My only problem with FIP

Despite my love for FIP and xFIP data, I must confess I find there to be a minor "flaw" in the rudimentary calculation. The currently accepted formula is FIP=3.2+((12*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP). xFIP uses the same formula, but with home run rates normalized against flyball percentages.

Sadly, BBs alone do not entirely capture a pitcher's command -- it lacks recognition and acknowledgment of the players who pitchers periodically plunk. I strongly feel that for FIP/xFIP data to be as accurate as possible, the following change should be considered: replacing 3*BB with 3*(BB+HBP-IBB). Such a move would help to rate comparable pitchers with variable wild tendencies when it comes to throwing inside (we can't really add wild pitches to the data calculation because of the catcher bias on the results; FIP measures the Fielding INDEPENDENT Pitching stats of a hurler).

Maybe this is a useless crusade, but I think it will have a subtle, but positive impact on player ratings. Furthermore, even if this measure is never considered, I strongly lobby that we remove IBBs from WHIP and replace them with HBPs.

That is all for now. Bed time. Zzzzzz...


The 'Bright' One said...

the formula should also incorporate the crappiness that is major league umpires

Just replace K and BB terms with "whatever the fuck the umpire decides to be the strike zone on that particular day"