Draft Tip #1

With fantasy baseball drafts still 2-3 months away, I am going to start cataloging various essential draft tips and tidbits I uncover while doing baseball research. This is tip #1.

Today's tip relates to poor-control starters and ERA. You like Morrow's upside? Let me warn you of his downside.

In doing some excel charting today, I discovered that the average ERA of a starting pitcher with a BB/9 greater than 4.00 over the past three seasons was a whopping 4.51. The league average ERA for starters was only 4.17 over this period, however.

Those high K, high BB guys like Bud Norris, Justin Masterson and Brandon Morrow seem nice, but you need to stay grounded and be cognizant of the risks inherent in their enticing peripherals. Of the 32 starters with BB/9 greater than 4.0 over the past three years (min. 150 IP), only Edinson Volquez, Rich Harden, Clayton Kershaw, C.J. Wilson*, Carlos Zambrano, and Yovanni Gallardo posted ERAs under 4.00. Don't forget poor control guys also mess with your WHIP.
*C.J. Wilson pitched exclusively in relief in both 2008 and 2009.

You've been warned.

2 comments:

Sexy Rexy said...

Thanks for stealing my thunder after I write like a 3 hour post. Jerk.

David "MVP" Eckstein said...

:)

Admit it, you wanted that advice.