Does Charlie Manuel even watch baseball?

Everything that is wrong with Baseball is encapsulated within this yahoo blurb within Jimmy Rollins' Y! Profile:
SS Jimmy Rollins became only the second player in Phillies history to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases in a season in 2007. Since that season, he has hit only 14 homers in 186 games. "Power's still there," manager Charlie Manuel said. "I'm not saying he's going to hit 30 this year. But I'm saying he possibly could. If he did it once, why can't he do it again? He's 30 years old." Manuel said opposing pitchers have adjusted to Rollins by throwing high fastballs out of the strike zone and slow breaking balls. "They respect the fact that he has power more," Manuel said. "They work on him more. When Jimmy's patient, he'll get better balls to hit."
Let's actually look at the facts instead of make blind, ignorant assumptions.

In 2007, Jimmy Rollins hit 30 home runs, averaging 379 feet per jack. His HR/FB rate was a league-average 10.7% and he set a career high in long balls thanks to an 8% uptick in FB% compared to both his previous season and his career average. With a career ISO just over .160, he's not a slugger by any means. His power numbers are about .20 points short of Youkilis's average numbers, pre-2008. Thus, if we normalize Rollins' numbers to represent his career averages in power, he calculates to be more as a 15-20 home run guy. Not a 25-30 tater slugger. There is very little evidence to suggest that Rollins' 2006-2007 power surge was anything more than an outlier -- his K and BB rates remained constant, the power (380 foot home runs) was not impressive or improved (it actually decreased) and he saw career highs in change ups thrown to him. Rollins' 2008 production level was more along the lines of his true ability.

Now, Manuel claims that Rollins is seeing more offspeed breaking pitches since his 2007 "breakout" -- this couldn't be any more wrong. As his fangraphs page indicates, Jimmy Rollins is seeing less change ups, less cutters, less sliders and about an equal number of curveballs (although he is seeing 2% more curveballs this season compared to 2007) since his 30 jack season.

I don't know what game Charlie Manuel is watching, but it's clearly not baseball.

Also, as a side note, there is just so much not to like about Rollins at this point -- the three year slide in speed score (it sits at a career low 6.4), the increasing age and decreasing ISO, the lack of LDs and BBs, etc.


The 'Bright' One said...

dont you mean jerry manuel? lol