch rates who love to run after the catch. I think Moss will be played on Revis whereas Welker will be played on a linebacker or safety- and NOT Darrelle Revis.

This week, I ranked Randy Moss as my 39th best wide receiver. So in a ten team league, I don't think Moss is a starter. Now on my list I also ranked Williams at the 40th best, but you know what, I'm willing to take that risk. If Mike Williams has a bad game, then I think he and Moss will put up similar numbers. But if Mike Williams goes off, then I look like a genius! Yes, because of the talent of Moss and the genius of Belichick, Moss could end up with a great day. But I really don't think he will. I'm also willing to take that "risk".

The point is, I think all Randy Moss owners should bench him this week. I know it's a bold and gutsy call and it hurts you in your heart, but I think it will pay off for you when you see how well the receiver you start does as opposed to Moss.

Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Two

QUARTERBACKS

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB vs. BUF)
2. Peyton Manning (IND vs. NYG)
3. Michael Vick (PHI @ DET)
4. Tony Romo (DAL vs. CHI)
5. Matt Schaub (HOU @ WAS)
6. Drew Brees (NO @ SF)
7. Philip Rivers (SD vs. JAC)
8. Tom Brady (NE @ NYJ)
9. Brett Favre (MIN vs. MIA)
10. Jay Cutler (CHI @ DAL)
11. Donovan McNabb (WAS vs. HOU)
12. Kyle Orton (DEN vs. SEA)
13. Eli Manning (NYG @ IND)
14. Joe Flacco (BAL @ CIN)
15. Carson Palmer (CIN vs. BAL)
16. Jason Campbell (OAK vs. STL)
17. Vince Young (TEN vs. PIT)
18. Matt Cassel (KC @ CLE)
19. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA @ DEN)
20. Matt Ryan (ATL vs. ARI)
21. Chad Henne (MIA @ MIN)
22. Alex Smith (SF vs. NO)
23. Dennis Dixon (PIT @ TEN)
24. Sam Bradford (STL @ OAK)
25. David Garrard (JAC @ SD)

RUNNING BACKS

1. Chris Johnson (TEN vs. PIT)
2. Adrian Peterson (MIN vs. MIA)
3. Steven Jackson (STL @ OAK)
4. Frank Gore (SF vs. NO)
5. LeSean McCoy (PHI @ DET)
6. Ray Rice (BAL @ CIN)
7. DeAngelo Williams (CAR vs. TB)
8. Michael Turner (ATL vs. ARI)
9. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG @ IND)
10. Pierre Thomas (NO @ SF)
11. Jamaal Charles (KC @ CLE)
12. Michael Bush (OAK vs. STL)
13. Arian Foster (HOU @ WAS)
14. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC @ SD)
15. Jonathan Stewart (CAR vs. TB)
16. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT @ TEN)
17. Ryan Mathews (SD vs. JAC)
18. Ronnie Brown (MIA @ MIN)
19. Cedric Benson (CIN vs. BAL)
20. Brandon Jackson (GB vs. BUF)
21. Matt Forte (CHI @ DAL)
22. Joseph Addai (IND vs. NYG)
23. Knowshon Moreno (DEN vs. SEA)
24. Shonn Greene (NYJ vs. NE)
25. Clinton Portis (WAS vs. HOU)
26. Jahvid Best (DET vs. PHI)
27. Jerome Harrison (CLE vs. KC)
28. Reggie Bush (NO @ SF)
29. Justin Forsett (SEA @ DEN)
30. Darren McFadden (OAK vs. STL)
31. Felix Jones (DAL vs. CHI)
32. Chris "Beanie" Wells (ARI @ ATL)
33. Carnell "Cadillac" Williams (TB @ CAR)
34. C.J. Spiller (BUF @ GB)
35. Tim Hightower (ARI @ ATL)
36. Ricky Williams (MIA @ MIN)
37. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ vs. NE)
38. Peyton Hillis (CLE vs. KC)
39. Thomas Jones (KC @ CLE)
40. Fred Jackson (BUF @ GB)
41. Willis McGahee (BAL @ CIN)
42. Brandon Jacobs (NYG @ IND)
43. Chester Taylor (CHI @ DAL)
44. Marion Barber (DAL vs. CHI)
45. Darren Sproles (SD vs. JAC)
46. Correll Buckhalter (DEN vs. SEA)
47. Leon Washington (SEA @ DEN)
48. Fred Taylor (NE @ NYJ)
49. Steve Slaton (HOU @ WAS)
50. Bernard Scott (CIN vs. BAL)

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson (HOU @ WAS)
2. Miles Austin (DAL vs. CHI)
3. Reggie Wayne (IND vs. NYG)
4. DeSean Jackson (PHI @ DET)
5. Greg Jennings (GB vs. BUF)
6. Roddy White (ATL vs. ARI)
7. Calvin Johnson (DET vs. PHI)
8. Jeremy Maclin (PHI @ DET)
9. Wes Welker (NE @ NYJ)
10. Brandon Marshall (MIA @ MIN)
11. Marques Colston (NO @ SF)
12. Steve Smith (CAR vs. TB)
13. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI @ ATL)
14. Anquan Boldin (BAL @ CIN)
15. Malcolm Floyd (SD vs. JAC)
16. Percy Harvin (MIN vs. MIA)
17. Steve Smith (NYG @ IND)
18. Michael Crabtree (SF vs. NO)
19. Chad Ochocinco (CIN vs. BAL)
20. Dwayne Bowe (KC @ CLE)
21. Devin Aromashodu (CHI @ DAL)
22. Brandon Lloyd (DEN vs. SEA)
23. Mike Sims-Walker (JAC @ SD)
24. Johnny Knox (CHI @ DAL)
25. Hakeem Nicks (NYG @ IND)
26. Mike Wallace (PIT @ TEN)
27. Steve Breaston (ARI @ ATL)
28. Dez Bryant (DAL vs. CHI)
29. Hines Ward (PIT @ TEN)
30. Donald Driver (GB vs. BUF)
31. Devery Henderson (NO @ SF)
32. Eddie Royal (DEN vs. SEA)
33. Santana Moss (WAS vs. HOU)
34. Braylon Edwards (NYJ vs. NE)
35. Pierre Garcon (IND vs. NYG)
36. Terrell Owens (CIN vs. BAL)
37. Lee Evans (BUF @ GB)
38. Derrick Mason (BAL @ CIN)
39. Randy Moss (NE @ NYJ)
40. Mike Williams (SEA @ DEN)
41. Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE vs. KC)
42. Chris Chambers (KC @ CLE)
43. Kevin Walter (HOU @ WAS)
44. Legedu Naanee (SD vs. JAC)
45. Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK vs. STL)
46. Jacoby Jones (HOU @ WAS)
47. Josh Cribbs (CLE vs. KC)
48. Dexter McCluster (KC @ CLE)
49. Laurent Robinson (STL @ OAK)
50. Nate Washington (TEN vs. PIT)
51. Bernard Berrian (MIN vs. MIA)
52. Jabar Gaffney (DEN vs. SEA)
53. Devin Hester (CHI @ DAL)
54. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ vs. NE)
55. Nate Burleson (DET vs. PHI)
56. Roy Williams (DAL vs. CHI)
57. Anthony Gonzalez (IND vs. NYG)
58. Deion Branch (SEA @ DEN)
59. Lance Moore (NO @ SF)
60. Mike Williams (TB @ CAR)

Fantast Football Doctor: Week 2 Pick Ups

Analogous to what David "MVP" Eckstein does for The Hardball Times, I'm going to do for all you GOI fans. I promise I originally came up with the idea of doing (at least I will try and do) a weekly pick up column after watching Michael Vick run and have is way with the Packers. But then I started reading some of DME's THT stuff and I really like the format they use. So I'm going to steal it. A small tweak, I'm going to rank my pick ups (because in a league like the GOI league where all players go into waivers every week so you have to put out waiver claims and you have to rank your waiver claims) in order of where you should rank your waiver claims

1) Brandon Jackson | Green Bay | RB | 33% Yahoo! ownership

My guess is that Jackson's high ownership is because of many leagues that do not have a waiver wire system and that you can pick up any player at any time. With Ryan Grant officially out for the entire year, everyone needs to pick up Jackson. I know he didn't get the goal line TD, but he's going to be the clear cut #1 starting RB in Green Bay. Remember folks, Grant was no top tier draft pick. At one point he was the Giants #5 RB (behind Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw, and Droughs) and he was better than Samkon Gado. Yes, an "In Gado We Trust" reference. Last year Green Bay ranked eighth in run blocking offensive lines, which bodes well for any running back.

Nevertheless, Jackson will be a starting running back on a very good offensive team. Even if you have like Ray Rice and DeAngello Williams (which I do have in a very shallow league), Jackson can at least be used on your bench/ for trade bait.

In FAAB leagues I would waste all my money on Jackson. Very rare will a starting RB come into the league that isn't on somebody's bench already.

2) Michael Vick | Philadelphia | QB | 22% Yahoo! ownership

Not only is he on an Andy Reid team (which throws it 60% of the time) but Vick will get rushing yards (it's easier to rack up fantasy points with rushing yards than passing yards) and he looked really good against a very good defense in Green Bay. Last week Vick led all Eagles in carries and rushing yards (in fact he was top 5 of all players in rushing yards). And ESPECIALLY if you lost Kevin Kolb, you need to get Vick.

If Kolb also went down for the rest of the reason I would rank Vick as my 9th best QB of the year. Vick looked accurate, has some great receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, and is a more proven quarterback than Kevin Kolb is.

Now I do think when Kolb is healthy, he will be the clear cut starter and there will be no controversy. I don't think you trade away Donovan McNabb just to start Vick when you have the opportunity to start Kolb. But concussions are a funny injury and it wouldn't surprise me if Kolb came back in two weeks or eights weeks.

3) Brandon Lloyd | Denver | WR | 8% Yahoo! ownership

Now I play mainly in very deep leagues this year and where the WR depth is scarce so Llyod is a more attractive offer to me, but I like him a lot. In the preseason the debate with whether the Denver WR you wanted was Eddie Royal or Jabar Gaffney. But if Lloyd is healthy, I think you want him over either of those two guys (and I like Royal a lot). Now, yes, Lloyd is an Illinois alum so I'm extremely EXTREMELY biased, but last week he led all Denver wide outs in receiving yards and fantasy points. While Royal got 10 targets, Lloyd got 8, more than half of Gaffney (3).

I've seen Lloyd play in Chicago and a little bit everywhere else and I'm a big fan of his talent, but he's never been able to stay healthy. But when on the field, I like him a lot. But when, not if but when, he goes down, I like Royal. Not only did I like him in the preseason (I have two board bets with Royal vs. Thomas against Cubsfan and Royal v. Gaffney vs. FFSpin) but Jabar Gaffney hasn't done anything in the pros yet. And he had Tom Brady throwing to him at one point.

4) Peyton Hillis | Cleveland | RB | 10% Yahoo! ownership

The Browns just do not like Jerome Harrison. With Montario Hardesty getting injured, everybody thought Harrison would be a legit #1 back and thus be fantasy useful. But last week, both Hillis and Harrison got the same amount of carries (9). While I think Harrison is the better talent and better player, I will still take a guy who at least is getting consistent carries.

I like Peyton Hillis because two years ago, when I won the 'Game of Inches' league (I put that in quotes because this years GOI league essentially has the same fantasy owners as my league did two years ago) I picked up Peyton Hillis because the Broncos, without hyperbole, had lost at least five of their starting runnings backs and were forced to stat Hillis- who did very well.

So if the Browns are going to continue to feed Hillis the rock, I'm going to continue to tout him.

5) Mark Clayton | St. Louis | WR | 20% Yahoo! ownership

I only like Clayon for the deepest of leagues. That Rams offensive line is terrible which in turn will make Sam Bradford not that good. I love the talent of Bradford and with time and a MUCH improved offensive line and this young receiving corps, I have no doubt Bradford could be very good one day. Just not this year. And it's not like Mary Clayton was a stud during his stint in Baltimore.

But he did catch 10 balls for 119 yards on Sunday. I know St. Louis will be down all year and thus will be forced to throw. But that happened last year and it's not like any Rams outside of Steven Jackson were any good last year. You can be down and throwing like in Carolina and just not be effective/ give up INTs and such.

But despite everything negative I have just said I think if you have the bench room, Clayton is a nice flyer because he still is by far and away the best receiver the Rams have, he so far has good chemistry with Bradford, and the Rams will be throwing a lot. And I did rank Clayton as my 39th best wide out (which is a start in 14+ 3 wide out leagues).

Guys I'm not yet sold on:
(These are guys who I'm not yet ready to recommend. Guys I'm not completely sold that they will continue to put up good fantasy numbers in the future but won't be surprised if they do)

Legedu Naanee | San Diego | WR | 26% Yahoo! ownership

Philip Rivers is awesome so I don't doubt he can make Naanee put up better numbers than even Naanee thought possible. But I think think Malcolm Floyd puts up the best fantasy numbers of any wide out there (assuming Vincent Jackson doesn't immediately play after his suspension, and I don't think Jackson will play a down for San Diego this year). Last year, Floyd was 7th in DVOA (essentially value per play weighted against defense played) and 18th in DYAR (essentially total value weighted against defense played). This made him better than DeSean Jackson, Derrick Mason, and Brandon Marshall in the limited amount of time Floyd played. So when Floyd far and away led the Chargers in targets yet had a bad fantasy game and Naanee had the good one, I don't trust that Naanee will continue to be the wide out that has the good day. I want to see what he can do with Floyd starts to go off (or continuously not catch passes).

Austin Collie | Indianapolis | WR | 72% Yahoo! ownership

How often will you see Collie led all Colts receivers in receiving yards? My guess is this happens once, MAYBE twice the rest of the year. He had some great games last year but I think Garcon and Wayne will continue to take "catches" away from Collie and I believe Anthony Gonzalez will too. As good as Peyton Manning is, he can't throw 400+ yards EVERY game to give three Colts wide out great fantasy days. For the rest of the year I rank Colts receivers 1. Reggie Wayne 2. Pierre Garcon 3. Anthony Gonzalez 4. Austin Collie. I think this game is a fluke unless Collie shows me otherwise. The burden of proof is on you Austin!

Mohamed Massaquoi | Cleveland | WR | 49% Yahoo! ownership

This guy was a highly touted sleeper last year and did nothing. He's on a bad team, he has Turnover McGee and a Derek-Anderson-quality (still) QB in Jake Delhomme throwing to him and he only got 2 catches for 46 yards but had a good fantasy day because he caught a touchdown.

Carson Palmer | Cincinnati | QB | 92% Yahoo! ownership

Palmer was a top 5 quarterback in the league during his first four years in the NFL. But then in a playoff game in 2008, he tore up his knee. Since then he's never been the same. I drafted Palmer last year as my back up because he had more than a year to recover from his surgery, he had his boy Chad Ochocinco to throw to, yet put up a disappointing season. He just didn't look the same. I joked with Scott Pashley of FFSpin during our podcast, that before Sunday's game, I could make the argument that the best USC quarterback in the game right now was Matt Cassel. It would not shock me one bit if Palmer becomes a top 10 quarterback again because the man clearly has talent a good receiving corps, but I need to see more- especially in front of a better defense than New England.

GOI Fantasy Baseball Update

Box Score Tonight: Football/ MNF Edition

• I know there are Jets fans that read GOI, and while I appreciate your reading, I'm sorry but I have to bash your offense. The Jets remind me of the preseason Seattle Mariners: looked like the best defense in the league but a huge question mark on how the team will put points on the board. Let's hope the Jets don't end up with the same winning percentage as the Seattle Mariners.
  
• Matt Leinart got criticized for being Captain Checkdown yet Mark Sanchez is awesome! What? Even when he needed to drive 70 yards downfield for a game winning drive, he checked down to is TE /RB.
  
• Sanchez put up awful numbers at the end of the day. Less than 75 passing yards, no TDs or INTs, a 3.5 YPA, and a passer rating of 56.4. Even Derek Anderson threw a TD.
  
• Not only did L.T. LOOK good, he led all NY backs in yards (62) and carries (11). He also had a great 5.6 YPC. He also was 2^nd among all passers in targets (4) and yards (16) and t-first in receptions (2).
  
• Shonn Grenne (6) got half as many total touches as L.T. (13) and looked awful.
  
• Jericho Cotchery leads all New York receivers in yards with 18.
  
• Jets third down conversions: 1 for 11
  
• There were times when Joe Flacco looked amazing and times when he missed wide open receivers (like in the end zone to Le'Ron McClain). He ended up with 248 yards, no TDs, one INT, and a really bad 52.6% completion percentage. I'm still not worried about him.
  
• In the preseason I was wondering how anybody would be able to throw on the Jets. I got my answer last night: throw it up against Antonio Cromartie and get a pass interference penalties along with destroying the Jets rookies and safeties. Still no one was able to throw on Darrell Revis.
  
• Surprisingly an opponent's #1 wide out has a great game against the Jets. Anquan Boldin gets 7 catches on 10 targets for 110 yards.
  
• Ray Rice does nothing. The Jets run defense looked AMAZING. Rice's final numbers: 43 yards on 21 carries with his longest play being 7 yards. He also catches 2 passes on 4 targets for 19 yards.
  
• Despite Rice clearly being the #1 back in Baltimore and ending up with -2 yards on 6 carries, Willis McGahee gets the goal line carries and the lone TD of the game
  
• Todd Heap gets 6 catches on 11 targets and although it looked like Housh was far more involved in the game, T.J. Who's-Your-Mama gets 1 catch for 27 yards on 4 targets.
  
• Kansas City defeated San Diego 21-14. If only some intelligent, handsome young man had predicted KC to do well in the AFC West and win at home. Oh wait…
  
• This just in, Jamaal Charles is awesome. 92 yards on 11 carries and a TD (along with a 56 yard TD run in the first quarter).
  
• Both Charles and Thomas Jones got 11 carries in the game. Jones' average: 3.5. Charles' average: 8.4. For fantasy purposes: I now have to put Charles in the Jonathan Stewart category- might only get 12-15 carries a game, but can easily get 100 yards and a TD with those carries.
  
• I thought T.J. was a dumb signing when K.C. got him and Charles needs to get 20 carries a game
  
• Matt Cassel does his best Mark Sanchez impression: 10 for 22 with 68 yards. At least Cassel got a TD with his no interceptions.
  
• Dwayne Bowe gets five targets. Chris Chambers, Dexter McCluster, and TE Tony Moeaki each get 4. Moeki gets the TD. If you saw how many passing yards Cassel got, you can guess how many yards each receiver caught for.
  
• Ryan Matthews gets 19 carries but only nets 75 yards and an early fumble
  
• From watching the game I thought Darren Sproles was a lot more involved in the game. But he ended up with five carries (for 3 yards) and two catches on three targets for two yards.
  
• Legedu Naanee, not Malcolm Floyd, got over 100 receiving yards (110) and a TD (5 receptions on 8 targets.) However Floyd by far away led the team in targets (12) and was targeted twice in the red zone at the end of the game to try and win it. However he pulled his best Larry Fitzgerald impression and only got 3 receptions, but minus the TD.
  
• No need to mention Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates. Both are awesome and really good at football. 'Nuff said.

Game Of Inches Football Results: Week One

Pigskin Pick 'Em

1) Sexy Rexy (13-3)
Clutch Games: Kansas City over San Diego; Houston over Indy
WTF Games: N/A

2) Cubsfan (11-5)
Clutch Games: Seattle over San Fran; Baltimore over New York (AFC)
WTF Games: Picking Cleveland over Tampa Bay

3) The 'Bright' One (10-6)
Clutch Games: Baltimore over New York (AFC); Jacksonville over Denver
WTF Games: Picking Carolina over New York (NFC) and Atlanta over Pittsburgh

Fantasy Football GOI League

Sexy Rexy: (W) (1-0), 6th overall, 4th in Michelle Beadle division
Cubsfan: (W) (1-0), 3rd overall, 2nd in Erin Andrews division
TBO: (L) (0-1), 12th overall, 6th in Erin Andrews division

Notables:
- Cubsfan defeats TBO 101.5 to 79
- Cubsfan lost Ryan Grant for the year and Kevin Kolb for a few weeks

TBO Fantasy Baseball Med School League

Yours truly TBO is represented by the neon green line and it beautifully documents my journey to first place. After not managing the team until mid may, I have been tweaking my team in just the perfect ways to get back to first place. I was down nearly 40 points to my buddy Mitchell when the summer began, but have finally caught up to him this morning! In fact, I have made some very bold adds/drops on this team to specifically add to my stolen base and average totals. Something I probably wouldn't do in our GOI fantasy leagues because there is actual money on the line. Hopefully I can use some of the strategies I learned in this league to take down the "expert league" in the coming years.

Just like Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have done, I wish to one day win the grand slam of fantasy sports. Win the snake draft/auction draft baseball, auction draft football, and snake draft GOI basketball league, preferably in the same calendar year. I am The 'Bright' One. How do I not have any championship rings yet!?

My Quick Thoughts On The Chicago Bears

• Jay Cutler looked awesome. The interception was his fault (he under threw the receiver, which I believe was Aromashodu) and one of his two TDs was all Matt Forte (if you saw the game you know which one), but Cutler still looked good. He looked very mobile, made great decisions (something he didn't do last year), took the sack/hit instead of trying to make a play, and overall looked awesome. But we need to take this game in stride, it was against then Lions. Also, Cutler needs to do what no other QB in Bears history has seemed to do- create scoring drives. Putting up stats is all fine dandy but at the end of the day I need him to throw TDs and not play awful when he smells the red zone.
  
• Matt Forte was like my abusive boyfriend. Every time he hit me (i.e fumbled, made a bad play) he does something to make me fall back in love with him (i.e. 151 receiving yards and 2 TDs)
  
• Speaking of Forte, in his 2 years in Chicago he has NEVER been able to get that one tough yard on the goal line to get a TD. In fact, last year Forte was third among backs getting carries inside the opponents 10 (36) and 5^th among back getting carries inside the opponent's five yard line (19). Yet Forte only ended up with FOUR rushing TDs. Last year, Aaron Rodgers had more rushing TDs than Forte. At this point I blame Lovie Smith for sticking with Forte
  
• SIDENOTE: I LOVE the fact that Lovie went for it on 4^th and goal. It sucks that the Bears didn't get away with any points, but I love the cahones.
  
• Chester Taylor looked awesome as well. I wanted him to get more touches but with Forte being so awesome, I'm conflicted
  
• This offensive line is pure garbage. I'm extremely concerned Cutler doesn't play more than 8 games because he's taking his lumps.
  
• I'm done with Greg Olson. I can handle fumbles (sort of) when you play like DeSean Jackson. But you can't play poorly AND cough up the ball.
  
• Cutler seems to be looking for D.A. a lot and I'm thinking my prediction of Knox being a better fantasy WR than D.A. won't come true. But as a Bears fan I'm glad. D.A. could be a legit #1 wide out and he needs the targets like a legit number one.
  
• This rushing defense looked amazing. I know Best had 2 rushing TDs but only 20 yards on 14 carries. And the D looked awesome.
  
• I might have been a bit premature on calling Brian Urlacher done. Again, it's the Lions, but Urlacher looked really good along with this linebacking corps.
  
• I don't know what to think about this passing D. Shaun Hill looked AWFUL, but he's also Shaun Hill. Stafford didn't look THAT much better but he's also Matthew Stafford. Calvin Johnson could have and should have (and did on his TD) had his way with Chicago's defensive backs because he's so much taller, faster, and stronger than all of them. This worries me when guys like Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss and Miles Austin come to town. I still have a little faith in Zack Bowman. But very very little.
  

Box Score Tonight: Week One/ Late Games Edition

• Derek Anderson sucks. He only completed a little under 54% of his passes. This is the career of Derek Anderson folks.
  
• I'm legitimately starting to worry about Larry Fitzgerald. He can't get a touchdown EVERY week to mask his 3 catches for 43 yards
  
• Finally, ONE of my fantasy sleepers that I own does well. Steve Breaston has a monster game: 7 catches for 132 yards.
  
• Beanie Wells doesn't play, I'm assuming injury. Wells was extremely injury prone in college and guess what, he'll probably be injury prone in the pros. Tim Hightower does a fine job starting with his 4.3 YPC on only 13 carries- plus a TD
  
• Arizona had 7 fumbles in the game: 2 each by Anderson and Hightower. I guess they're taking tips from Vince Young and AD. Some no name wide out on the Cardinals (Max Komar) only caught 2 catches on 3 targets but had three fumbles. Way to earn your spot on the team.
  
• Sam Bradford was asked to do a lot: 55 attempts. It's St. Louis so I'm guessing they're going to ask him to throw a lot to try and make up for the fact that they're losing 21-0 by the half. Bradford had an average completion percentage (58.1) but 3 INTs to go along with only one touchdown.
  
• Mark Clayton heard from his brother Michael that a political investigation/thriller was going on about him but if he has a monster game, the investigation will stop. I guess it's gonna stop because Clayton catches 11 passes for 119 yards on sixteen targets.
  
• Because I masturbate to all 3 Illini alums in the pros, TE Michael Hoowoomadwefdbwqehjwqehfdwi catches one pass for 8 yards.
  
• Stephen Jackson had a disappointing 3.7 YPC
  
• I think Pete Carrol is cheating in the pros as well. The Seahawks pull off a monster win against the 49ers 31-6
  
• So far the Seattle RB job is not Forsett's. He got 7 carries, Julius Jones got 8, Leon Washington got 6. Forsett was by far the better RB with 6.1 YPC. Jones and Washington got 2.3 and 2.0 respectively. Forsett was the only back to get any receptions (3).
  
• Trendy sleeper Mike Williams led all Seahawks wide outs in yards (64), targets (6), and receptions (4). But only "Deion's" get touchdowns. Deion Branch and Deon Butler each catch one.
  
• Frank Gore decided to pull a Michael Turner with his 2.2 YPC. Only 38 yards on 17 carries. But he salvaged his fantasy day (especially for me) by getting 6 receptions for 45 yards.
  
• Ted Ginnnnnnn Jr. (1 catch, 19 yards) had a better day than Michael Crabtree (2 catches, 12 yards)
  
• Vernon Davis has the best San Fransisco receiver day: 8 catches for 73 yards.
  
• For some reason Alex Smith was asked to throw it 45 times. He responded by being Alex Smith, completing a little under 58% of his passes with 2 INT and 0 TDs.
  
• I loved the old school unis the Eagles were rocking today. And as TBO responded, "I love the old school Michael Vick, the Eagles were rocking today"
  
• Speaking of which, Brian Cushing destroys Kevin Kolb (a la Peppers to Stafford a few hours earlier) giving Kolb a concussion and forcing him to leave the game. Vick ends up having a better passer rating than Kolb and his foe Aaron Rodgers and looked a lot better than I thought he would. Vick also led the Eagles in rushing attempts (11) and yards (103)
  
• LeSean McCoy only gets 7 carries. Welcome to an Andy Reid team. McCoy also does his best Brian Westbrook impression and leads all Eagles in receptions (5) and yards (47)
  
• Jason Avant (4) got just as many receptions as Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. Maclin gets the TD though. Jason Avant was the best receiver ever in my 2008 Madden team I created. No seriously, in the game I made him better than what Andre Johnson is in real life.
  
• Aaron Rodgers puts up really bad numbers: 19 for 31 for only 188 yards and had just as many TDs as INTs: 2.
  
• Greg Jennings finally catches a TD pass (and he was WIDE open on the play, just like Jenna Jameson). He also had 10 targets, 5 receptions, and 82 yards. Old man Donald Driver also catches a TD pass.
  
• As if Cubsfan's GOI fantasy team didn't take enough of a hit with Kevin Kolb getting injured, Ryan Grant also leaves the game after an impressive 5.6 YPC on 8 carries. Brandon Jackson fills in getting 63 yards on 18 carries. Full back John Kuhn gets the TD run.
  
• Trendy sleeper TE Jermichael Finley has an average day: 4 receptions for 47 yards.
  
• Washington pulls off the upset beating Dallas 13-7.
  
• Marion Barber and Felix Jones have essentially identical rushing numbers. Both had 8 carries. Barber got 39 yards. Jones got 38. Neither had a TD. Tashard Choice gets 5 carries. It's still a cluster fuck at the RB position.
  
• For anyone who doubted Miles Austin because you were dumb and thought "Oh, he only put up pro bowl numbers in 13 games and that's it" then you were proven wrong today. On 11 targets, Austin catches 10 of them for 143 yards and the lone TD of the game for either offense. I guess you don't have to be an overrated back up and can actually have talent to date Kim Kardashian.
  
• Dez Braynt led all Cowboys receivers in targets (12) and was their second best receiver behind Austin.
  
• Clinton Portis is the #1 back in Washington. He got 18 carries but a meager 3.5 YPC to go along with it.
  
• Santana Moss and Chris Cooley each get 9 targets and 6 receptions. Cooley led all Redskins receivers with 80 yards and Moss was second with 77.
  
• I guess Donovan McNabb can't focus without an entire city being pissed at him and yelling racial slurs at him. His line: 15 for 32 with 171 yards and zero touchdowns or interceptions.

Box Score Tonight: Week One/Early Games Edition

• I'm glad to see Illinois alum Pierre Thomas get 19 carries. He deserves to get 15-20 every game and I thought he looked really good.
  
• According to the box score, Marques Colston had 6 targets and caught five of them. It looked to me like he had at least three passes go his way that he could have caught but didn't. I'm thinking somebody fudged this one
  
• Two years ago Lance Moore was New Orleans receivers. Last year it was Robert Meachum. Could this year be Devery Henderson's year? 38 yards (second among all Saints receivers) and a touchdown.
  
• Brett Favre looked like Brett Favre. And Jay Cutler from last year.
  
• For those that liked Bernard Berrian because Sidney Rice went down: 3 targets, one catch for 3 yards.
  
• The Houston Texans are really good. I predicted them to win the division and a HUGE win over Indy is a good start.
  
• Arian Foster got 33 carries. And he made the very most out of those carries netting 231 rushing yards and 3 TDs.
  
• Matt Schaub only threw it 17 times for under 115 yards. But I guess it's hard to throw when you're handing it off to Foster.
  
• Jacoby Jones got 4 more targets than Kevin Walter but both got 2 receptions for 29 yards. And Walter had a touchdown.
  
• In case you didn't know it, Peyton Manning is really really good. 57 attempts but 433 yards and 3 TDs. One to Collie, Garcon, and Wayne.
  
• Collie- the only Colts receiver to go over 100 yards.
  
• I'm starting to think my Anthony Gonzalez prediction won't pan out well for me. 3 targets/1 reception/12 yards.
  
• A lot of hype was made about Jabar Gaffney being the number one receiver out of Denver (and he had a touchdown). But Eddie Royal led all Broncos receivers in targets (10) with 98 yards. And Illinois alum and journey man Brandon Lloyd makes a resurgences leading all Broncos receivers in yards (117). If he's healthy, he's the Denver receiver I want over both Royal and Gaffney.
  
• Knowshon Moreno and a typical Knowshon Moreno day- 15 carries for 60 yards. Makes up for it with a TD. He also got more than half of the carries as Buckhalter (6).
  
• David Garrard had a typical David Garrard day: 16 for 21 with 170 yards and no interceptions. But also had three TDs.
  
• Mike Thomas led all Jaguars in receiving yards (89) and TE Mercedes Lewis has 2 TDs. Mike Sims-Walker had 0 catches.
  
• Both Peyton Hillis and Jerome Harrison each got 9 carries. Harrison's YPC was 5.8 and Hillis' 4.6. But Hillis got the TD.
  
• Jake Delhomme still sucks with his 59.2 passer rating. Joshua Cribbs passer rating was 104.2
  
• Speaking of Cribbs, he ran the ball, passed the ball, caught the ball, and returned the ball. But the only thing he excelled at was punt returns.
  
• Cadallic Williams is running like Geo. 22 carries for only 75 yards.
  
• Trendy sleeper Mike Williams caught a TD pass from Josh Freeman who also put up decent numbers: 88.7 passer rating and 2 TDs to 1 INT.
  
• The Pittsburgh/Atlanta game must have been boring as hell to watch. 18 points scored during regulation, and all of them FG. Illinois alum Rashard Mendenhall won the game in extras with a 50 yard TD run.
  
• Mike Wallace only had two catches, but a 31.0 AVG netting 62 yards. Hines Ward had a great game with 6 receptions for 108 yards.
  
• Northern Illinois alum Michael Turner looked awful with his 2.2 YPC. 19 carries for 42 yards.
  
• Roddy White had TWENTY THREE targets, 13 receptions, for 111 yards.
  
• Matt Ryan still sucks: 67.6 passer rating
  
• Matt Moore does his best Jake Delhomme impression 14 for 33, 182 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
  
• Jonathan Stewart only had 5 carries in the game. Not cool Carolina. Especially considering he's my #1 back in one league.
  
• Eli Manning tried to match Moore with 3 INTs, but also had 3 TDs to go along with it. All to Hakeem Nicks.
  
• If there was ever any doubt, Ahmad Bradhaw is the clear cut starter in New York with 20 carries as opposed to Jacobs's 12.
  
• Justin Bieber, er, Tim Brady's still got it: 25 for 35, 258 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs.
  
• Wes Welker is clearly healthy leading all Pats receiver in targets (11), receptions (8), yards (64), and TDs (2)
  
• Fred Taylor needs to get more carries. 5.1 YPC with 14 carries.
  
• Carson Palmer just dug himself out of his own grave: 34 for 50, 345 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
  
• Ochocinco has one of the best receiving games of the day: 13 targets, 12 catches, 159 yards, and a TD. Batman (T.O.) only had 7 catches for 53 yards. He also had 13 targets though.
  
• In case you haven't been following football for the past 24 months- Chris Johnson is the best running back in the game right now. 27 carries, 142 yards, and 2 TDs
  
• My boy Vince Young has a good game: 13 for 17, 154 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
  
• Don't let Nate Washington lull you into a false sense of security thinking that he's good. Sure, 3 receptions for 88 yards and a TD looks good now. But don't be surprised when he doesn't get a catch in the next two weeks.
  
• Jason Campbell does his best JaMarcus Russell impression: 69.7 passer rating.
  
• Run DMC Darren McFadden finally has a good game in three years: 18 carries for 95 yards along with 6 receptions for 55 yards and a TD. It's tricky to run the ball, to run the ball that's right on time. It's tricky! Tricky (tricky) tricky (tricky). Especially for McFadden.
  
• Michael Bush doesn't play in this game.
  
• Chad Henne and Trent Edwards do their best to out do the other's sheer poorness. Henne: 75.9 passer rating, Edwards: 73.0
  
• While CJ Spiller did lead all Bills RBs in carries- he only got 7. Fred Jackson got 4 and Marshawn Lynch got 3. No one had over 20 rushing yards.
  
• Brandon Marshall got 13 targets. I expect this pace to keep up.
  
• Ronnie Brown (13) had five less carries than Ricky Williams (18) but got 3 more yards and a TD
  
• If Calvin Johnson's TD at the very end of the Bears/Lions game wasn't a TD, then I don't know what is. I don't know which official the Bears had to bribe to get that ruling but please keep it up. I'd love to cheat my way to a 16-0 record.
  
• Jay Cutler looked great (23 for 35, 375 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a 108.3 passer rating) but could not lead the Bears down the field to score to save his life.
  
• Matt Forte had a great receiving game: 7 for 7 for 151 yards and 2 TDs. He also got 17 carries to Chester Taylor's 9.
  
• Cutler seems to love to look for Devin Aromashodu- 10 targets. But only five receptions.
  
• Despite how good the Bears rushing defense looked (Jahvid Best: 14 carries for 20 yards) Best still got 2 rushing TDs
  
• Julius Peppers knocked Matthew Stafford the hell out. Shaun Hill sucks.
  
• Tony Scheffler led all Lions receivers in receptions with 6. Calvin Johnson "officially" got 4.

This Is Too Good To Be True

I'm just going to copy/paste all of Carrie Muskat's post

9/10 Best seller UPDATE

Brewers exec Tyler Barnes said they are trying to determine who left a fake release in the press box about a book allegedly written by Cubs GM Jim Hendry titled "How to Finish Near Last Place with the Highest Payroll in the League." The release was stacked next to the team notes and packets of statistics at Miller Park, saying the book was "certain to be a best seller." Barnes, vice president of communications with the Brewers, called it a "hoax."

"It's an unfortunate incident and lousy attempt at a practical joke," Barnes said.

The release, which is not credited to anyone, stated that you can "read in Hendry's own words" chapters on such topics as:

* Why I signed Milton Bradley
* Why I released Casey McGehee only to see him hit 20 home runs and drive in nearly 100 runs for a division rival.
* Why I signed players to long-term contracts with limited trade options.

The release didn't give a publication date but did encourage readers to reserve a copy now.

"This is a great rivalry between the teams and we have a great respect for each other," Barnes said. "It's a poor attempt at low-level humor."

My Man Love For Anthony Gonzalez

EDITOR'S NOTE: Don't understand some of the advanced stats used in the post like DVOA and DYAR? click here

I admit that what I'm going to say is a BOLD prediction. But hear me out.

Right before all of my fantasy drafts, I was going to write a post entitled "R.I.P. Anthony Gonzalez" about how my one time sleeper was now fantasy dead. But in the middle of writing it, I noticed that Gonzalez was #2 on the Colts wide receiver depth chart behind Reggie Wayne and ahead of media darlings Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. This fact alone made him my number one guy to target in ALL my leagues and my number one fantasy zombie (copyright ESPN Fantasy Focus 2010)

A-Gon has always had talent, was a first round draft pick, and and was drafted by probably the smartest man in football right now- Bill Polian (not only is he responsible for drafting Peyton Manning and engineering this Colts dominance but he's also responsible for the great Bills teams of the early 90's that went to four straight Superbowls). Polian is the #1 guy whom I trust to spot talent when he sees it and to let his talented players play. And I trust, barring another crazy injury, that Anthony Gonzalez will play.

When Gonzalez first got drafted in 2007, all time great and trigger happy Marvin Harrison was on his way out. I'm sure the Colts planned for and what seemed to occur was that Reggie Wayne would take Harrison's place and Gonzalez would take Wayne's. In 2009, the Colts finally got their wish and released Marvin Harrison. 2009 was the year of Anthony Gonzalez!

And then A-Gon goes and gets injured in Week One.

In 2007, Gonzalez's rookie season, he was 1st in the NFL in DVOA (essentially value per play weighted against defense played) and 13th in the league in DYAR (essentially total value weighted against defense played). Considering there are 32 teams, each who start two receivers (and most give a decent amount of looks to it's third), Gonzalez was putting up some pretty impressive numbers- as the teams' #3 wide out. In 2008 Anthony put up similar numbers ranking 3rd in DVOA and 13th in DYAR. A-Gon also had great hands posting no less than a 72% catch rate in his first two seasons. To put that in perspective, out of 89 players with at least 50 targets in 2009, only six wide receivers had a catch rate above 70%- and one of those guys was Wes Welker. In the past three years, neither Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, nor Reggie Wayne has had a catch rate above 69%.

Anthony Gonzalez looked prime to step up and become not only awesome in fantasy, but also for the Colts. Instead, with Harrison out and Gonzalez injured, two nobody's named Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon stepped up and become offensive threats for the Colts.

But now let's take a ride in the DeLorean and see what would have happened if A-Gon had stayed healthy for all 16 games in 2009. Now admittedly, one, this entire premise is pure conjecture. What if Anthony Gonzalez had stayed healthy? What if a meteor came down to Earth and killed Peyton Manning? What if, what if, what if. Second, it's extremely hard to predict things like YPR (yards per reception) year in and year out. I can give you an player's average but what if that player performed worse than average in that individual year? Or better? What if in 2009 A-Gon had an anomaly year that was Troy Tulowitski-esque (maybe Brett Favre-esque would be a better analogy for you football guys that don't follow baseball)? Third, a lot of Gonzalez's value and good numbers came from him playing the slot and playing as a 3rd receiver. Playing on the edges as a legit #2 would decrease his numbers like catch rate, however there's no scientific formula (Yet! Get on it Football Outsiders!) of how a catch rate correlates with playing the slot versus playing the edge.

But that being said, let's try to predict what Gonzalez would have done anyway.

Last year, Peyton Manning threw 571 passes: 149 went to Reggie Wayne, 132 went to Dallas Clark, 91 went to Pierre Garcon, 90 went to Austin Collie, 63 went to Joseph Addai, and 46 went to other receivers. Last year, about 31.7% of Manning's passes went to Collie and Garcon. But how Peyton Manning distributed the ball last year has been atpyical of how he has done it the previous years because during Gonzalez's tenure, Manning has had a clear cut #1, #2, and #3 receiver (something he didn't seem to have in 2009). In 2008 (when Harrison played in 15 games), Wayne (#1) received 23.6%, Harrison (#2) received 19.3% and Gonzalez (#3) received 14.2% of Manning's attempts. While the breakdown between 2008 and 2009 is obviously not identical, and here's where I have to do some educated guessing, how many targets Gonzalez probably would have received should be analogous to what Harrison saw the year before.

Manning attempted 16 more passes in '09 than he did in '08 and Reggie Wayne saw 18 more attempts last year than he did the year before. Based upon how Manning threw when he had a clear cut #2 and #3 receiver in 2008 and the statistical difference in how Manning threw to Reggie Wayne in 2009, I will say that Gonzalez would have gotten 111 attempts leaving about 70 if either Collie or Garcon had stepped up as the clear cut #3 (as opposed to essentially the 50/50 split that occurred between Collie and Garcon).

Next, to see how many catches A-Gon would have had, we have to take his targets and multiply it by his catch rate (considering no receiver catches 100 percent of the balls thrown his way with 50+ attempts). As I mentioned earlier, Gonzalez has never had a catch rate below 72%. But Gonzalez rarely started/played on the edge which is where he would have lined up had he replaced Harrison. This means an expected decrease in his catch rate (I'm not going to get into why, but think about why Randy Moss's CR, never been above 61% in the past three years, and Wes Welker's CR, never been below 75% in the past three years, is so different and you'll understand why moving from the slot to the edge decreases your catch rate).

Last year, the elite wide outs had a catch rate between about 63 and 68%. Again, I'll use my best judgment but we'll say Gonzalez had a 65% CR (I'm being very conservative and 'realistic'). So catching 65% of 111 balls thrown his way is good for: 72 catches.

In 2007 Gonzalez had a 15.6 YPR. In 2008 he had a 11.6 YPR. If you can tell me with a straight face and claim you weren't lying and tell me what Gonzalez's YPR would be in 2009, then I'd slap you in the face (OK, I'm not THAT mean so I won't, but don't get me angry. You're not going to like me when I'm angry). But if we were to use logic and rationality we could make an educated guess. During Gonzalez's rookie season, Marvin Harrison only played in 5 games. In 2008 he (unsuccessfully) played in 15 games. So if we had to guess what number Gonzalez's YPR would be, I would say it's closer to his 2007 campaign than his 2008. Plus, guys like Marques Colston, Roddy White, Miles Austin, Vincent Jackson, Roy E. Williams, and T.O. all had YPR of 15.0+ in 2009 so to give Gonzalez a 15.0 YPR seems reasonable (Again, I'm trying to be very conservative).

An average of 15.0 YPC with 72 catches equals 1080 yards.

Lastly, we have TDs. In 2007 and 2008, Gonzalez had 8 receiving TDs in 11 games started. That extrapolated over a full 16 season equals about 11 TDs. Last year Collie and Garcon combined for 11 TDs so maybe Gonzalez would have had 8-9. But TDs vary every year and are extremely random (Hell, Greg Jennings only had four in 2009 when Aaron Rodgers had the best season of his career, was the best QB in the league last year, and virtually every one of Jennings other numbers looked identical). I can make reasonable inferences about a players YPR and targets based upon history and statistical data, but no amount of evidence can be gathered (short of grabbing that sports almanac that's the basis of Back To The Future II) to predict TDs.

Before I get into what I think Gonzalez would have done in 2009, I want to talk a bit more about what I think he'll do in 2010 (this will make sense in a moment your honor, I promise).

I think Gonzalez is going to do something very similar this year as he would had he been healthy in 2009. If I had to predict Gonzalez's 2010 numbers, I would still use the same catch rate and YPR, but recently, AOL Fanhouse created a projection list of how many targets each receiver on each team will get. Like everybody else, they predict Wayne and Dallas Clark will get the most (130) and Pierre Garcon will get the third most (110). But I truly believe that Gonzalez will get those 'Garcon' targets and be the second best wide receiver on the Colts. (Likewise, with this rationale, I am VERY down on Pierre Garcon. You can get him in free agency or as a late pick or for a dollar, then I like his value. But short of that, I do not recommend drafting Pierre Garcon just because of his decreased targets). Considering the only difference between Gonzalez' 2009 predictions and in his 2010 projection is the one less target in 2010....

So without further ado, here is what I project for Anthony Gonzalez to do in 2010 as well as what I thought he would have done (essentially) last year had he played all 16 games (conservatively):
110 targets/ 72 receptions/ 1080 yards/ 8 TD/ 1 fmbl

From a fantasy perspective, that would have been good for 154 points- good for the 13th best wide out right behind Wes Welker and right ahead of Marques Colston.

Listen, if I'm wrong, then what did you really lose? A dollar flyer in your auction draft. A free agency pick up. Your very last pick in your snake draft. However, I truly believe in Gonzalez and drafted him in my 10 team and 14 team leagues and will draft him in my 12 team league tonight and I hope I've convinced you to take a flyer on him as well.

The Prettiest Hit Tracker Ever

Cubsfan4evr Fantasy Football Advice: Wide Receivers

Now with the Game Of Inches fantasy draft done I can follow in the footsteps of "Sexy Rexy" and post my football advice which I am following in my drafts. I have worked hard to come up with my strategies and list of players to target that I think will have good seasons better than where they’re going, and of course a list of "value picks" for deeper leagues. I say "value picks" because what is a sleeper anymore. Any good fantasy football player has the same sleepers if they do their homework. That is why I came out with my strategy of targeting specific players that I think are good value where they are going in the draft. I have already given my fantasy football advice on running backs a few days ago and then did another article on runningbacks to target that will get the ball so now on to my receivers to target and my "value picks" at receiver.

I typically like to target receivers early in a draft. If I get a top 5 pick then you have to take a running back. If your first round pick is after the 6th pick then I would consider taking a receiver in the first round in Andre Johnson. He is a stud and the best receiver by a wide margin.

The two things I initially think about when evaluating a wide receiver are the talent of the receiver and the quarterback of his respected team with the offense. Let’s take a look at some of the top receivers projected this season: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Miles Austin. All of them have a top QB which makes them in a position to succeed. Ranked 4 to 6 are: Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Roddy White respectively. All three of these guys are very good, but has unknowns throwing them the ball. Calvin Johnson has a 2nd year QB in Matthew Stafford who still has a lot to prove and the same goes for Chad Henne to Brandon Marshall. Roddy White has Matt Ryan and it looks like his rookie season (Ryan's) was a fluke. With that said all three are still good, but limited to a degree by their QB. Because of the unproveness of their QB I am personally going to stay away from Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson. Both are going to have very good seasons, but there are better safer early picks where you should get more value for your return.

Here is a list of the top 15 WR according to Yahoo standard scoring and my take on them:

1. Andre Johnson-A great talent with a great QB as long as Matt Schaub stays healthy.

2. Randy Moss-Some issues at the end of last year but will be fine and repeat last year's numbers.

3. Reggie Wayne-A stud receiver on a great offense. Safest pick besides for Andre Johnson.

4. Calvin Johnson-Why gamble if he will stay healthy and if his QB will develop?

5. Brandon Marshall-New team that hasn't thrown the ball much in recent years. Chad Henne is an unproven so why risk it.

6. Roddy White-A beast who could easily be a top 3 receiver, even with Matt Ryan. Big fan of White who is the real deal.

7. Miles Austin- He has a good QB, and the best option on that team.

8. Larry Fitzgerald-With Kurt Warner spending his retirement on "Dancing with the Stars" Larry's stock drops a lot with Derek Anderson trying to get him the ball. Anderson likes throwing deep so better him at the helm over Leinart, but a big loss because of Anderson's lack of accuracy. He should still get 1.000 yards and some TD from the deep ball.

9. DeSean Jackson- I think his health could be a big concern, but when healthy a stud.

10. Greg Jennings- My favorite receiver this year after Johnson, Moss, and Wayne. He has dropped to 9 after last year's disappointing season, but he is a young dynamic receiver (and only one) in a pass happy offense with my favorite QB. His yards were pretty good last year and that should go up with his TD which you can't predict.

11. Steve Smith (Caronlina)- Could be underrated because of run happy offense, inexperienced QB, and healthy issues he is recovering from.

12. Marques Colston- Would be higher if they didn't pass the ball around so much.

13. Anquan Boldin- Health concern so I would avoid. High risk, high rewards.

14. Steve Smith (Giants)- A safe pick if you missed out on guys I like going before him.

15. Chad Ochocinco- His best days are way beyond him. Better younger options going much later.

Here are the receivers I am targeting early on from the above group:

1. Andre Johnson
   
2. Randy Moss
   
3. Reggie Wayne
   
4. Roddy White
   
5. Miles Austin
   
6. Greg Jennings
   
7. Marques Colston
   
8. Steve Smith (Giants)

These are the safest Wide Receivers to anchor your team with in my opnion. Greg Jennings going 9th among receivers is my boy who I think will have a monster year and love his value for where he is going. If you miss out on a top 6 RB go WR and get 2 from the above list with Jennings completing one of: Johnson, Moss, Wayne, White, or Austin. If you got a RB with your first pick or two then get Jennings with some receivers going much later. After the above eight WR are off the board here are my favorite WR going later.

Here are some Wide receivers I like a lot going later:

1. Michael Crabtree-Shaky QB, but great upside for how late he is going.
   
2. Jeremy Maclin-Best value WR. He is going to be a high level number two option in my opnion.
   
3. Mike Wallace
   
4. Devin Aromashodu
   
5. Jacoby Jones
   
6. Kenny Britt
   
7. Mohamed Massaquoi
   
8. Bernard Berrian

These are my value Wide Receivers of great value for where there going. Jeremy Maclin is going to be a stud and a steal for where he is going in the draft. Mike Wallace is another late flyer who is the number two guy now in Pitt and will be even better in a few weeks when Big Ben comes back. He would be a great backup receiver. Mohamed Massaquoi is another late flyer to take one of your last picks with. He should emerge as the number one option there and be a decent bye week plug in with more upside. Try to snag as many of these guys as possible.
That is my take on Fantasy wide Receivers this season.

New Podcasts Up with FFSpin

Sexy Rexy and Scott Pashley from FFSpin.com discuss all things fantasy football related like the Arizona QB and WR situation, the Denver WR situation, Pierre Thomas, the Philadelphia Eagles and much much more in this two part podcast.

You can listen to Part One here
You can listen to Part Two here

Forbes NFL's Top Five Management Teams

Forbes has ranked the NFL's Top Five Management Teams including the general manager and head coach based on the last two seasons performance and payroll. Their formula is:

"The grading system is based on the number of wins per player payroll (including
salaries, bonuses and benefits) relative to the rest of the NFL, averaged
over the 2007 and 2008 season. Postseason wins count twice as much as regular
season wins. A score of 120 means that the team achieved 20% more victories per
dollar of payroll compared with the league average."

The top five teams according to Forbes are:

1. New York Giants
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Philadelphia Eagles

These are the teams that are getting the most wins for their buck!

TBO vs Sexy Rexy vs *Cubsfan* QB Ranking

Only difference is my ranking includes Matt Leinart and Sexy Rexy's does not, oh and the fact that SR's is completely wrong.

Carlos Zambrano Soccer bobblehead

On Friday Septmeber 3rd, 2010 the Chicago Cubs had Carlos Zambrano bobblehead day. The bobblehead was of Zambrano playing soccer. One thing that stood out to me as soon as I saw the Carlos Zambrano bobblehead was it didn't look like Zambrano!

Does this look like Zambrano to you?

Instead this Zambrano bobblehead looks a lot like Derek Lee to me.

Forbes NFL Team Valuations

Last week Forbes evaluated the value of each NFL franchise heading into the 2010-2011 season and showed the public how much each team is worth. I could break down each team and provide in depth analysis, but who would be kidding with me breaking down the economics of football. I just thought it was interesting to see where each NFL team was ranked and wanted to share it with you if you haven't see this story yet.

Here are the rankings according to the article by Forbes:
1 Dallas Cowboys
2 Washington Redskins
3 New England Patriots
4 New York Giants
5 Houston Texans
6 New York Jets
7 Philadelphia Eagles
8 Baltimore Ravens
9 Chicago Bears
10 Denver Broncos
11 Indianapolis Colts
12 Carolina Panthers
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14 Green Bay Packers
15 Cleveland Browns
16 Miami Dolphins
17 Pittsburgh Steelers
18 Tennessee Titans
19 Seattle Seahawks
20 Kansas City Chiefs
21 New Orleans Saints
22 San Francisco 49ers
23 Arizona Cardinals
24 San Diego Chargers
25 Cincinnati Bengals
26 Atlanta Falcons
27 Detroit Lions
28 Buffalo Bills
29 St Louis Rams
30 Minnesota Vikings
31 Oakland Raiders
32 Jacksonville Jaguars

A few of the teams that stood out to me as being surprisingly high were: Washington Redskins at number 2, Houston Texans at 5, Baltimore Ravens at 8, Carolina Panthers at 12, and Cleveland Browns at 15. It was good to see these franchises so high.

Some of the teams I was surprised to be so low for the market or success of the team was Chicago Bears at 9, Green Bay Packers at 14, Pittsburgh Steelers at 17, Tennessee Titans at 18, Arizona Cardinals at 23, San Diego Chargers at 24, and the most shocking was the Minnesota Vikings at number 30! These teams I would have expected to be higher.

The Chicago Bears at number 9 had to be the most disappointing and I am not saying that as a Bears fan. Chicago is one of the biggest markets and it doesn't have two teams like New York. For these two reasons it should be higher. Thus, it should be in the top 3, or the top 5 to say the least.

Other great teams and storied franchises like the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, and Minnesota Vikings I would have thought to be much higher.

If you go to the article you can click on a team and read more about the appraisal for the team.

Could Matt Leinart Be The Next Aaron Rodgers?

Let me start off by saying that I DO NOT truly believe that Leinart will be the next Aaron Rodgers. Let me repeat, I am NOT saying Leinart, with 100% certainly, will be the next Aaron Rodgers. But if he did, it would not surprise me.

I was doing research for my QB rankings talent post and I came across this post I wrote in February of oh-ten where I said to not be down on Matt Leinart- at least not yet. I wrote this post before the 2010 pre-season and before the Arizona Cardinals cut Leinart from their team.

But I still think Leinart got an unfair rap.

First, let me discuss why I think Leinart had the potential to be the next Aaron Rodgers. Leinart's career resembled Rodger's a whole lot (before last week). First, Leinart was an elite prospect. Here was a guy, who had he come out the year he was eligible; the same year as Rodgers (and Alex Smith), he would have been the number one overall pick. There was some controversy and some flip-flopping when the 49ers had to choose between Rodgers and Smith. There would have been no doubt though that had Leinart been in that draft, the 49ers would have taken Matt Leinart over Smith. But Leinart chose to be dumb and stay at USC for another year for the sole purpose to take ballroom dancing, knock up his girlfriend, and lose to Vince Young in the Rose Bowl.

The next year, Leinart's 'stock dropped' when he went 10th overall to Arizona while his Rose Bowl counterpart Vince Young got drafted 3rd overall and combine superstar Jay Cutler got drafted 11th overall to Denver. Despite what you may think of Cutler and Young, both men are clear NFL starting quarterbacks who clearly deserve to start.

In Leinart's rookie year, starting 11 games, he sucked. But so does every other quarterback known to man. Now just because Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman sucked their rookie year does NOT suggest nor do I mean it to suggest that Leinart will be as good as these players, but it does mean that just because Leinart was bad in his first 11 games does not necessarily mean he will be bad throughout his entire career.

Like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Leinart held a clipboard for his first few years being on the team and watched a future hall of fame quarterback do awesome things for their team and win many many games as a starter. So when Aaron Rodgers finally got a chance to start, it seemed like he learned a lot from watching his future hall of famer do well and in turn performed well himself. So when Kurt Warner retired, Leinart seemed poised to do the exact same thing.

Secondly, Leinart got a bad rap because Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback. I has the 'privilege' of watching Anderson play when the Browns played the Bears last year. During that game, the announcer said that one of the keys for the Browns to win that game was for Anderson to actually make good throws to his receivers. This seemed like a REALLY dumb thing for a commentator to say (because they key for any QB to do well and thus for any team to do well is for their QB to complete passes to their receivers) but the man was right. I saw SO many wide open receivers (i.e. a wide open Josh Cribbs) not be able to catch passes, even dink and dump passes, because Anderson was just so bad at being a QB.

Think about this, a lot of people are saying Matt Moore is a QB upgrade for the Panthers this year, Jake Delhomme is a QB upgrade for the Browns this year, but Derek Anderson deserves to start and stay on the team over Matt Leinart? Huh?

During this pre-season, everyone is saying Matt Leinart sucked. But from my perspective, it seems like it was just a few guys at ESPN saying so and now the whole world agrees with them because we blindly believe everything SportsCenter tells us.

During this pre-season Leinart had a better passer rating (104.6 to 73.1), completion percentage (78.6% to 58.9%), and average (7.95 to 6.00) to Derek Anderson. Last year, Anderson completed less than 50% of his passes (44.5%), was the 5th worst quarterback according to Football Outsiders and 3rd worst per individual play. Even during his breakout 2007 campaign, he completed less than 57% (56.5%) of his passes. (Having Butterfingers McGee Braylon Edwards didn't help that, but still). Derek Anderson is not a good quarterback.

On the 8.24.10 The B.S. Report with Bill Simmons podcast, Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz said that Matt Leinart is awesome against zone coverage defenses and bad against man to man coverage defenses throughout his career and Anderson being the exact opposite. (That's why Leinart had that amazing game against the mighty Chicago Bears in 2006). Schatz joked that the Cardinals should have a QB by committee and play Leinart and Anderson against defenses to their strengths.

Despite the unfortunate unrealism to Schatz' comments, the Cardinals should not have outright cut Matt Leinart. I truly believe they should have let Leinart start all 16 games and at least give him the opportunity to be worth his first round draft pick. And when Derek Anderson starts to be the worst QB in the league halfway through the season, Cardinal fans will be begging to have Leinart back.

FJM: John Clayton's QB Rankings

Recently, ESPN's John Clayton ranked 33 quarterbacks in terms of talent. This list could not have made me more upset. Like a cliche sports blogger, I have to add my two cents and tell the author why he's a dumb mo fo and should never talk about sports ever again because he's the dumbest man alive. Plus it's a Saturday night so naturally this is the best thing on my list to do.

Here's Clayton's list

THE ELITE
1. Peyton Manning
2. Tom Brady
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Brett Favre
6. Aaron Rodgers
7. Philip Rivers
8. Tony Romo
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Carson Palmer
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco
13. Matt Ryan
14. Matt Schaub

CHAD PENNINGTON DIVISION
15. Jay Cutler
16. Kyle Orton
17. Matt Hasselbeck
18. Vince Young
19. Jason Campbell
20. David Garrard
21. Alex Smith
22. Matt Cassel

HIT-OR-MISS DIVISION
23. Mark Sanchez
24. Kevin Kolb
25. Chad Henne
26. Matthew Stafford
27. Byron Leftwich
28. Matt Leinart/ Derek Anderson
29. Josh Freeman
30. Sam Bradford
31. Trent Edwards
32. Matt Moore
33. Jake Delhomme

SIDENOTE: This list was created before Leftwich got hurt and Leinart got cut

Now with most rankings you're never going to have someone agree with you on 100% of your picks. Everyone is always going to think that Person X should be above Person Y. So when I look at rankings I look at groupings. Sure, maybe I think Person X should be better than Person Y, but both people are top 10 and I think that's right. But even still, John Clayton, what are you thinking!?

- My hatred of Big Ben is well documented. While I hate rapists and liars (especially those that get away with it), I especially don't like Big Ben because he isn't asked to throw a whole lot so a decreased sample size shows up as good statistical numbers. And admittedly Roethlisberger proved me wrong last year by having a lot of attempts, a still good completion percentage all while leading the league in sacks. So he gets a bump up in my book. BUT NUMBER FOUR!? COME ON JC! I thought we were past the fact that Superbowl rings does not equal good quarterback play. Was your colleague Trent Dilfer looking over your shoulder when you wrote this?

- Aaron Rodgers is AT LEAST a top 5 quarterback. Part of what makes the greats put up big numbers is because of their offensive line. You put Joe Montana or Dan Marino in front of the most recent Detroit Lions offensive lines and they put Jay Cutler-esque numbers. But Aaron Rodgers put up Dan Marino-eqsue numbers with an awful O-line last year. (tied for first last year in sacks with 50 and had the third worst passing offensive line last year). In my heart (especially as a Bears fan) I can't put him ahead of Manning, Brady, and Brees, but I think my head and logic says Rodgers needs to be top 3.

-Matt Schaub is only 14! WHAT!? The only flaw throughout Schaub's entire career (besides the fact that I've heard many people call him 'Schwaub') is that he's injury prone. But this list is not about fantasy football (and seeing how McNabb is at #9, this list is clearly about talent) it's about how well does a QB perform on the field. Schaub was an elite prospect/back up in Atlanta and always performed well on the field with a Detroit Lions-esque offensive line. Top 10 talent.

-The absolute worst ranking on this list is Matt Ryan. No amount of capital letters can begin to describe how much Matt Ryan sucks. I know this isn't fantasy but when you're healthy and Carson Palmer and Jason Campbell outscore you- you suck.

-Speaking of Carson Palmer- he's 2009 L.T. done. He's I-just-finished-an-easy-final-and-now-I'm-turning-it-in done. This is a shame because he was so good early in his career and looked like the best quarterback to come out of USC in the past decade (although he's still looking like that with the week Matt Leinart is having). But he's looked really bad since his knee injury in the playoffs a few years back and has done nothing since to deserve the "elite" tag

-I understand the frustration and hatred with Jay Cutler, as a Bears fan I do. But Jesus Christ the hatred has gone way too far. Yes, leading the league in interceptions and having it not be close is a HUGE knock on you. But he still completed 60+ percent of his passes and threw more touchdowns than interceptions. And Cutler's INT% was such a statistical anomaly that I refuse to believe he repeats his 2009 campaign. But you wanna talk about guys with bad numbers, just look at Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan.

-I'm glad Drew Brees is getting love. He's always been good where ever he's gone and he makes no name wide outs and 7th round draft picks stars. Plus, his kid is cute AS HELL.

- I love the talent of Philip Rivers. I heard he's the biggest douchebag and trash talker on the field but I think he's also a top 5 talent.

- Fuck Brett Favre. Oh, and Clayton's ranking of him sucks as well. At this stage in his career, Favre is barely a top 10 QB. But still light years better than Tavaris Jackson.

-As a real life player (because god forbid we talk about a player's real life value as opposed to his fantasy value), I like Vince Young. He loves to cough more than a man with lung cancer and emphysema, but the man just wins games. Normally, I'd say that how many wins a team has when a particular quarterback starts is just pure luck. But not with Vince Young. When his team is down by 5 in the fourth quarter (granted they are probably down because Young had 2 interceptions and a fumble in the game) Young just puts game winning drives together. It's just what he does. Plus, there's no stat for rushing for three yards on 3rd and 2- which is what Vince Young does. During a debate last week with my buddy, if I had to start a team today (real not fantasy) and get a QB for the next three years, which QB would I take: Young or Ryan? I took Young.

-Chad Henne is too low at 25 and Kevin Kolb is WAY too low at 24

-I think McNabb, E. Manning, and Orton are correctly placed/ right in the area they should be

Here's my list:

1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Drew Brees
5. Philip Rivers
6. Matt Schaub
7. Tony Romo
8. Brett Favre
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Donovan McNabb
11. Jay Cutler
12. Eli Manning
13. Joe Flacco
14. Kevin Kolb
15. Vince Young
16. Kyle Orton
17. Jason Campbell
18. Matt Ryan
19. Chad Henne
20. Carson Palmer
21. David Garrard
22. Matt Cassel
23. Alex Smith
24. Sam Bradford
25. Matt Hasselbeck
26. Byron Leftwich
27. Matthew Stafford
28. Mark Sanchez
29. Matt Moore
30. Jake Delhomme
31. Trent Edwards
32. Josh Freeman
33. Derek Anderson

Fantasy Football Advice: Every Down Running Backs?

I was recently asked the question what running backs I think will be “every down backs” for this season? That was a hard question to answer because many teams are going away from “every down backs" and towards a shared backfield as everyone knows. So I tried to come up with a list of possible running backs who may accomplish this.

I am going to define a "every down back" as someone with 250+ carries or more. So some teams that run a lot like the Jets and Carolina may have multiple backs that meet this criteria for fantasy purposes. In 2002 there was 19 RBs that had 250+ carries. Last season there was just 9. Here was my first list of candidates:

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. MJD
4. Frank Gore
5. Michael Turner
6. Steven Jackson
7. Cedric Benson
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Ryan Grant
10. Shonn Green
11. Ryan Matthews

There are not many “every down backs” anymore with so many teams going with two to ease the load and not tax one back too much. For this reason if you don't get a top 5pick, I don’t think you should go after running backs early. Instead, you should concentrate on wide receivers and stock pile running backs later and one of them should be good if not more.

It is very hard to predict who will be every down backs because of injuries and other players who may take away from carries, even receivers, etc.

I am really big on Ryan Grant for where he is going. Again, he isn’t a top tier guy, and I wouldn’t reach for him, but he is every down back so I like him. If you don’t get a top six pick or so then I would go after a guy like Grant. Look at how many carries he has had the past two years
It is for this reason I don’t like Grant for years to come but for the next year or two. Then he will fall apart.

The Jetss like to run like crazy. Last year, as a team, they ran almost 700 times. Thomas Jones had 331 attempts last year and with Shonn green getting those carries he should be golden. Another guy to go after in late 1st round.

Both Carolina backs could get that many because they run so much. Especially DeAngelo Williams, but both should get carries. I don’t like Ryan Matthew for where he is going, but he will get the ball a lot because I think the rest of the team will not be good and be a disappointment.

From my initial list I would be worried about Turner, Benson, and to some degree Jackson staying healthy, but I don’t have that much to prove it on, just sort of a hunch. Jackson is coming off back surgery this offseason and he has had a lot of carries the past few years.

Here are the guys I think will get 250+ this season:
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. MJD
4. Frank Gore
5. DeAngelo Williams
6. Ryan Grant
7. Shonn Green
8. Ryan Matthews

Out of those 8 guys it is hard to say who will really be every down backs. That is something very hard to predict. Personally I would only trust: Chris Johnson, AP, MJD, Gore, Grant, Greene, and Williams. I would be surprised if someone else emerges, but a guy like Mendenhall could, especially with Big Ben being out a few games.

What do you think?

Quick Thoughts On Manny To The White Sox

While I agree with DME that the most cost effective decision for the White Sox was to sign Jim Thome at the beginning of the year. As a Sox fan, I like the White Sox acquiring Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers for just the remainder of Manny's contract. Even though the White Sox are not a big market team like their North Side Chicago counterparts or the Yankees or Red Sox, that hasn't stopped them from spending. And as a fan, I don't care how much the price tag costs for these players. Sure more money for the players could mean a higher ticket price for me, but I only go to 3-4 White Sox games a year and I pay for the cheap-o seats anyways (and those prices don't bother me as much. Maybe it's gone up from the past couple of years, But I don't really care). At the end of the day, all I care about is the product on the field. Case in point- Alex Rios. Would I like a player of his caliber to come cheaper, of course. Do I mind that he's getting paid a crap ton but is also awesome? Not at all. As long as my players perform.

And Manny can perform.

Quietly, Manny has a triple slash line of .312/.407/.508 which is good for a .392 wOBA and a .915 OPS. He's walking at exactly his career average (13.6%) and striking out a tick under his career average (21.9% career, 19.6% in 2010). Sure his home runs are way down this year (he only has 8 on the year) and he has an ISO and SLG below his career marks, his 2010 ISO and SLG are still nothing to sneeze at (.196 and .508 respectively). Plus, Manny's only played in 67 games amassing only 236 plate appearance. You know what's also a way to not get a lot of home runs and classic counting stats, not play a whole lot. PLUS, Manny is going from pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium to homer friendly Comiskey.

And of course, Manny will be infinitely better than Mark Kotsay (.303 wOBA, .696 OPS) and somewhat better than Andruw Jones (.353 wOBA, .803 OPS).

I do think this is too little too late, getting Manny for one month isn't the magic antidote to give the White Sox a playoff birth, and his contract is still vastly expensive.

But with that being said, I do like having Manny on the South Side and I like this move a lot.

Cubsfan4evr Fantasy Football Advice: Running backs

Now with the Game Of Inches fantasy draft done I can follow in the footsteps of "Sexy Rexy" and post my football advice which I am following in my drafts. I have worked hard to come up with my strategies and list of players to target that I think will have good seasons better than where they’re going, and of course a list of "sleepers" for deeper leagues.

In the first round I would only take a running back if you get a top 5 pick. If you have the opportunity to take Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Frank Gore you should take them. If not then I would take a WR instead in the first round. My strategy is to take a top RB if I can, otherwise to take WR and QB early by stockpiling many average RB later.

This are my rankings for the top 30 RB:
1) Chris Johnson
2) Adrian Peterson
3) Ray Rice
4) Frank Gore
5) Maurice Jones-Drew
6) Michael Turner
7) Steven Jackson
8) Ryan Grant
9) DeAngelo Williams
10) Rashard Mendenhall
11) Jerome Harrison
12) Cedric Benson
13) Arian Foster
14) Ryan Matthews
15) Shonn Greene
16) Pierre Thomas
17) Jamaal Charles
18) Justin Forsett
19) Jonathan Stewart
20) Jahvid Best
21) Joseph Addai
22) LeSean McCoy
23) Ahmad Bradshaw
24) Felix Jones
25) Tim Hightower
26) Matt Forte
27) Beanie Wells
28) Michael Bush
29) Ricky Williams
30) Clinton Portis

As I said though I don't like many running backs for where they are being drafted. So here is a list of the actual running backs I would draft based on where they are going.

The list of runningbacks I would actually draft:

• Chris Johnson
• Adrian Peterson
• Ray Rice
• Frank Gore
• Maurice Jones-Drew
• Ryan Grant
• Rashard Mendenhall
• Jerome Harrison
• Arian Foster
• Justin Forsett
• Jahvid Best
• Ahmad Bradshaw
• Tim Hightower

I wouldn't reach for these players more than a round early, if I didn't think they would come back to me. I would draft other positions, especially wide receivers early on and wait for these running backs that I am targeting. The reason is I think these running backs are good value for where there going. The other running backs I excluded from this list from my top 30 backs are still good and may have good seasons, but I think these players are better values for where there going. So if one of those other players fall a round or two then I would draft them if they are healthy.

Running backs I like later that I think could be great value out weight their ranking and be difference makers for a team are: Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best, Arian Foster (big on), and Michael Bush. I think some of these guys could develop into getting the lion share of the playing time. I think Bhest could be an injury risk, on a bad team, but if he does well he will get most of the carries. Forsett could also develop into getting enough carries a game. Arian Foster could easily emerge with the Texans being down on Slaton. Thus, these are guys I would target with later picks. I wouldn’t reach for them, but if they come to you, jump on them.

I am really big on Ryan Grant for where he is going. Again, he isn’t a top tier guy, and I wouldn’t reach for him, but he is every down back so I like him. If you don’t get a top six pick or so then I would go after a guy like Grant. Look at how many carries he has had the past two years:
It is for this reason I don’t like Grant for years to come but for the next year or two. Then he will fall apart. Depending on your league with the number of teams, if you have a flex, and the number of positions he would be a good number one back if you took a stud receiver with your first pick or a great 1-2 punch if he was your second pick. You can't go wrong with grant this year.

Who Is This Sports Insider?

This man is an legend in sports and has resurrected the careers of many athelthes. With that said I don't know if many people know what he looks like. Who is this sports legend?

Hint: He has mostly worked with athletes in football and baseball, but not necessary all of his clients are in those two sports. Some of the more notable people he has worked with are: Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Bo Jackson, Mark Sanchez, Drew Brees, Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, Emmitt Smith. Roger Clemens, John Smoltz, Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, and Jim Thome among many others.

Derrick Rose Following Lamar Odom's Candy Fix

Lamar Odom has made it known that he eats candy before a game to give him a sugar rush which he says helps his game. It makes me skeptical that it really gives an NBA player an edge like Odom claims.


Derrick Rose told reporters at the end of last season that he loves Skittles and can eat them all the time. The Wrigley company heard of this and acted on it.

"A Skittles spokesperson said the company has been sending the candy to
Rose since his sweet tooth was exposed in several articles."

They decided to give Derrick Rose a customized Skittles machine that has:

""D. Rose" on the bottom, right corner, has a motion-activated sensor that plays
a recorded message -- perhaps taped by Rose -- when someone walks past."

He will also get a 3-year supply for the machine. Hopefully it will give him the edge like candy does for Odom. Expect to start seeing these around the Untied Center some timesoon or maybe even closer to home. I thought this machine was really cool and had to share it.

It's Sexy Rexy's Man Crush Tommy Johnagin On Letterman

I'd put up the video of Michelle Beadle on Letterman but she was really really boring

The Race For Last Place Takes Place Here

MLB Trade Rumors has "reverse standings" up on their website which measure draft pick compensation, rather than playoff odds.

According to the numbers, the Cubs are 3.5 losses away from a top 3 draft pick!

New Podcasts Up

Hear Cubsfan and I rant about fantasy RBs and our fantasy team- which I promise you will help your team.

Listen here