Hitting from the back (stop) side

One of the most intriguing positions in fantasy baseball to me is catcher. Inevitably, every year, it is not very deep and never a position where one can expect too much fantasy value. This year, I tried to target more known entities at catcher as opposed to trying to find the next big up-and-comer, which I always fail at doing. In one of my leagues, I drafted Joe Mauer, who thankfully recently came off the DL to success. This is fantastic news for me, especially considering in that league I had been relying on John Buck at catcher at one point.

In my other two leagues in which I am sole manager, I have Russell Martin as my catcher. When I drafted him, I expected decent production out of him. I was expecting from him relative success and hoping for a repeat of his 2007 campaign, in which he had 87 runs, 19 home runs, 87 RBIs, 21 steals, a .293 average, .374 on base percentage and .469 slugging percentage. To note, I looked at the stats based on the categories in the fantasy leagues.
Even last year, Martin had a solid year for a catcher. Here is his line for 2008: 87 R, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 18 SB, .280 AVG, .385 OBP, .396 SLG

Prior to this season, Fangraphs projected more of the same from Martin, with his stats expected to fall in line between his 2007 and 2008 campaigns.If you have been paying attention to Martin this year as I have, you know he has not been performing to his credentials or expectations at all. At this point in the season, he has a .224 average, a .320 on base percentage and a measly .271 slugging percentage. As you can imagine, I have been severely disappointed by Martin thus far this season. I put perhaps too much of an onus on getting a top tier catcher, except Martin has been giving me bottom tier results. So what is up with the Canadian backstop? Is this a sign of things to come or merely a temporarily lull before he breaks out and starts hitting again?

I decided to look at some other stats besides the ones measured in my fantasy leagues to determine the culprit. This year, he has been striking out a walloping 24.7 percent of the time. Shocking especially considering his K rate fell from 16.5% in 2007 to 15% last year. His walk percentage is an acceptable 11.5%, in the same area as his 11% BB percentage in 2007 but below last year’s 14% walk percentage.

Here is a few more stats to consider:
2007: .368 wOBA, .322 BABIP, .176 ISO
2008: .351 wOBA, .311 BABIP, .116 ISO

Certainly, I expected a slight decline in Martin’s numbers this year over his performances in years past. What I was not expecting what his 2009 output thus far.2009: .273 wOBA, .297 BABIP, .047 ISO

Really, when you take a close look at his numbers from past years and at possible trends, you can expect a very slight drop in most of his numbers, with an expected rise in his walk percentage, leading to a rise in his on base percentage. By most indicators, he should be doing much better than he has been doing.

If this is the case, then why has he been making eating fantasy turd sandwiches thus far this season? To be honest, I am not exactly sure. In 2007 and 2008, he had over 80 at bats in April. This past April, he had 78 at bats. Did the World Baseball Classic add an unnecessary amount of wear and tear on Martin, especially considering the catcher position is one of the more physically demanding fielding spots? At this point, that is my best guess, but it is too early to tell for sure. His past numbers and predicted trends make his 2009 performance thus far look more like an abnormal cold streak than a sign of things to come. Either way, if I hope to be competitive in those fantasy leagues later on in the season, I hope he starts improving his stats to be more line with what he has already shown he can do. I am not sure I am stomach a .224 average and a.271 slugging percentage out of one of my daily offensive starters for too much longer.