Can Mark Buerhle Keep This Up?

I'm about to do something unprecedented- I'm going to write a generally unfavorable review about a White Sox player. Now it should be clear to anyone who knows me or has read my baseball analysis and comments to know that I am a huge White Sox fan. In fact, I even wrote an entire post to why I'm a big Buehrle fan, although dude's last name is still hard to spell. And I still do like Buehrle overall as a player, but right now he's doing amazing, and I don't think it will last.

Right now, the lefty is 4th in the AL in ERA, 2nd in Wins and record going 5-0 in six games started, and has a decently high IP (something I like about Buehrle because that means when he pitches he doesn't tax the bullpen). This is great news for me as a Sox fan because right now he's pitching extremely well for the team. Now Buehrle pitching extremely well should not really be that big of a surprise to anyone. While Fangraphs has pointed out that Buerhle is "consistently inconsistent", that doesn't mean there should be any reason why he can't be good. Last year and 2005 are both examples of Buehrle pitching great. But after looking at his peripherals and his career numbers, I don't think this right now can last.

Right now, Buehrle's FIP is 4.05. The two years it was ever that low was last year and 2005 where they both were under 4 (3.94 and a damn good 3.42 respectively). So that's not to say that his FIP can't ever be low and that he can't maintain this 4.05, but this seems a bit sketchy to me. But even if Buehrle can maintain this low of a FIP, he still does have a defense behind. And while theoretically Buehrle can have a low ERA and such, in reality, he's inducing balls into the 3rd worst defense in the majors in terms of UZR/150.

There are still other signs for concern. Right now the Sox ace has an 82.9 LOB% and an extremely low .245 BABIP. All these are abnormal for Buehrle. He's never had a LOB% above 76 and a BABIP under .282 since 2002 (in fact that low of a BABIP WAS in '02). Right now he's inducing less balls in play and getting more lucky that his runners aren't coming around to score. In fact, he's having more runners reach base because he's walking guys more now than ever while inducing less ground balls and more fly balls.

Buehrle's BB/9 is the highest its ever been in his career since his rookie season while is SO are remaining consistent with his career. His GB/FB has decreased significantly because the ground ball pitcher is inducing about 6% less ground balls and giving up about 6% more fly balls. He's also getting extremely lucky that the fly balls he's giving up, especially while calling his home a HR friendly park, aren't going for HRs. The guy has never really given up a whole lot of HRs in his career but his .71 HR/9 is the lowest its ever been in his career.

Buehrle is walking more guys, putting less balls in play yet giving up less ground balls and more fly balls, yet miraculously giving up less home runs, and getting really lucky that his runners aren't scoring. All of this while having one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him. All of this smells recipe for disaster.

I believe that Buehrle's cooshy low ERA and high W is going to come down. He's playing out of his mind and if he's on your fantasy team I would be happy to just ride out this luck as long as I can because it seems to me that soon he's going to have a couple of bad games. But despite all this, I think he'll have an average to above average year. I see no reason why this year can't be at least somewhat similar to his 2008 campaign. I see no reason why Buehrle's levels can't at least jump up to how they were in his greater years. I certainly don't believe he'll be as bad as he was in '06 or '07 but he won't as good as he was in '05 or '08 either.