Can Kansas City Really Make The Playoffs?

Right now, the Kansas City Royals are in first place. Just let that thought sink into your head. Kansas City, the team that has been the laughing stock of Major League Baseball for so long is in first place. Last year, the perennial losers, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (after dropping the "Devil" from their name) made it all the way to the World Series. Right now, the Royals are looking to do the same.

Currently, they have THE best pitcher in baseball in Zack Greinke and are holding on to a two game lead in the AL Central. But how many times have we as baseball fans seen this before. Teams all the time get off to hot starts and end up sizzling come June. So I beg the question: are the Kansas City Royals for real?

Well the cliche we hear all the time is that if a team is to be successful, it's all about pitching and defense. Now frankly, you can win it all with offense but pitching and defense can take you far. Right now, the Royals have the second best FIP in all of baseball, only to the Braves. This is actually falling in line with their ERA, seeing as the team only has a E-F of -0.06. Not only do the Royals have Greinke but also Gil Meche who currently has the 5th best FIP. Although the team also has Sidney Ponson (5.06 FIP, 7.16 ERA) and Kyle Davies (5.62 FIP, 5.88 ERA) and both have average to below average K/9 and K/BB. But as a whole team, the Royals are doing very well.

Their defense is also doing very well rating 10th in UZR/150. Coco Crisp is the second best defender in all of baseball only to Joe Crede (fucker couldn't play THIS good in Chicago- mainly last year, but I digress...) and Mark Teahan is currently playing above average defensively. But when Billy Butler is you're team's 3rd best defender and you only have 4 defenders in the top 100 in UZR/150, you're on shaky grounds. To add to that, David DeJesus is playing below average defense and that middle infield of Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo is just atrocious right now. But I'll give them their props of doing very well as a team.

But pitching and defense means nothing if you can't score SOME runs. This has actually been the huge criticism of the team now and continues to be a concern going forward. But right now, the Royals are 13th in Runs Scored, 11th in BB, 14th in wOBA, and 13th in OPS. This is almost literally- average. Out of 30 teams they're barely above 15th in all these categories. But yet despite all of this, the team is 7th overall by record in terms of runs scored according to Baseball Prospectus. However, if they can maintain this, I really don't see this as TOO MUCH of a problem. Because if you're really good at preventing runs, then scoring runs isn't AS big of a deal as it should be (see 2008 Angels).

But despite the pretty good success of the Royals, BP still projects the Detroit Tigers to win the division giving them about a 41.5% chance versus the Royals at a measly 22%. See this I don't understand. I can see it plausible the Royals start is a fluke, but to say the Tigers of all teams will beat them out? Even if Justin Verlander reverts back to his old self (which according to DME and I agree he can at least come close), and Armando Galarraga doesn't suck all year, I still think Greinke and Meche are better. I also have a hard time believing Edwin Jackson will continue to be THIS good (even remotely good) and Rick Porcello hasn't shown anything yet. The White Sox and Royals currently have a better FIP than the Tigers and Kansas City and the Twins have better UZR/150. The Royals have a better team wOBA than Detroit. better BB%, better OPS, and have only scored 10 less runs than Detroit (yet are still 2 games ahead). Now I think in the end the Tigers will have a better offense and I will admit that although the Royals are currently ahead of the Tigers in many categories, the lead isn't THAT big. But enough to warrant a a 20% better chance to make the playoffs boggles my mind.

Now I'm sure DME can better explain to me BPs reasoning because I'm sure it is valid and I'm sure he'll explain why Kansas City probably will fizzle out before June. But the fact that the Royals have a damn fine pitching corps, an above average defense, and decent hitting along with playing in one of the worst divisions in baseball, I think they do have a legit shot. Now seeing this team lose so badly for the past 4 years or so and not seeing them making any drastic changes makes me personally question how far this team can go and seeing as these stats I looked up are only a month old, I still think they can be contenders in the end. Again, a terrible division doesn't hurt either.

So are the Kansas City Royals for real? Probably not. But can they compete for most if not all of the year? I think so.