Box Score Tonight: TBO version aka The good version

Sexy Rexy is taking a sabbatical to go backpacking through Europe and transverse the Indian Ocean on a 15 foot sail boat solo. Trip will culminate at the Great Wall of China where SR will spray pain GOI on the wall in 50 foot increments. We expect him back for week 9, 2027

-Bears shock the world and pull off the "upset" against the Packers. The final Drive, a la John Elway, was super sweat after Aaron Rodgers made a WWE World Championship belt motion around his waist after running for the score late in the 4th. Yeah, you look like a big man Aaron Rodgers. Try winning the game or beating Brett Favre once before you anoint yourself the G.O.A.T.
-Devin Aromasshodu and Tommy Harris are both healthy scratches for the game. Apparently DA refuses to play the slot receiver spot and Harris just sucks. D/N matter how many hats you sign at training camp buddy
-The running game was non existent for either team. Rodgers out-passed Cutler by 100 yards, but took 18 more attempts to do so. Jermichael Finley is making a case to be the top TE catching 9 balls on 9 targets.
-Devin Hester is back, kinda sorta, with a 62 yard TD punt return. His 12th career return to the hizzy
-KC slapped around the 0-3 49ers, but once again Jones gets more carries, but Charles gets more yards with a 8.1 YPC. Frank Gore made a plea to be a run first team, so the 49ers ran 15 times all game. Goodbye offensive coordinator
-Brett Favre continued being old with a 68 passer rating, but AD picked up the slack with an 80 yard TD run. Hank Baskett made his triumphant return with a holding penalty and 2 drops. At least he didnt "recover" an onside kick with his face mask this time
-Detroit Lions have one weapon. His name is Calvin Johnson. How has he only touched the ball 14 times in 3 games. Just lob it up to him Shaun Hill
-Patriots defense continues to look shaky as they give up 30 points to the Harvard grad Ryan Fitzpatrick led Bills. He did get 2 scores from CJ Spiller. He went to Clemson (Harvard of the South).
-With Maroney traded to the Broncos, the law firm of Ben Jarvis Green Ellis ran 16 times for 98 yards and a score. Brady and his Beiber haircut dominate as Moss catches 2 balls both for scores
- I told Cubsfan not to be surprised if Garrett Hartley doesn't last the season with the Saints before the season. After missing a chip shot to win the game in OT, Saints sign 46 year old John Carney as "insurance" and my prediction is that much closer to reality.
-Tony G grabs 100 yards and a score while Lance "dont call me bass" Moore caught 150 and 2 TDs on the day. Pierre Thomas sucks again. Sexy Rexy put away the Aloe, wherever you are
-Chris Johnson had a horrible day, yet still ran for 125 and 3 scores on 32 carries.
-Giants are in free fall as a team. Put up a ton of yards as usual but leads to only 10 points
-Steelers continue to dominate without Big Ben. This team will be super scary when they can start a QB besides Charlie Batch's corpse. Mendenhall runs for 150 again, get the KY Jelly SR, and Mike Wallace does his best DeShawn Jackson impersonation with 3 catches for 100 yards and 2 TDs.
-Only positive from Bucks side is 55 yards from Syracuse rookie Mike Williams and 3 catches for Illini rookie Arrelious Benn, who still doesnt have a good QB to get him the damn ball playa
-I liked Jimmy Clausen as a college QB. But I can't see him on the pro level. He responds with a 53 QB rating, which I think will be a common occurrence. Panthers need to run the ball on every down. Not joking
-Carson Palmer had an even worse rating than Clausen. While Ochocinco and TO combine for 8 catches on 21 targets Shipley goes 3-3 and Oklahoma monster TE Jermaine Gresham goes 4-6. Owens was a mistake and I would imagine him getting phased out pretty soon...By another tv show
-Ravens has themselves a great day after an abysmal performance against the Bungels. Flacco throws for 3 TDs all to Anquan Boldin. Boldin also threw 1 pass for -6 yards, yet his QB rating was 30 points higher than Palmer/Clausen
-Browns get 144 yards on the ground from Peyton "not a hick" Hillis. Cribbs remains the top receiving option for former Iowa State QB great Seneca Wallace
-Roy Williams, no not the former safety, not not the head coach of the UNC, the former Longhorn/Lions great finally woke up from his self induced coma to score 2 TDs. A much needed win for the 'Boys but Barber gets 17 carrier to Jones' 7. Wat up wit dat holmes?
-Arian Forster has transformed himself from a heavy, no break away speed back in Houston, to an absolute Lebron James type body athletic freak who runs for 100 yards in his sleep. I lub dub this guy. Though he did have a big fumble so I guess Sexy Rexy will hate him eternally
-I think Dan Snyder made a bet with the Devil and lost big time. No matter how much money he spends on the team, he can not catch a break. Losing to the Rams may be a new low. They respond by cutting Larry "I swear I'm not white" Johnson. That's the ticket! McNabb old, Portis old, Deangelo Hall bad, Shawn Taylor dead, Haynesworth AWOL, Moss short. I do like Landy, Rogers, and Orokpo. At least until the devil comes back for more fun
-Steven Jackson may be out with a minor injury, but Bradford is holding up well for a rookie QB with little talent around him. BTW, Chris Long is one of the biggest busts in NFL history. In 35 games, dude has 59 tackles and 9 sacks. My grandma could do that cracker
-Welcome to the Michael Vick experience. That terrible, horrible, dog killing felon leads the NFL with a 111 QB rating, which doesnt include rushing totals which he can do pretty well. 4 total TDs. Deshawn Jackson has to be the fastest guy in the league with another 150 yard performance.
-David Garrard had a 39 QB rating and that is being generous. 105 yards on 30 attempts? My 9 year old niece could do that while watching Wizards of Waverly Place. Dont pretend like you dont watch it, your not better than me. But really, if there's no one to see the Jaguars play, did it really happen? Why yes, yes it did
-Peyton Manning is good at football. He would def be my first pick for Thankgiving 2 hand touch in the backyard. Austin Collie led the world with 12 catches on 16 targets 171 yards and 2 TD. If only Champ Bailey could cover both sides of the field, if only
-Orton washed the Jack Daniels out of his bum beard and threw for 476 yards in the loss of course. Steve Spurrier protege Gaffney had 140 yards while former Illini great, get ready Sexy Rexy cause this is your lucky night, Brandon Llyod had 169 (haha 69) yards and a 2 point conversion
-Matt Leinart must be laughing somewhere right now as Derek Anderson completes less than 50% of his passes. Again. Although a couple TD catches bail them out. Fitzgerald's 12 catches are jealous of Calvin Johnson's 14.
-Raiders get nice performances from Gradkoswki, Run DMC gets 100 yards for the 3rd straight week, and Florida great Louis Murphy is the top receiver on the team, though Hayward-Bey gets 11 targets. Janikowski missed 3 field goals which is bad when you lose by 1
-The Seahawks are 2-1, Carroll must be paying his players, oh wait thats allowed now. No stars on offense but they forced 3 turnovers which won the game.
-Rivers throws for 455 in the loss. I dont think anyone has ever thrown for 450 yards in a win. Just not a good sign. Maybe they could have gotten 500 with Vincent Jackson who is still at home not getting a paycheck
-It's always sunny in NY if your a Jets fan. Sanchez good, Tomlinson back from the dead, Edwards not in jail scoring touchdowns. Life is good, until Sanchez shows his inner Derek Anderson. Dude is not accurate, but if Eli can win a SB, why cant Sanchez
-Forgetting Brandon Marshall catches 10 for 166 despite everyone in the stadium knowing the ball was going to him. Ronnie in completes one pass and has a QB rating higher than David Garrard

If you got this far, good for you! Here's a trivia question. Which Jet got boooooed the loudest against the Dolphins?

Until next week, we..are..OUT!

America You're Fucking Out, Chicago's Fucking In

TBO's Infamous Hole In The Wall

Cubs lost, threw baseball at the couch, missed couch, destroyed living room wall. Must have happened 10 years ago.

Since then it has been masterfully covered up with a crystal ball

Finally, the legend has visual proof

Keith Law Tweets Chapman Radar Gun Live

Comcast Fail

Game Of Inches Football Results: Week Two

1) Sexy Rexy
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 24-8

2) The 'Bright' One
Last Week: 12-4
Overall: 22-10
Clutch Game: Chicago over Dallas

3) Cubsfan
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 20-10

Game Of Inches Fantasy Football League:
- Sexy Rexy (L) (1-1) 8th overall, 4th in the Michelle Beadle division
- TBO (W) (1-1), 6th overall, 3rd in the Erin Andrews division
- Cubsfan (L), 9th overall, 5th in the Erin Andrews division

Even Texas Hates Tony Romo

Fantasy Football Doctor: Week 3 Pick Ups

1) Jason Snelling | RB | Atlanta | 30% Yahoo! ownership

I'm not 100% convinced Turner won't play in Week Three versus New Orleans, but at a minimum if you own Turner you need to own Snelling (in fact you should have already). Like Brandon Jackson, Snelling has some talent but it's bolstered a damn fine rushing offensive line. Last year, Atlanta has the 10th best rushing O-line and in two games this year has the 4th. Snelling also showed what he can do last week rushing for over 130 yards and three total touchdowns. I don't know that I would drop a whole lot to pick up Snelling, but a definite buy if you have the roster room.

2) DeAngelo Williams | RB | Carolina | 99% Yahoo! ownership

Obviously if you're in a league bigger and tougher than the ones the guys play in in The League, then DeAngelo Williams is already owned and you can't pick him up. But I do think he's a great buy low candidate (his teammate Jonathan Stewart also qualifies). Last year, when Cubsfan thought Williams 2008 MVP season was a fluke, after about four bad games, he sold DeAngelo Williams- for Willis McGahee no less. And soon after the trade, Cubsfan regretted every moment of it. I think you can find a panicky Williams owner this year as well.

In 2008, DeAngelo Williams had 198 rushing yards on 54 carries (good for a meager 3.67 YPC) and no touchdowns. He ended the years as the best fantasy RB and had 18 TDs in 12 games. In 2009, DeAngelo Williams had 220 yards on 59 carries (good for a 3.73 YPC) although he did have 2 TDs. He ended the year (in only 14 games) with a 5.2 YPC. In two games in 2010, he has a 3.5 YPC and no rushing TDs.

To me, Williams is the C.C. Sabathia of fantasy football- a notoriously slow starter that finishes very strong at the end. I still think he ends the year as a top 10 fantasy RB and if you can get him for cheap now or within the next few weeks, do it.

3) Kevin Walter | WR | Houston | 30% Yahoo! ownership

Jacoby Jones was probably the biggest wide receiver sleeper since Devin Aromashodu. Everybody in the pre-season seemed to love this guy. Except for me. I hope I wrote this down somewhere or said it publicly, but I truly believe the Houston receiver you want to own not named Andre Johnson is Kevin Walter.

If you look at Walter's numbers before last year, they looked pretty good. Not clear cut #1 numbers, but a number three wide out in a 12 team, 3 WR league good. In 2008, Walter was the 19th best fantasy wide out and he already has as many TDs (2) and he did all of last year. Yes, as a Walter owner in 2009 he wasn't good, but I like a bounce back year from him and to perform better than Jacoby Jones.

4) Mark Clayton | WR | St. Louis | 53% Yahoo! ownership

Just because I like to pat myself on the back. Last week I recommended Clayton (admittedly not wholeheartedly) and he comes back in Week Two with a 2 TD game. Sure he only got 24 receiving yards but I think he has the ability and can get at least 7-9 fantasy points every week- which is great for a guy you picked off the waiver wire.

5) Marshawn Lynch | RB | Buffalo | 20% Yahoo! ownership

In an unforeseeable turn of events, Lynch led all Bills backs in both yards and carries in Week Two's loss against the Packers. I think if he ends the year in Buffalo, he's their number three fantasy producing back behind Jackson and Spiller, respectively. But I'm also not convinced Lynch ends the year in Buffalo.

I am an avid listener of the Fantasy Focus Football podcast and I'm starting to buy in that 1) Lynch gets traded to another team (and let's be honest, the Bills don't need him. At all.) and 2) the reason Lynch got so many carries and looked "so good" was because the Bills are trying to shop Lynch to the team they were facing- the Packers- who just lost their starting RB for the year.

6) Tony Moeaki | TE | Kansas City | 3% Yahoo! ownership

Last week he got 10 targets and led all KC receivers in yards. In Week One has actually managed to pad Matt Cassel's stats by getting a TD reception. He was a high draft pick and has looked good in two straight weeks. A great high upside back up TE.

If you can afford the roster room and want to take on the risk, Lynch is a good add for you.

Guys I'm not yet sold on:

1) Aaron Hernandez | TE | New England | 9% Yahoo! ownership

He led all Pats receivers in Week Two with 146 receiving yards, he was Nate Ravitz' bold prediction (on the Pats) to do well this year and he has Tom Brady throwing to him. My concern is 1) Randy Moss 2) Wes Welker 3) Rob Gronkowski. Only so much love to go around.

2) Greg Olson | TE | Chicago | 60% Yahoo! ownership

He had a TD (that WAS all him) but otherwise didn't have a reception in Week Two. All I have seen out of him is drop passes, fumble the ball, have a mismatch on defenders and not do anything with it, and not be the Adrian Peterson equivalent of tight ends. My only hope for Olson is looking how well Vernon Davis is doing right now.

3) Joshua Cribbs | WR/ Wildcat QB | Cleveland | 28% Yahoo! ownership

In Week One Mohamed Massaquoi was on my "not to trust week". The next week the Cleveland receiver that has the best day and a good fantasy day is Cribbs. I don't trust ANYONE, in Cleveland right now to start on my fantasy team(s).

4) Run DMC Darren McFadden | RB | Oakland | 84% Yahoo! ownership

I really hated Run DMC coming into the year. But so far he's done nothing but prove me wrong. After a really good game in Week One versus a good Tennessee defense he comes back in Week Two against St. Louis with a 145 yard game. He was the first back taken in one of the best RB draft classes in recent memory but in two years in the NFL hasn't done crap.

I'm still not completely sold on his talent/ health, he has competition with Michael Bush coming back, and one of the two games he's played so far was St. Louis. I'm convinced EVEN I could get 100 rushing yards on 30 carries against St. Louis.

Box Score Tonight: Football/ MNF Edition

I may get to the late games, but since I actually have other responsibilities besides blogging (A shocker, right?), my chances of getting to it are very slim. Plus my internet not working in my apartment does help anything either. Anyways, onto the Saints/ 49ers game

- Illinois jerk off alert: Pierre Thomas has an awful game. he's getting the touches he deserves (18 carries and 8 catches on just as many targets). On the ground he only averaged 2.6 YPC but he makes it up (sort of) with his 57 receiving yards
- I was a big believer in the Madden Curse and made sure to stay away from Brew Drees. So far my confirmation bias has come true and Brees has been the 12th best QB this year. Now there's PLENTY of time for me to be proven wrong, but I will continue to be down on him until otherwise shown. He still ended up the day with a 108.9 passer rating, 2 TDs with no interceptions, and a 73.7% completion percentage, but I'm not convinced he's the same Drew Bress from the past couple of years.
- Reggie Bush gets injured in this game. In other news: I like football. I like the man's talent (duh!) and he showed me last year he cans core TDs on offense, but he's only averaging 12 games per season from '07-'09.
- Marques Colston (tied with Thomas) led all Saints receivers in targets (8) and yards (67). He's clearly the Saints number one guy and will be better for fantasy purposes.
- I don't know if we'll know who the Saints' #2 receiver will be until probably Week Eight. Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush get 5 targets (and were 3rd and 4th respectively in yards among NO receivers), Devery Henderson is 5th in yards, and Robert Meachum gets only one target for zero yards.
- Just like everyone at ESPN has said: I give Alex Smith mad props for his late inning TD drive. He put up similar numbers to Brees from a yards and completion percentage stand point, but he got picked off twice with only one TD.
- Frank Gore is just a monster. Like Scully or the Boogieman. He got 112 yards on 20 carries (just like an elite back should) and 56 receiving yards on 7 receptions (9 targets). He also had a receiving and rushing TD. He also fumbled (just like another elite RB *cough* AD *cough*).
- Back up RB Anthony Dixon got a rushing TD as well, but from the highlights it looks like it was a fluke (esque) because Gore had just rattled off a long run short of a TD and needed a break. 99 times out of 100 Gore gets the goal line TD carry.
- Vernon Davis leads all 49er receivers in yards (78) for the second week in a row. take lessons Greg Olson!
- Michael Crabtree doesn't do a whole lot for a second week in a row: 3 targets, 1 catch, 32 yards.
- And we... are... OUT! I wonder how many people will really get this reference.

No Win Fail

I Stabbed A Man In The Heart



And so did Wellington Castillo apparently. I guess that's one way to guarantee a spot on the roster. First Colvin, now Soto is having season ending shoulder surgery, jezz this guy wont stop. But seriously, a very scary situation in yesterday's 13-3 Cubs win over the Fish as Castillo's bat shattered on a double down the line, hurling the fat part of the bat like a giant dart. Of course the pointed end of the dart hits the board, and so did the pointed end of the broken bat into a unsuspecting Colvin standing at 3rd. 2 inches away from his heart the bat actually pierced his thoracic cavity. Little blood came out, as most of the vasculature transverses the neck, but he did rip a hole in his pleural space creating a pneumothorax. The pleural space has negative pressure relative to the atmosphere such that it allows the lungs to inflate like a balloon. Allowing atmospheric air into the space equilibrates the pressures making breathing kinda impossible on that side of the lung. He was taken to the Miami hospital and stabilized overnight. Colvin is apparently recovering nicely, though his baseball season is certainly over.

This marks the first time I have seen a player hit with the pointed edge of the bat. Bats shatter multiple times a game, and often go flying into the stands where people are either drunk or not playing attention. It's really scary to think what would have happened if the bat flew a couple inches higher. The neck has no ribs to protect it, such that the vascular and neurological damage it would have caused makes me nauseous at the thought alone


It reminds of me another freakish injury. Yes, the injury is epic, but not as epic as the analysis

Box Score Tonight: Week Two/ Early Games Edition

  • Bears upset the Cowboys in Big D 27-20
  • At this point in the year I'm not sure if I'm going to start any RB against the Bears defense. Felix Jones looked awful and got 7 carries for 7 yards. Marion Barber looked a bit better and got 11 carries for 31 yards. I think the carries disparity was just because Jones looked so bad early that it just seemed more beneficial to play Barber but I think on every given week it will be a 50/50 split.
  • On one of the very first plays of the game, Tony Romo hit an open Miles Austin. As Austin was coming down with the ball, Peanut Tillman stripped the ball out of Autin's hands and into the hands of CB D.J. Moore (which we will come back to in a bit). Yet this was ruled an interception on Romo and not a fumble by Austin. The NFL needs to change the rules on calling INT on QB's which the reason for the turnover is overwhelming the wide out's fault.
  • Romo pulls his best Jay Cutler (Week One) impression and gets a crap ton of stats but can't lead the 'Boys on any type of scoring drive. His final numbers: 34 for 51 for 375 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT. Should really only be one INT.
  • Miles Austin continues to just be amazing. 10 receptions on 15 targets for 142 yards.
  • Roy Williams gets 5 more targets (7) than Dez Bryant (2) but only ends up with one more receiving yard (53 to 52). Romo looked to Williams in some clutch situations but Bryant was hurt for a handful of this game and ran back a punt for a TD.
  • Just for note: Jason Witten: 8 targets, 5 catches, 51 yards and a concussion
  • Jay Cutler had a fantastic game: 21 for 27 with 277 yards, 3 TDs to 0 INT, and a 136.7 passer rating. He looked great.
  • The Bears finally made some adjustments. After their first drive or so, Jay Cutler has less pockets than a pair of girls' skinny jeans and DeMarcus Ware got more pressure on Cutler than a deep sea expedition. But soon after, due to many extremely quick passes for big gains, Dallas was forced to drop guys into coverage instead of bringing pressure to Cutler- which caused Cutler to look great.
  • Devin Aromashodu did not play in this game. I have no idea why considering ESPN listed him as active before the start of the game. Benching Seattle's Mike Williams for Randy Moss might work out but benching Moss for D.A. will blow up in my face
  • Devin Hester has a great game: 6 targets, 4 catches, 77 yards, and an amazing TD grab
  • The vast majority of Johnny Knox's work came on a 59 yard pass. But welcome to the play of a deep guy and Johnny Knox. He led all Bears receivers in yards (86).
  • I still don't know what to think of Greg Olson. He made a great play early in the game (a 39 yard TD grab- and those yards were all Olson) but didn't get a target since.
  • Matt Forte got another receiving TD (he now has 3 on the year) to seal the game up late and led all Bears receivers with 5 catches.. But only 10 carries for 2.9 yards. An awful YPC. But he's so damn good in the air.
  • Defensive back D.J. Moore gets credited for both of Romo's 2 INT and involved in Roy Williams fumble.
  • The Dirty Birds of Atlanta blow out Arizona 41- 7
  • I started Arizona's D in the 14 team GOI league. They got me negative one point.
  • Matt Ryan pulls a Michael Vick in the sense that he proved his critics wrong for at least one game. His stats: 21/32, 225, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 117.3 passer rating
  • Michael Turner gets hurt but had a good game: 9 carries for 75 yards, good for a 8.3 YPC. His replacement Jason Snelling gets 24 carries for 129 yards and 2 rushing TDs. He also gets 5 targets (catches all of them) for 57 yards and a TD
  • Roddy White continues to be amazing. Even though he didn't get nearly half as many targets as he did last week, he gets 12 targets, catches 7 of them, for 78 yards and a TD
  • Just because I feel I need to mention him: Tony Gonzalez: two catches, two targets, 19 yards, 0 TDs
  • Derek Anderson watch: 54.8 completion percentage, 0 TDs, 2 INT, and a 42.5 passer rating. These are Rex Grossman numbers folks. I find it hard to believe that Matt Leinart was worse than this.
  • Larry Fitzgerald has a "better" day than his 3 catches on 15 targets from Week One. He has 12 targets, 7 catches, and leads all Cardinals with 86 yards.
  • The body-of-glass often injured Beanie Wells sits out again. His replacement Tim Hightower has a fine game: 11 carries, 115 yards, and one TD.
  • Another "upset" Cincinnati defeats Baltimore 15-10. Boy I am already having an awful day in the Pick 'Em Game.
  • After a huge fantasy day in Week One and junk time, Carson Palmer goes back to being new Carson Palmer: 60.1 passer rating.
  • As per expected Cedric Benson gets 23 carries and only 78 yards. Not a good rushing day for him with his 3.4 YPC
  • Today Batman (T.O.) gets more targets (11) and yards (57) than Robin (Ochocinco) (9 and 44 respectively). But T.O. only has 3 catches and Ochocinco gets 4. I can not wait for these two to implode the team. Seriously, it'll be awesome.
  • Texas alum Jordan Shipley gets a decent amount of looks and work: 5 catches on 6 targets for 42 yards. When T.O./Ochocinco gets suspended/"injured"/goes off to film another reality show, pick up Shipley.
  • All of the Bungles 15 points come off of field goals.
  • A decent guy for IDP leagues: Leon Hall. He was really good in coverage and gets an INT today.
  • Joe Flacco does his best Derek Anderson/ Jake Delhomme/ Rex Grossman/ 2009 Week One Jay Cutler impression throwing 4 picks and only 1 TD.
  • My boy Ray Rice has a fine game on both the ground and air. He gets 17 carries for 87 yards (5.4 YPC) and 30 receiving yards on 4 catches and 6 receptions.
  • Both Anquan Boldin and Todd Heap Mason get 35 yards. Boldin (8) gets two more targets than Heap (6) and (5) one more catch than Heap (4). Derrick Mason has one catch but makes it worth his while: a 31 yard TD.
  • Kansas City defeats Cleveland. In other news: the world is not flat.
  • Seneca Wallace starts instead of the "injured" Jake Delhomme. Probably for the better. His line: 16 for 31 with 229 yards a TD and an INT.
  • Jerome Harrison (16) gets double the carries of Peyton Hillis (8). But Hillis gets (35) gets two more yards than Harrison (33) and the TD.
  • Joshua Cribbs finally has a nice day. He led all Browns receivers in yards (74) and got a TD.
  • Mohamed Massaquoi essentially does nothing: 1 catch for 9 yards.
  • Why would Josh McDaniels think that Matt Cassel is better than Jay Cutler? Cassel has another awful game (16 for 28 with 176 yards, no TDs, and 2 INT) and is racing Derek Anderson to see who can lose their job first.
  • In another dumb KC move, Thomas Jones (22) gets double the carries of Jamaal Charles (11) and gets 83 yards to Charles' 49. However J.C. (4.5) has the last laugh by having a better yards per carry than T.J. (3.8).
  • The Chiefs rookie TE Tony Moeaki has another nice game. He led all KC receivers in yards (58), targets (10), and receptions (5).
  • If it weren't for a pick 6 by CB and Killers lead singer Brandon Flowers, KC would have lost to Cleveland.
  • Philadelphia unnecessarily lets Detroit score 32 points on them, but still comes out victorious by scoring 35
  • Michael Vick has a pretty good game: 21 for 34, 284 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT and 37 rushing yards on 7 carries. He also lost two fumbles.
  • LeSeaon McCoy goes off (like any RB facing a Detriot Lions defense). He gets 120 yards on 16 carries and 3 TDs
  • DeSean Jackson gets 135 yards on 4 receptions (7 targets) and a TD
  • Jeremy Maclin gets Vick other TD but Jason Avant and Brent Celek get more yards than him. All had 3 receptions.
  • Shaun Hill isn't completely terrible, but that only means he's a stop above Derek Anderson and Jake Delhomme. He gets 335 yards and 2 TDs. He also throws two picks.
  • Jahvid Best has a MONSTER day. Rushing: 7 carried for 78 yards and 2 TDs. Receiving: 154 yards on 9 receptions (14 targets) and a TD.
  • Brandon Pettigrew finally lives up to his first round draft status. He gets 7 catches on 8 targets and 108 yards.
  • Calvin Johnson finally catches a TD pass but he pulls his best Larry Fitzgerald impression and gets 4 catches on 11 targets with 50 yards.
  • Donkey Kong (Ndomukong) Suh gets 1 sack and Kyle Van Den Bosch gets 1.5 sacks. This Lions D-line is pretty good.
  • For some reason Vegas didn't give Green Bay a 20 point advantage over Buffalo. The Packers handily defeat the Bills 34-7.
  • Breaking news: Aaron Rodgers is really good at football. 19 for 29 with 255 yards 2 TDs to no picks. He also gets 20 rushing yards and a rushing TD.
  • FB John Kuhn (36) gets more yards than starting RB Brandon Jackson (29) on two less carries. But Jackson gets the rushing TD.
  • Trendy sleeper Jermichael Finley lives up to the hype. He led all GB receivers in yards (116). However, it's James Jones (7) that led all Packers in targets (7) and got a TD.
  • Donald Driver (4 for 38) has similar numbers to Greg Jennings (3 for 36) but gets the TD over Jennings.
  • Aaron Rodgers' doppelganger Trent Edward but up (essentially) the exact opposite numbers as Rodgers: 11 for 18 with 102 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs
  • For some reason Marshawn Lynch not only gets significant amount of time in this game, but he led all Buffalo RBs in yards (64) and carries (17). Fred Jackson gets 39 yards on 9 carries and a TD. C.J. Spiller sits on his butt and does nothing (1 carry for 3 yards).
  • Because Trent Edwards is so bad, I'm not going to even bother talking about the Bills receiving game.
  • Pittsburgh defeats Tennessee away 19-11.
  • Four quarterbacks (2 on each side) play in this game. For the Steelers: Dennis Dixon gets injured so Charlie Batch finished the game. Only 17 attempts between the two.
  • Illinois alum Rashard Mendenhall has a pretty bad game with his 3.0 YPC. He gets 69 yards on 23 carries.
  • A really bad day for Steelers receivers- which was to be expected. Mike Wallace, Hines Ward, and Heath Miller all get 4 targets. Wallace and Miller get 2 receptions while Ward gets 1. Wallace led all receivers with 25 yards.
  • Troy Polamalu gets an INT along with Lamaar Woodley and Bryant McFadden
  • My boy Vince Young has an awful, awful game (7 for 10 with 2 picks, 48.3 passer rating) so Kerry Collins finishes the game. But doesn't do a whole lot better: 80.2 passer rating.
  • Nate Washington has a TD in two straight weeks. I'm starting to buy into a little bit. But just a little bit. He also led all Titans in targets (9).
  • Chris Johnson has an awful game: 34 yards on 16 carries. Way to be on pace to beat Eric Dickerson's record!
  • Tennessee had 7 fumbles and lost four of them. Both QBs has 2 and CJ had one.
  • Another game I picked the wrong winner for: Miami beats Minnesota in Minnesota 14-10. The Bears now have a two game lead over them.
  • Illinois alum Vontae Davis gets an "interception." Favre was dumb and threw it to Percy Harvin- who happened to be triple covered. Another defender tipped the ball and David just happened to catch it (barely).
  • Chad Henne does his best game manager: 9 for 15 with 114 yards, 1 TD and no picks.
  • Ronnie Brown (13) and Ricky Williams (100 continue to essentially split time and Brown continues to be the better back- only because he's healthy. He gets 80 yards to Williams 30.
  • Because he's by far the teams best receiver, Brandon Marshall leads the Dolphins in yards (71) and targets (8) but Brian Hatline gets the TD pass.
  • Brett Favre loses the game for the Vikings with his 3 picks, 1 fumble, no TDs, and 44.3 passer rating.
  • AD tries his best to win the game with his 145 yards on 28 carries and his TD. I know how awesome Peterson is, but maybe you need to give Toby Gerhart a bit more carries. 28 is kind of a lot.
  • Visanthe Shiancoe looks like Favre's best friend with Sidney Rice out. Like Greg Olson to Jay Cutler, but with talent. Shoancoe led all Viking receivers in targets (9), receptions (6), and yards (86). Dude was on my fantasy team for the past two years and NOW I decide I don't like him. Wonderful.
  • An "upset" I got correct: Tampa Bay defeats Carolina 20-7
  • Matt Moore (60.7 passer rating) is so bad (shocking!) that he's benched for Jimmy Clausen. Who was also bad (33.8 passer rating). Shocking!
  • I love the talent of DeAngello Williams but he needs to split carries with Jonathan Stewart. Williams got 54 yards on 17 carries (3.2 YPC) while Stewart got 43 yards on 8 carries (5.4 YPC).
  • Steve Smith makes Matt Moore looks somewhat competent. Somewhat. He gets 3 catches on 8 targets with 66 yards and a TD.
  • Josh Freeman pulls a Chad Henne had does a decent job being a game manager: 12 for 24 (awful) but with 178 yards, 2 TDs, no picks, and a 102.4 passer rating.
  • I don't know how Cadallic Williams did it, but he managed to be worse in Week Two than he did in Week One. 27 carries for 51 yards. That's good for a 1.9 YPC.
  • It's Kelllen Winslow Jr. that steps up catches all four of his targets and leads all Bucs in reception yards (83).
  • Trendy sleeper Mike Williams leads all receivers in targets (7) and gets a TD to go with his 54 yards.

Who Gives The Best Fantasy Football Advice?

Besides Game of Inches of course.

In all seriousness, there are so many blogs and sites giving away fantasy football advice like Planned Parenthood gives out condoms. However, sometimes you get what you pay for. Sometimes you should have spent the extra fifteen bucks and bought Trojans from Walgreens instead out trusting the handful you got from PP. Sometimes it works out to be cheap. So out of the many sites that exist, which site works best?

Well two great friends of GOI (FFSpin and Fantasy Pros) have tried to answer that very same question.

FFSpin has partnered with Fantasy Focus Crystal Ball to determine which sites did the best job ranking players. You can see their results every Wednesday at the Fantasy Joe's section at USA Today. They determined that the top five websites for giving out fantasy advice in 2009 were:

1. Yahoo!
2. KFFL
3. FFCafe
4. FFToday
5. FFToolbox

Fantasy Pros has an accuracy page where they rank each individual fantasy sports writer's predictions and how they did per positions every week. They also ranked how the individual fantasy sports writers did last year. Besides clicking on the link to see the full results, here is a brief overview of their results:

Overall
1. Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports
2. Pat Fitzmaurice – Pro Football Weekly
3. Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports
4. Gregg Rosenthal – Rotoworld
5. David Dodds – FootballGuys

Running Backs
1. David Dodds – FootballGuys
2. Sigmund Bloom – FootballGuys
3. R.J. White – FanHouse
4. Pat Fitzmaurice – Pro Football Weekly
5. Erik Kuselias – ESPN

Wide Receiver
1. Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports
2. Gregg Rosenthal – Rotoworld
3. Pat Fitzmaurice – Pro Football Weekly
4. Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports
5. Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports

Quarterback
1. Brandon Funston – Yahoo! Sports
2. Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports
3. Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports
4. Gregg Rosenthal – Rotoworld
5. Staff – FantasyFootball.com

Tight Ends
1. Gregg Rosenthal – Rotoworld
2. Staff – FFToolbox
3. Eric Karabell – ESPN
4. Scott Engel – RotoExperts
5. Brad Evans – Yahoo! Sports

So overall who gave the best fantasy football advice in 2009? Yahoo! Whodathunkit. This year I'm putting myself in the running to see how well I stack up to these so called "experts".

The League

If you just so happen to love "Eastbound and Down", and if you don't you may as well take GOI off your bookmarks, you will probably enjoy the sophomoric debauchery that is "The League" on FX. Based on the internet previews, I thought this was a new fall series, however much like Eastbound, it premiered for 6 episodes last year. It follows 5 friends and their friendly obsession with fantasy football, so it basically describes yours, mine, and every other guys life.

What i really wanted to discuss was season 2 premier on Thursday, where the gang goes to Vegas for their annual fantasy draft hosted by Chad Ochocinco. The guys try to gain any edge they can, like outbidding each other for a private lap dance from a stripper who has all the inside info from the ballers who frequent the club. In the end, the wife of one of the members, who runs her husbands team anyway, is not allowed to enter the league, decides to give draft hints to another member of the league, the slacker caveman from "Cavemen". The team she helps him draft is so money that Ruxin is caught "rosterbating" to the draft board. I want to decide whether his team is worthy of rosterbating and whether it is even feasible to draft him team in an even semi-competitive league

In an 8-team snake draft, with the 3rd overall position, he drafted Maurice Jones Drew, Ray Rice, Philip Rivers, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Dallas Clark, Felix Jones, Eli Manning, Monterio Hardesty, Josh Cribbs, Vikings D, Chris Cooley, Jerrious Norwood, and Jason Hanson.

Yeah, that team would make me rosterbate too based on the first 8 picks alone

Why I'm Starting Mike Williams Over Randy Moss

I'm in four fantasy football leagues, which means I essentially have every football player in the universe on one of my teams and means I'll face every player under the sun. In one ten team league I'm in, my top two wide receivers are Randy Moss and Roddy White. And in this league (starting three wide outs), I am not playing Randy Moss and I am benching him for Seattle's Mike Williams.

It's not that I'm super in love with Mike Williams, it's that I'm not going to start any deep threat against the Jets and Revis Island.

In this league I only have four wide outs (Devin Aromashodu along with White, Moss, and Williams) and I'm absolutely not starting Moss.

The logic I hear for starting Moss facing Revis (mainly from the Fantasy Focus podcast) is that Moss is still an awesome talent, I think he'll be a top 3 wide out at the end of the year, and I drafted Moss to do awesome things for my team. But you know what, all I care at the end of the day is the fantasy points a guy puts up for me. I don't care about name brand or the numbers I think a player will put up in the future when I'm doing a start and sit for each individual week. All I care about is how I think a player will perform in that particular week.

In 2009, the Patriots faced the Jets in Week Two in the Meadowlands. In that game, Moss had four catches for 24 yards. In Week 11 at Gillete Stadium, Moss had five catches for 34 yards. These are not good numbers for a fantasy wide out. In fact, Andre Johnson put up similar numbers like this in Week One of 2010 and all AJ owners (including me) were super pissed about this. I still think Johnson will be the best wide receiver in 2010, but that doesn't mean he'll put up #1 wide out numbers every single week.

And speaking of the #1 overall wide out of 2009, when Johnson went up against Revis in Week One, Andre had four catches for 35 yards. Here are some other big name wide outs who had good fantasy years who went up against Darrelle Revis:

Week Four: Marques Colston (2 catches for 33 yards)
Week Six: Terrell Owens (3 catches for 13 yards)
Week Ten: Mike Sims-Walker (3 catches for 49 yards)
Week Twelve: Steve Smith (CAR): (1 catch for 5 yards)

Revis' awesomeness is extremely well documented. In fact, Nate Ravitz (Jets fan and a member of the aforementioned Fantasy Focus podcast) wrote a great article last year about Revis.

But Sexy Rexy, didn't you watch last week's MNF game and see Anquan Boldin go off for 7 receptions for 110 yards? Very valid point, and considering Joe Flacco just looked OK and the Ravens number one wide out had awesome fantasy numbers, why wouldn't you start Moss?

The difference between Boldin and the other receivers I mentioned is the type of receiver Boldin is compared to the receivers that Moss and Johnson are.

In last week's Ravens/Jets game, Boldin was mainly used in the slot whereas Derrick Mason played on the edge of Revis' side and T.J. Houshmandzadeh mainly played on Antonio Cromartie's side. And do you want to see Mason's numbers last week? 2 catches for 21 yards.

That is why I am predicting a very good game for Wes Welker, who I believe will be used very very similarly to how Boldin was used in Week One. Both Welker and Boldin are slot guys with high catch rates who love to run after the catch. I think Moss will be played on Revis whereas Welker will be played on a linebacker or safety- and NOT Darrelle Revis.

This week, I ranked Randy Moss as my 39th best wide receiver. So in a ten team league, I don't think Moss is a starter. Now on my list I also ranked Williams at the 40th best, but you know what, I'm willing to take that risk. If Mike Williams has a bad game, then I think he and Moss will put up similar numbers. But if Mike Williams goes off, then I look like a genius! Yes, because of the talent of Moss and the genius of Belichick, Moss could end up with a great day. But I really don't think he will. I'm also willing to take that "risk".

The point is, I think all Randy Moss owners should bench him this week. I know it's a bold and gutsy call and it hurts you in your heart, but I think it will pay off for you when you see how well the receiver you start does as opposed to Moss.

Sexy Rexy's Fantasy Advice: Rankings For Week Two

QUARTERBACKS

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB vs. BUF)
2. Peyton Manning (IND vs. NYG)
3. Michael Vick (PHI @ DET)
4. Tony Romo (DAL vs. CHI)
5. Matt Schaub (HOU @ WAS)
6. Drew Brees (NO @ SF)
7. Philip Rivers (SD vs. JAC)
8. Tom Brady (NE @ NYJ)
9. Brett Favre (MIN vs. MIA)
10. Jay Cutler (CHI @ DAL)
11. Donovan McNabb (WAS vs. HOU)
12. Kyle Orton (DEN vs. SEA)
13. Eli Manning (NYG @ IND)
14. Joe Flacco (BAL @ CIN)
15. Carson Palmer (CIN vs. BAL)
16. Jason Campbell (OAK vs. STL)
17. Vince Young (TEN vs. PIT)
18. Matt Cassel (KC @ CLE)
19. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA @ DEN)
20. Matt Ryan (ATL vs. ARI)
21. Chad Henne (MIA @ MIN)
22. Alex Smith (SF vs. NO)
23. Dennis Dixon (PIT @ TEN)
24. Sam Bradford (STL @ OAK)
25. David Garrard (JAC @ SD)

RUNNING BACKS

1. Chris Johnson (TEN vs. PIT)
2. Adrian Peterson (MIN vs. MIA)
3. Steven Jackson (STL @ OAK)
4. Frank Gore (SF vs. NO)
5. LeSean McCoy (PHI @ DET)
6. Ray Rice (BAL @ CIN)
7. DeAngelo Williams (CAR vs. TB)
8. Michael Turner (ATL vs. ARI)
9. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG @ IND)
10. Pierre Thomas (NO @ SF)
11. Jamaal Charles (KC @ CLE)
12. Michael Bush (OAK vs. STL)
13. Arian Foster (HOU @ WAS)
14. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC @ SD)
15. Jonathan Stewart (CAR vs. TB)
16. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT @ TEN)
17. Ryan Mathews (SD vs. JAC)
18. Ronnie Brown (MIA @ MIN)
19. Cedric Benson (CIN vs. BAL)
20. Brandon Jackson (GB vs. BUF)
21. Matt Forte (CHI @ DAL)
22. Joseph Addai (IND vs. NYG)
23. Knowshon Moreno (DEN vs. SEA)
24. Shonn Greene (NYJ vs. NE)
25. Clinton Portis (WAS vs. HOU)
26. Jahvid Best (DET vs. PHI)
27. Jerome Harrison (CLE vs. KC)
28. Reggie Bush (NO @ SF)
29. Justin Forsett (SEA @ DEN)
30. Darren McFadden (OAK vs. STL)
31. Felix Jones (DAL vs. CHI)
32. Chris "Beanie" Wells (ARI @ ATL)
33. Carnell "Cadillac" Williams (TB @ CAR)
34. C.J. Spiller (BUF @ GB)
35. Tim Hightower (ARI @ ATL)
36. Ricky Williams (MIA @ MIN)
37. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ vs. NE)
38. Peyton Hillis (CLE vs. KC)
39. Thomas Jones (KC @ CLE)
40. Fred Jackson (BUF @ GB)
41. Willis McGahee (BAL @ CIN)
42. Brandon Jacobs (NYG @ IND)
43. Chester Taylor (CHI @ DAL)
44. Marion Barber (DAL vs. CHI)
45. Darren Sproles (SD vs. JAC)
46. Correll Buckhalter (DEN vs. SEA)
47. Leon Washington (SEA @ DEN)
48. Fred Taylor (NE @ NYJ)
49. Steve Slaton (HOU @ WAS)
50. Bernard Scott (CIN vs. BAL)

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Andre Johnson (HOU @ WAS)
2. Miles Austin (DAL vs. CHI)
3. Reggie Wayne (IND vs. NYG)
4. DeSean Jackson (PHI @ DET)
5. Greg Jennings (GB vs. BUF)
6. Roddy White (ATL vs. ARI)
7. Calvin Johnson (DET vs. PHI)
8. Jeremy Maclin (PHI @ DET)
9. Wes Welker (NE @ NYJ)
10. Brandon Marshall (MIA @ MIN)
11. Marques Colston (NO @ SF)
12. Steve Smith (CAR vs. TB)
13. Larry Fitzgerald (ARI @ ATL)
14. Anquan Boldin (BAL @ CIN)
15. Malcolm Floyd (SD vs. JAC)
16. Percy Harvin (MIN vs. MIA)
17. Steve Smith (NYG @ IND)
18. Michael Crabtree (SF vs. NO)
19. Chad Ochocinco (CIN vs. BAL)
20. Dwayne Bowe (KC @ CLE)
21. Devin Aromashodu (CHI @ DAL)
22. Brandon Lloyd (DEN vs. SEA)
23. Mike Sims-Walker (JAC @ SD)
24. Johnny Knox (CHI @ DAL)
25. Hakeem Nicks (NYG @ IND)
26. Mike Wallace (PIT @ TEN)
27. Steve Breaston (ARI @ ATL)
28. Dez Bryant (DAL vs. CHI)
29. Hines Ward (PIT @ TEN)
30. Donald Driver (GB vs. BUF)
31. Devery Henderson (NO @ SF)
32. Eddie Royal (DEN vs. SEA)
33. Santana Moss (WAS vs. HOU)
34. Braylon Edwards (NYJ vs. NE)
35. Pierre Garcon (IND vs. NYG)
36. Terrell Owens (CIN vs. BAL)
37. Lee Evans (BUF @ GB)
38. Derrick Mason (BAL @ CIN)
39. Randy Moss (NE @ NYJ)
40. Mike Williams (SEA @ DEN)
41. Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE vs. KC)
42. Chris Chambers (KC @ CLE)
43. Kevin Walter (HOU @ WAS)
44. Legedu Naanee (SD vs. JAC)
45. Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK vs. STL)
46. Jacoby Jones (HOU @ WAS)
47. Josh Cribbs (CLE vs. KC)
48. Dexter McCluster (KC @ CLE)
49. Laurent Robinson (STL @ OAK)
50. Nate Washington (TEN vs. PIT)
51. Bernard Berrian (MIN vs. MIA)
52. Jabar Gaffney (DEN vs. SEA)
53. Devin Hester (CHI @ DAL)
54. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ vs. NE)
55. Nate Burleson (DET vs. PHI)
56. Roy Williams (DAL vs. CHI)
57. Anthony Gonzalez (IND vs. NYG)
58. Deion Branch (SEA @ DEN)
59. Lance Moore (NO @ SF)
60. Mike Williams (TB @ CAR)

Fantast Football Doctor: Week 2 Pick Ups

Analogous to what David "MVP" Eckstein does for The Hardball Times, I'm going to do for all you GOI fans. I promise I originally came up with the idea of doing (at least I will try and do) a weekly pick up column after watching Michael Vick run and have is way with the Packers. But then I started reading some of DME's THT stuff and I really like the format they use. So I'm going to steal it. A small tweak, I'm going to rank my pick ups (because in a league like the GOI league where all players go into waivers every week so you have to put out waiver claims and you have to rank your waiver claims) in order of where you should rank your waiver claims

1) Brandon Jackson | Green Bay | RB | 33% Yahoo! ownership

My guess is that Jackson's high ownership is because of many leagues that do not have a waiver wire system and that you can pick up any player at any time. With Ryan Grant officially out for the entire year, everyone needs to pick up Jackson. I know he didn't get the goal line TD, but he's going to be the clear cut #1 starting RB in Green Bay. Remember folks, Grant was no top tier draft pick. At one point he was the Giants #5 RB (behind Jacobs, Ward, Bradshaw, and Droughs) and he was better than Samkon Gado. Yes, an "In Gado We Trust" reference. Last year Green Bay ranked eighth in run blocking offensive lines, which bodes well for any running back.

Nevertheless, Jackson will be a starting running back on a very good offensive team. Even if you have like Ray Rice and DeAngello Williams (which I do have in a very shallow league), Jackson can at least be used on your bench/ for trade bait.

In FAAB leagues I would waste all my money on Jackson. Very rare will a starting RB come into the league that isn't on somebody's bench already.

2) Michael Vick | Philadelphia | QB | 22% Yahoo! ownership

Not only is he on an Andy Reid team (which throws it 60% of the time) but Vick will get rushing yards (it's easier to rack up fantasy points with rushing yards than passing yards) and he looked really good against a very good defense in Green Bay. Last week Vick led all Eagles in carries and rushing yards (in fact he was top 5 of all players in rushing yards). And ESPECIALLY if you lost Kevin Kolb, you need to get Vick.

If Kolb also went down for the rest of the reason I would rank Vick as my 9th best QB of the year. Vick looked accurate, has some great receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek, and is a more proven quarterback than Kevin Kolb is.

Now I do think when Kolb is healthy, he will be the clear cut starter and there will be no controversy. I don't think you trade away Donovan McNabb just to start Vick when you have the opportunity to start Kolb. But concussions are a funny injury and it wouldn't surprise me if Kolb came back in two weeks or eights weeks.

3) Brandon Lloyd | Denver | WR | 8% Yahoo! ownership

Now I play mainly in very deep leagues this year and where the WR depth is scarce so Llyod is a more attractive offer to me, but I like him a lot. In the preseason the debate with whether the Denver WR you wanted was Eddie Royal or Jabar Gaffney. But if Lloyd is healthy, I think you want him over either of those two guys (and I like Royal a lot). Now, yes, Lloyd is an Illinois alum so I'm extremely EXTREMELY biased, but last week he led all Denver wide outs in receiving yards and fantasy points. While Royal got 10 targets, Lloyd got 8, more than half of Gaffney (3).

I've seen Lloyd play in Chicago and a little bit everywhere else and I'm a big fan of his talent, but he's never been able to stay healthy. But when on the field, I like him a lot. But when, not if but when, he goes down, I like Royal. Not only did I like him in the preseason (I have two board bets with Royal vs. Thomas against Cubsfan and Royal v. Gaffney vs. FFSpin) but Jabar Gaffney hasn't done anything in the pros yet. And he had Tom Brady throwing to him at one point.

4) Peyton Hillis | Cleveland | RB | 10% Yahoo! ownership

The Browns just do not like Jerome Harrison. With Montario Hardesty getting injured, everybody thought Harrison would be a legit #1 back and thus be fantasy useful. But last week, both Hillis and Harrison got the same amount of carries (9). While I think Harrison is the better talent and better player, I will still take a guy who at least is getting consistent carries.

I like Peyton Hillis because two years ago, when I won the 'Game of Inches' league (I put that in quotes because this years GOI league essentially has the same fantasy owners as my league did two years ago) I picked up Peyton Hillis because the Broncos, without hyperbole, had lost at least five of their starting runnings backs and were forced to stat Hillis- who did very well.

So if the Browns are going to continue to feed Hillis the rock, I'm going to continue to tout him.

5) Mark Clayton | St. Louis | WR | 20% Yahoo! ownership

I only like Clayon for the deepest of leagues. That Rams offensive line is terrible which in turn will make Sam Bradford not that good. I love the talent of Bradford and with time and a MUCH improved offensive line and this young receiving corps, I have no doubt Bradford could be very good one day. Just not this year. And it's not like Mary Clayton was a stud during his stint in Baltimore.

But he did catch 10 balls for 119 yards on Sunday. I know St. Louis will be down all year and thus will be forced to throw. But that happened last year and it's not like any Rams outside of Steven Jackson were any good last year. You can be down and throwing like in Carolina and just not be effective/ give up INTs and such.

But despite everything negative I have just said I think if you have the bench room, Clayton is a nice flyer because he still is by far and away the best receiver the Rams have, he so far has good chemistry with Bradford, and the Rams will be throwing a lot. And I did rank Clayton as my 39th best wide out (which is a start in 14+ 3 wide out leagues).

Guys I'm not yet sold on:
(These are guys who I'm not yet ready to recommend. Guys I'm not completely sold that they will continue to put up good fantasy numbers in the future but won't be surprised if they do)

Legedu Naanee | San Diego | WR | 26% Yahoo! ownership

Philip Rivers is awesome so I don't doubt he can make Naanee put up better numbers than even Naanee thought possible. But I think think Malcolm Floyd puts up the best fantasy numbers of any wide out there (assuming Vincent Jackson doesn't immediately play after his suspension, and I don't think Jackson will play a down for San Diego this year). Last year, Floyd was 7th in DVOA (essentially value per play weighted against defense played) and 18th in DYAR (essentially total value weighted against defense played). This made him better than DeSean Jackson, Derrick Mason, and Brandon Marshall in the limited amount of time Floyd played. So when Floyd far and away led the Chargers in targets yet had a bad fantasy game and Naanee had the good one, I don't trust that Naanee will continue to be the wide out that has the good day. I want to see what he can do with Floyd starts to go off (or continuously not catch passes).

Austin Collie | Indianapolis | WR | 72% Yahoo! ownership

How often will you see Collie led all Colts receivers in receiving yards? My guess is this happens once, MAYBE twice the rest of the year. He had some great games last year but I think Garcon and Wayne will continue to take "catches" away from Collie and I believe Anthony Gonzalez will too. As good as Peyton Manning is, he can't throw 400+ yards EVERY game to give three Colts wide out great fantasy days. For the rest of the year I rank Colts receivers 1. Reggie Wayne 2. Pierre Garcon 3. Anthony Gonzalez 4. Austin Collie. I think this game is a fluke unless Collie shows me otherwise. The burden of proof is on you Austin!

Mohamed Massaquoi | Cleveland | WR | 49% Yahoo! ownership

This guy was a highly touted sleeper last year and did nothing. He's on a bad team, he has Turnover McGee and a Derek-Anderson-quality (still) QB in Jake Delhomme throwing to him and he only got 2 catches for 46 yards but had a good fantasy day because he caught a touchdown.

Carson Palmer | Cincinnati | QB | 92% Yahoo! ownership

Palmer was a top 5 quarterback in the league during his first four years in the NFL. But then in a playoff game in 2008, he tore up his knee. Since then he's never been the same. I drafted Palmer last year as my back up because he had more than a year to recover from his surgery, he had his boy Chad Ochocinco to throw to, yet put up a disappointing season. He just didn't look the same. I joked with Scott Pashley of FFSpin during our podcast, that before Sunday's game, I could make the argument that the best USC quarterback in the game right now was Matt Cassel. It would not shock me one bit if Palmer becomes a top 10 quarterback again because the man clearly has talent a good receiving corps, but I need to see more- especially in front of a better defense than New England.

GOI Fantasy Baseball Update



Box Score Tonight: Football/ MNF Edition

  • I know there are Jets fans that read GOI, and while I appreciate your reading, I'm sorry but I have to bash your offense. The Jets remind me of the preseason Seattle Mariners: looked like the best defense in the league but a huge question mark on how the team will put points on the board. Let's hope the Jets don't end up with the same winning percentage as the Seattle Mariners.
  • Matt Leinart got criticized for being Captain Checkdown yet Mark Sanchez is awesome! What? Even when he needed to drive 70 yards downfield for a game winning drive, he checked down to is TE /RB.
  • Sanchez put up awful numbers at the end of the day. Less than 75 passing yards, no TDs or INTs, a 3.5 YPA, and a passer rating of 56.4. Even Derek Anderson threw a TD.
  • Not only did L.T. LOOK good, he led all NY backs in yards (62) and carries (11). He also had a great 5.6 YPC. He also was 2nd among all passers in targets (4) and yards (16) and t-first in receptions (2).
  • Shonn Grenne (6) got half as many total touches as L.T. (13) and looked awful.
  • Jericho Cotchery leads all New York receivers in yards with 18.
  • Jets third down conversions: 1 for 11
  • There were times when Joe Flacco looked amazing and times when he missed wide open receivers (like in the end zone to Le'Ron McClain). He ended up with 248 yards, no TDs, one INT, and a really bad 52.6% completion percentage. I'm still not worried about him.
  • In the preseason I was wondering how anybody would be able to throw on the Jets. I got my answer last night: throw it up against Antonio Cromartie and get a pass interference penalties along with destroying the Jets rookies and safeties. Still no one was able to throw on Darrell Revis.
  • Surprisingly an opponent's #1 wide out has a great game against the Jets. Anquan Boldin gets 7 catches on 10 targets for 110 yards.
  • Ray Rice does nothing. The Jets run defense looked AMAZING. Rice's final numbers: 43 yards on 21 carries with his longest play being 7 yards. He also catches 2 passes on 4 targets for 19 yards.
  • Despite Rice clearly being the #1 back in Baltimore and ending up with -2 yards on 6 carries, Willis McGahee gets the goal line carries and the lone TD of the game
  • Todd Heap gets 6 catches on 11 targets and although it looked like Housh was far more involved in the game, T.J. Who's-Your-Mama gets 1 catch for 27 yards on 4 targets.
  • Kansas City defeated San Diego 21-14. If only some intelligent, handsome young man had predicted KC to do well in the AFC West and win at home. Oh wait…
  • This just in, Jamaal Charles is awesome. 92 yards on 11 carries and a TD (along with a 56 yard TD run in the first quarter).
  • Both Charles and Thomas Jones got 11 carries in the game. Jones' average: 3.5. Charles' average: 8.4. For fantasy purposes: I now have to put Charles in the Jonathan Stewart category- might only get 12-15 carries a game, but can easily get 100 yards and a TD with those carries.
  • I thought T.J. was a dumb signing when K.C. got him and Charles needs to get 20 carries a game
  • Matt Cassel does his best Mark Sanchez impression: 10 for 22 with 68 yards. At least Cassel got a TD with his no interceptions.
  • Dwayne Bowe gets five targets. Chris Chambers, Dexter McCluster, and TE Tony Moeaki each get 4. Moeki gets the TD. If you saw how many passing yards Cassel got, you can guess how many yards each receiver caught for.
  • Ryan Matthews gets 19 carries but only nets 75 yards and an early fumble
  • From watching the game I thought Darren Sproles was a lot more involved in the game. But he ended up with five carries (for 3 yards) and two catches on three targets for two yards.
  • Legedu Naanee, not Malcolm Floyd, got over 100 receiving yards (110) and a TD (5 receptions on 8 targets.) However Floyd by far away led the team in targets (12) and was targeted twice in the red zone at the end of the game to try and win it. However he pulled his best Larry Fitzgerald impression and only got 3 receptions, but minus the TD.
  • No need to mention Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates. Both are awesome and really good at football. 'Nuff said.

Game Of Inches Football Results: Week One

Pigskin Pick 'Em

1) Sexy Rexy (13-3)
Clutch Games: Kansas City over San Diego; Houston over Indy
WTF Games: N/A

2) Cubsfan (11-5)
Clutch Games: Seattle over San Fran; Baltimore over New York (AFC)
WTF Games: Picking Cleveland over Tampa Bay

3) The 'Bright' One (10-6)
Clutch Games: Baltimore over New York (AFC); Jacksonville over Denver
WTF Games: Picking Carolina over New York (NFC) and Atlanta over Pittsburgh

Fantasy Football GOI League

Sexy Rexy: (W) (1-0), 6th overall, 4th in Michelle Beadle division
Cubsfan: (W) (1-0), 3rd overall, 2nd in Erin Andrews division
TBO: (L) (0-1), 12th overall, 6th in Erin Andrews division

Notables:
- Cubsfan defeats TBO 101.5 to 79
- Cubsfan lost Ryan Grant for the year and Kevin Kolb for a few weeks

TBO Fantasy Baseball Med School League


Yours truly TBO is represented by the neon green line and it beautifully documents my journey to first place. After not managing the team until mid may, I have been tweaking my team in just the perfect ways to get back to first place. I was down nearly 40 points to my buddy Mitchell when the summer began, but have finally caught up to him this morning! In fact, I have made some very bold adds/drops on this team to specifically add to my stolen base and average totals. Something I probably wouldn't do in our GOI fantasy leagues because there is actual money on the line. Hopefully I can use some of the strategies I learned in this league to take down the "expert league" in the coming years.

Just like Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have done, I wish to one day win the grand slam of fantasy sports. Win the snake draft/auction draft baseball, auction draft football, and snake draft GOI basketball league, preferably in the same calendar year. I am The 'Bright' One. How do I not have any championship rings yet!?

My Quick Thoughts On The Chicago Bears

  • Jay Cutler looked awesome. The interception was his fault (he under threw the receiver, which I believe was Aromashodu) and one of his two TDs was all Matt Forte (if you saw the game you know which one), but Cutler still looked good. He looked very mobile, made great decisions (something he didn't do last year), took the sack/hit instead of trying to make a play, and overall looked awesome. But we need to take this game in stride, it was against then Lions. Also, Cutler needs to do what no other QB in Bears history has seemed to do- create scoring drives. Putting up stats is all fine dandy but at the end of the day I need him to throw TDs and not play awful when he smells the red zone.
  • Matt Forte was like my abusive boyfriend. Every time he hit me (i.e fumbled, made a bad play) he does something to make me fall back in love with him (i.e. 151 receiving yards and 2 TDs)
  • Speaking of Forte, in his 2 years in Chicago he has NEVER been able to get that one tough yard on the goal line to get a TD. In fact, last year Forte was third among backs getting carries inside the opponents 10 (36) and 5th among back getting carries inside the opponent's five yard line (19). Yet Forte only ended up with FOUR rushing TDs. Last year, Aaron Rodgers had more rushing TDs than Forte. At this point I blame Lovie Smith for sticking with Forte
  • SIDENOTE: I LOVE the fact that Lovie went for it on 4th and goal. It sucks that the Bears didn't get away with any points, but I love the cahones.
  • Chester Taylor looked awesome as well. I wanted him to get more touches but with Forte being so awesome, I'm conflicted
  • This offensive line is pure garbage. I'm extremely concerned Cutler doesn't play more than 8 games because he's taking his lumps.
  • I'm done with Greg Olson. I can handle fumbles (sort of) when you play like DeSean Jackson. But you can't play poorly AND cough up the ball.
  • Cutler seems to be looking for D.A. a lot and I'm thinking my prediction of Knox being a better fantasy WR than D.A. won't come true. But as a Bears fan I'm glad. D.A. could be a legit #1 wide out and he needs the targets like a legit number one.
  • This rushing defense looked amazing. I know Best had 2 rushing TDs but only 20 yards on 14 carries. And the D looked awesome.
  • I might have been a bit premature on calling Brian Urlacher done. Again, it's the Lions, but Urlacher looked really good along with this linebacking corps.
  • I don't know what to think about this passing D. Shaun Hill looked AWFUL, but he's also Shaun Hill. Stafford didn't look THAT much better but he's also Matthew Stafford. Calvin Johnson could have and should have (and did on his TD) had his way with Chicago's defensive backs because he's so much taller, faster, and stronger than all of them. This worries me when guys like Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Randy Moss and Miles Austin come to town. I still have a little faith in Zack Bowman. But very very little.

Box Score Tonight: Week One/ Late Games Edition

  • Derek Anderson sucks. He only completed a little under 54% of his passes. This is the career of Derek Anderson folks.
  • I'm legitimately starting to worry about Larry Fitzgerald. He can't get a touchdown EVERY week to mask his 3 catches for 43 yards
  • Finally, ONE of my fantasy sleepers that I own does well. Steve Breaston has a monster game: 7 catches for 132 yards.
  • Beanie Wells doesn't play, I'm assuming injury. Wells was extremely injury prone in college and guess what, he'll probably be injury prone in the pros. Tim Hightower does a fine job starting with his 4.3 YPC on only 13 carries- plus a TD
  • Arizona had 7 fumbles in the game: 2 each by Anderson and Hightower. I guess they're taking tips from Vince Young and AD. Some no name wide out on the Cardinals (Max Komar) only caught 2 catches on 3 targets but had three fumbles. Way to earn your spot on the team.
  • Sam Bradford was asked to do a lot: 55 attempts. It's St. Louis so I'm guessing they're going to ask him to throw a lot to try and make up for the fact that they're losing 21-0 by the half. Bradford had an average completion percentage (58.1) but 3 INTs to go along with only one touchdown.
  • Mark Clayton heard from his brother Michael that a political investigation/thriller was going on about him but if he has a monster game, the investigation will stop. I guess it's gonna stop because Clayton catches 11 passes for 119 yards on sixteen targets.
  • Because I masturbate to all 3 Illini alums in the pros, TE Michael Hoowoomadwefdbwqehjwqehfdwi catches one pass for 8 yards.
  • Stephen Jackson had a disappointing 3.7 YPC
  • I think Pete Carrol is cheating in the pros as well. The Seahawks pull off a monster win against the 49ers 31-6
  • So far the Seattle RB job is not Forsett's. He got 7 carries, Julius Jones got 8, Leon Washington got 6. Forsett was by far the better RB with 6.1 YPC. Jones and Washington got 2.3 and 2.0 respectively. Forsett was the only back to get any receptions (3).
  • Trendy sleeper Mike Williams led all Seahawks wide outs in yards (64), targets (6), and receptions (4). But only "Deion's" get touchdowns. Deion Branch and Deon Butler each catch one.
  • Frank Gore decided to pull a Michael Turner with his 2.2 YPC. Only 38 yards on 17 carries. But he salvaged his fantasy day (especially for me) by getting 6 receptions for 45 yards.
  • Ted Ginnnnnnn Jr. (1 catch, 19 yards) had a better day than Michael Crabtree (2 catches, 12 yards)
  • Vernon Davis has the best San Fransisco receiver day: 8 catches for 73 yards.
  • For some reason Alex Smith was asked to throw it 45 times. He responded by being Alex Smith, completing a little under 58% of his passes with 2 INT and 0 TDs.
  • I loved the old school unis the Eagles were rocking today. And as TBO responded, "I love the old school Michael Vick, the Eagles were rocking today"
  • Speaking of which, Brian Cushing destroys Kevin Kolb (a la Peppers to Stafford a few hours earlier) giving Kolb a concussion and forcing him to leave the game. Vick ends up having a better passer rating than Kolb and his foe Aaron Rodgers and looked a lot better than I thought he would. Vick also led the Eagles in rushing attempts (11) and yards (103)
  • LeSean McCoy only gets 7 carries. Welcome to an Andy Reid team. McCoy also does his best Brian Westbrook impression and leads all Eagles in receptions (5) and yards (47)
  • Jason Avant (4) got just as many receptions as Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. Maclin gets the TD though. Jason Avant was the best receiver ever in my 2008 Madden team I created. No seriously, in the game I made him better than what Andre Johnson is in real life.
  • Aaron Rodgers puts up really bad numbers: 19 for 31 for only 188 yards and had just as many TDs as INTs: 2.
  • Greg Jennings finally catches a TD pass (and he was WIDE open on the play, just like Jenna Jameson). He also had 10 targets, 5 receptions, and 82 yards. Old man Donald Driver also catches a TD pass.
  • As if Cubsfan's GOI fantasy team didn't take enough of a hit with Kevin Kolb getting injured, Ryan Grant also leaves the game after an impressive 5.6 YPC on 8 carries. Brandon Jackson fills in getting 63 yards on 18 carries. Full back John Kuhn gets the TD run.
  • Trendy sleeper TE Jermichael Finley has an average day: 4 receptions for 47 yards.
  • Washington pulls off the upset beating Dallas 13-7.
  • Marion Barber and Felix Jones have essentially identical rushing numbers. Both had 8 carries. Barber got 39 yards. Jones got 38. Neither had a TD. Tashard Choice gets 5 carries. It's still a cluster fuck at the RB position.
  • For anyone who doubted Miles Austin because you were dumb and thought "Oh, he only put up pro bowl numbers in 13 games and that's it" then you were proven wrong today. On 11 targets, Austin catches 10 of them for 143 yards and the lone TD of the game for either offense. I guess you don't have to be an overrated back up and can actually have talent to date Kim Kardashian.
  • Dez Braynt led all Cowboys receivers in targets (12) and was their second best receiver behind Austin.
  • Clinton Portis is the #1 back in Washington. He got 18 carries but a meager 3.5 YPC to go along with it.
  • Santana Moss and Chris Cooley each get 9 targets and 6 receptions. Cooley led all Redskins receivers with 80 yards and Moss was second with 77.
  • I guess Donovan McNabb can't focus without an entire city being pissed at him and yelling racial slurs at him. His line: 15 for 32 with 171 yards and zero touchdowns or interceptions.

Box Score Tonight: Week One/Early Games Edition

  • I'm glad to see Illinois alum Pierre Thomas get 19 carries. He deserves to get 15-20 every game and I thought he looked really good.
  • According to the box score, Marques Colston had 6 targets and caught five of them. It looked to me like he had at least three passes go his way that he could have caught but didn't. I'm thinking somebody fudged this one
  • Two years ago Lance Moore was New Orleans receivers. Last year it was Robert Meachum. Could this year be Devery Henderson's year? 38 yards (second among all Saints receivers) and a touchdown.
  • Brett Favre looked like Brett Favre. And Jay Cutler from last year.
  • For those that liked Bernard Berrian because Sidney Rice went down: 3 targets, one catch for 3 yards.
  • The Houston Texans are really good. I predicted them to win the division and a HUGE win over Indy is a good start.
  • Arian Foster got 33 carries. And he made the very most out of those carries netting 231 rushing yards and 3 TDs.
  • Matt Schaub only threw it 17 times for under 115 yards. But I guess it's hard to throw when you're handing it off to Foster.
  • Jacoby Jones got 4 more targets than Kevin Walter but both got 2 receptions for 29 yards. And Walter had a touchdown.
  • In case you didn't know it, Peyton Manning is really really good. 57 attempts but 433 yards and 3 TDs. One to Collie, Garcon, and Wayne.
  • Collie- the only Colts receiver to go over 100 yards.
  • I'm starting to think my Anthony Gonzalez prediction won't pan out well for me. 3 targets/1 reception/12 yards.
  • A lot of hype was made about Jabar Gaffney being the number one receiver out of Denver (and he had a touchdown). But Eddie Royal led all Broncos receivers in targets (10) with 98 yards. And Illinois alum and journey man Brandon Lloyd makes a resurgences leading all Broncos receivers in yards (117). If he's healthy, he's the Denver receiver I want over both Royal and Gaffney.
  • Knowshon Moreno and a typical Knowshon Moreno day- 15 carries for 60 yards. Makes up for it with a TD. He also got more than half of the carries as Buckhalter (6).
  • David Garrard had a typical David Garrard day: 16 for 21 with 170 yards and no interceptions. But also had three TDs.
  • Mike Thomas led all Jaguars in receiving yards (89) and TE Mercedes Lewis has 2 TDs. Mike Sims-Walker had 0 catches.
  • Both Peyton Hillis and Jerome Harrison each got 9 carries. Harrison's YPC was 5.8 and Hillis' 4.6. But Hillis got the TD.
  • Jake Delhomme still sucks with his 59.2 passer rating. Joshua Cribbs passer rating was 104.2
  • Speaking of Cribbs, he ran the ball, passed the ball, caught the ball, and returned the ball. But the only thing he excelled at was punt returns.
  • Cadallic Williams is running like Geo. 22 carries for only 75 yards.
  • Trendy sleeper Mike Williams caught a TD pass from Josh Freeman who also put up decent numbers: 88.7 passer rating and 2 TDs to 1 INT.
  • The Pittsburgh/Atlanta game must have been boring as hell to watch. 18 points scored during regulation, and all of them FG. Illinois alum Rashard Mendenhall won the game in extras with a 50 yard TD run.
  • Mike Wallace only had two catches, but a 31.0 AVG netting 62 yards. Hines Ward had a great game with 6 receptions for 108 yards.
  • Northern Illinois alum Michael Turner looked awful with his 2.2 YPC. 19 carries for 42 yards.
  • Roddy White had TWENTY THREE targets, 13 receptions, for 111 yards.
  • Matt Ryan still sucks: 67.6 passer rating
  • Matt Moore does his best Jake Delhomme impression 14 for 33, 182 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
  • Jonathan Stewart only had 5 carries in the game. Not cool Carolina. Especially considering he's my #1 back in one league.
  • Eli Manning tried to match Moore with 3 INTs, but also had 3 TDs to go along with it. All to Hakeem Nicks.
  • If there was ever any doubt, Ahmad Bradhaw is the clear cut starter in New York with 20 carries as opposed to Jacobs's 12.
  • Justin Bieber, er, Tim Brady's still got it: 25 for 35, 258 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs.
  • Wes Welker is clearly healthy leading all Pats receiver in targets (11), receptions (8), yards (64), and TDs (2)
  • Fred Taylor needs to get more carries. 5.1 YPC with 14 carries.
  • Carson Palmer just dug himself out of his own grave: 34 for 50, 345 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
  • Ochocinco has one of the best receiving games of the day: 13 targets, 12 catches, 159 yards, and a TD. Batman (T.O.) only had 7 catches for 53 yards. He also had 13 targets though.
  • In case you haven't been following football for the past 24 months- Chris Johnson is the best running back in the game right now. 27 carries, 142 yards, and 2 TDs
  • My boy Vince Young has a good game: 13 for 17, 154 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
  • Don't let Nate Washington lull you into a false sense of security thinking that he's good. Sure, 3 receptions for 88 yards and a TD looks good now. But don't be surprised when he doesn't get a catch in the next two weeks.
  • Jason Campbell does his best JaMarcus Russell impression: 69.7 passer rating.
  • Run DMC Darren McFadden finally has a good game in three years: 18 carries for 95 yards along with 6 receptions for 55 yards and a TD. It's tricky to run the ball, to run the ball that's right on time. It's tricky! Tricky (tricky) tricky (tricky). Especially for McFadden.
  • Michael Bush doesn't play in this game.
  • Chad Henne and Trent Edwards do their best to out do the other's sheer poorness. Henne: 75.9 passer rating, Edwards: 73.0
  • While CJ Spiller did lead all Bills RBs in carries- he only got 7. Fred Jackson got 4 and Marshawn Lynch got 3. No one had over 20 rushing yards.
  • Brandon Marshall got 13 targets. I expect this pace to keep up.
  • Ronnie Brown (13) had five less carries than Ricky Williams (18) but got 3 more yards and a TD
  • If Calvin Johnson's TD at the very end of the Bears/Lions game wasn't a TD, then I don't know what is. I don't know which official the Bears had to bribe to get that ruling but please keep it up. I'd love to cheat my way to a 16-0 record.
  • Jay Cutler looked great (23 for 35, 375 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, and a 108.3 passer rating) but could not lead the Bears down the field to score to save his life.
  • Matt Forte had a great receiving game: 7 for 7 for 151 yards and 2 TDs. He also got 17 carries to Chester Taylor's 9.
  • Cutler seems to love to look for Devin Aromashodu- 10 targets. But only five receptions.
  • Despite how good the Bears rushing defense looked (Jahvid Best: 14 carries for 20 yards) Best still got 2 rushing TDs
  • Julius Peppers knocked Matthew Stafford the hell out. Shaun Hill sucks.
  • Tony Scheffler led all Lions receivers in receptions with 6. Calvin Johnson "officially" got 4.

This Is Too Good To Be True

I'm just going to copy/paste all of Carrie Muskat's post

9/10 Best seller UPDATE

Brewers exec Tyler Barnes said they are trying to determine who left a fake release in the press box about a book allegedly written by Cubs GM Jim Hendry titled "How to Finish Near Last Place with the Highest Payroll in the League." The release was stacked next to the team notes and packets of statistics at Miller Park, saying the book was "certain to be a best seller." Barnes, vice president of communications with the Brewers, called it a "hoax."

"It's an unfortunate incident and lousy attempt at a practical joke," Barnes said.

The release, which is not credited to anyone, stated that you can "read in Hendry's own words" chapters on such topics as:

* Why I signed Milton Bradley
* Why I released Casey McGehee only to see him hit 20 home runs and drive in nearly 100 runs for a division rival.
* Why I signed players to long-term contracts with limited trade options.

The release didn't give a publication date but did encourage readers to reserve a copy now.

"This is a great rivalry between the teams and we have a great respect for each other," Barnes said. "It's a poor attempt at low-level humor."

My Man Love For Anthony Gonzalez

EDITOR'S NOTE: Don't understand some of the advanced stats used in the post like DVOA and DYAR? click here

I admit that what I'm going to say is a BOLD prediction. But hear me out.

Right before all of my fantasy drafts, I was going to write a post entitled "R.I.P. Anthony Gonzalez" about how my one time sleeper was now fantasy dead. But in the middle of writing it, I noticed that Gonzalez was #2 on the Colts wide receiver depth chart behind Reggie Wayne and ahead of media darlings Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. This fact alone made him my number one guy to target in ALL my leagues and my number one fantasy zombie (copyright ESPN Fantasy Focus 2010)

A-Gon has always had talent, was a first round draft pick, and and was drafted by probably the smartest man in football right now- Bill Polian (not only is he responsible for drafting Peyton Manning and engineering this Colts dominance but he's also responsible for the great Bills teams of the early 90's that went to four straight Superbowls). Polian is the #1 guy whom I trust to spot talent when he sees it and to let his talented players play. And I trust, barring another crazy injury, that Anthony Gonzalez will play.

When Gonzalez first got drafted in 2007, all time great and trigger happy Marvin Harrison was on his way out. I'm sure the Colts planned for and what seemed to occur was that Reggie Wayne would take Harrison's place and Gonzalez would take Wayne's. In 2009, the Colts finally got their wish and released Marvin Harrison. 2009 was the year of Anthony Gonzalez!

And then A-Gon goes and gets injured in Week One.

In 2007, Gonzalez's rookie season, he was 1st in the NFL in DVOA (essentially value per play weighted against defense played) and 13th in the league in DYAR (essentially total value weighted against defense played). Considering there are 32 teams, each who start two receivers (and most give a decent amount of looks to it's third), Gonzalez was putting up some pretty impressive numbers- as the teams' #3 wide out. In 2008 Anthony put up similar numbers ranking 3rd in DVOA and 13th in DYAR. A-Gon also had great hands posting no less than a 72% catch rate in his first two seasons. To put that in perspective, out of 89 players with at least 50 targets in 2009, only six wide receivers had a catch rate above 70%- and one of those guys was Wes Welker. In the past three years, neither Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, nor Reggie Wayne has had a catch rate above 69%.

Anthony Gonzalez looked prime to step up and become not only awesome in fantasy, but also for the Colts. Instead, with Harrison out and Gonzalez injured, two nobody's named Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon stepped up and become offensive threats for the Colts.

But now let's take a ride in the DeLorean and see what would have happened if A-Gon had stayed healthy for all 16 games in 2009. Now admittedly, one, this entire premise is pure conjecture. What if Anthony Gonzalez had stayed healthy? What if a meteor came down to Earth and killed Peyton Manning? What if, what if, what if. Second, it's extremely hard to predict things like YPR (yards per reception) year in and year out. I can give you an player's average but what if that player performed worse than average in that individual year? Or better? What if in 2009 A-Gon had an anomaly year that was Troy Tulowitski-esque (maybe Brett Favre-esque would be a better analogy for you football guys that don't follow baseball)? Third, a lot of Gonzalez's value and good numbers came from him playing the slot and playing as a 3rd receiver. Playing on the edges as a legit #2 would decrease his numbers like catch rate, however there's no scientific formula (Yet! Get on it Football Outsiders!) of how a catch rate correlates with playing the slot versus playing the edge.

But that being said, let's try to predict what Gonzalez would have done anyway.

Last year, Peyton Manning threw 571 passes: 149 went to Reggie Wayne, 132 went to Dallas Clark, 91 went to Pierre Garcon, 90 went to Austin Collie, 63 went to Joseph Addai, and 46 went to other receivers. Last year, about 31.7% of Manning's passes went to Collie and Garcon. But how Peyton Manning distributed the ball last year has been atpyical of how he has done it the previous years because during Gonzalez's tenure, Manning has had a clear cut #1, #2, and #3 receiver (something he didn't seem to have in 2009). In 2008 (when Harrison played in 15 games), Wayne (#1) received 23.6%, Harrison (#2) received 19.3% and Gonzalez (#3) received 14.2% of Manning's attempts. While the breakdown between 2008 and 2009 is obviously not identical, and here's where I have to do some educated guessing, how many targets Gonzalez probably would have received should be analogous to what Harrison saw the year before.

Manning attempted 16 more passes in '09 than he did in '08 and Reggie Wayne saw 18 more attempts last year than he did the year before. Based upon how Manning threw when he had a clear cut #2 and #3 receiver in 2008 and the statistical difference in how Manning threw to Reggie Wayne in 2009, I will say that Gonzalez would have gotten 111 attempts leaving about 70 if either Collie or Garcon had stepped up as the clear cut #3 (as opposed to essentially the 50/50 split that occurred between Collie and Garcon).

Next, to see how many catches A-Gon would have had, we have to take his targets and multiply it by his catch rate (considering no receiver catches 100 percent of the balls thrown his way with 50+ attempts). As I mentioned earlier, Gonzalez has never had a catch rate below 72%. But Gonzalez rarely started/played on the edge which is where he would have lined up had he replaced Harrison. This means an expected decrease in his catch rate (I'm not going to get into why, but think about why Randy Moss's CR, never been above 61% in the past three years, and Wes Welker's CR, never been below 75% in the past three years, is so different and you'll understand why moving from the slot to the edge decreases your catch rate).

Last year, the elite wide outs had a catch rate between about 63 and 68%. Again, I'll use my best judgment but we'll say Gonzalez had a 65% CR (I'm being very conservative and 'realistic'). So catching 65% of 111 balls thrown his way is good for: 72 catches.

In 2007 Gonzalez had a 15.6 YPR. In 2008 he had a 11.6 YPR. If you can tell me with a straight face and claim you weren't lying and tell me what Gonzalez's YPR would be in 2009, then I'd slap you in the face (OK, I'm not THAT mean so I won't, but don't get me angry. You're not going to like me when I'm angry). But if we were to use logic and rationality we could make an educated guess. During Gonzalez's rookie season, Marvin Harrison only played in 5 games. In 2008 he (unsuccessfully) played in 15 games. So if we had to guess what number Gonzalez's YPR would be, I would say it's closer to his 2007 campaign than his 2008. Plus, guys like Marques Colston, Roddy White, Miles Austin, Vincent Jackson, Roy E. Williams, and T.O. all had YPR of 15.0+ in 2009 so to give Gonzalez a 15.0 YPR seems reasonable (Again, I'm trying to be very conservative).

An average of 15.0 YPC with 72 catches equals 1080 yards.

Lastly, we have TDs. In 2007 and 2008, Gonzalez had 8 receiving TDs in 11 games started. That extrapolated over a full 16 season equals about 11 TDs. Last year Collie and Garcon combined for 11 TDs so maybe Gonzalez would have had 8-9. But TDs vary every year and are extremely random (Hell, Greg Jennings only had four in 2009 when Aaron Rodgers had the best season of his career, was the best QB in the league last year, and virtually every one of Jennings other numbers looked identical). I can make reasonable inferences about a players YPR and targets based upon history and statistical data, but no amount of evidence can be gathered (short of grabbing that sports almanac that's the basis of Back To The Future II) to predict TDs.

Before I get into what I think Gonzalez would have done in 2009, I want to talk a bit more about what I think he'll do in 2010 (this will make sense in a moment your honor, I promise).

I think Gonzalez is going to do something very similar this year as he would had he been healthy in 2009. If I had to predict Gonzalez's 2010 numbers, I would still use the same catch rate and YPR, but recently, AOL Fanhouse created a projection list of how many targets each receiver on each team will get. Like everybody else, they predict Wayne and Dallas Clark will get the most (130) and Pierre Garcon will get the third most (110). But I truly believe that Gonzalez will get those 'Garcon' targets and be the second best wide receiver on the Colts. (Likewise, with this rationale, I am VERY down on Pierre Garcon. You can get him in free agency or as a late pick or for a dollar, then I like his value. But short of that, I do not recommend drafting Pierre Garcon just because of his decreased targets). Considering the only difference between Gonzalez' 2009 predictions and in his 2010 projection is the one less target in 2010....

So without further ado, here is what I project for Anthony Gonzalez to do in 2010 as well as what I thought he would have done (essentially) last year had he played all 16 games (conservatively):
110 targets/ 72 receptions/ 1080 yards/ 8 TD/ 1 fmbl

From a fantasy perspective, that would have been good for 154 points- good for the 13th best wide out right behind Wes Welker and right ahead of Marques Colston.

Listen, if I'm wrong, then what did you really lose? A dollar flyer in your auction draft. A free agency pick up. Your very last pick in your snake draft. However, I truly believe in Gonzalez and drafted him in my 10 team and 14 team leagues and will draft him in my 12 team league tonight and I hope I've convinced you to take a flyer on him as well.