Sometimes right, sometimes wrong

The season is now two months over and its reflection time. Here is a look at 10 things I got right and 10 things I got miserably wrong during the pre-season:

Things I got right:
10 - Javier Vazquez returns to dominance following the league switch, change of scenery and defensive upgrade
09 - Erik Bedard has a healthy, effective season
08 - Nelson Cruz is a .275, 35 HR, 20 SB hitter (he's on pace for 42 HR, 27 SB)
07 - Roy Oswalt is overrated and on the decline (look at the three year trend in homers)
06 - Denard Span wins the third OF job and dominates (that Santana trade looks worse every day)
05 - DO NOT OVERPAY FOR SAVES (earlier round guys like BJ Ryan, Jose Valverde and Joakim Soria have all gone on the DL (and/or lost their closer jobs), while late round guys like Brian Wilson, Matt Lindstrom and Heath Bell all have double digits saves and plenty of job security)
04 - Gavin Floyd is not very good (his 9.5% HR/FB rate on the season is 1.5% below last year's mark and the league average)
03 - Dan Haren is the best value pitcher on draft day (the Ws have been slow to come, but who can argue against a 7.89 K/BB, 9 K/9 and 2.54 ERA? Answer: Matthew Berry)
02 - Matt Kemp hits like gangbusters (Joe Torre is a fucking moron for batting Kemp in the 7/8 holes. With a 19.5 LD%, 7.3 speed score, Kemp can sustain the .387 BABIP. His 20/35 power/speed combo is matched by very few)
01 - Justin Verlander is deadly (the day I wrote this post is the day Justin Verlander turned his whole season around. In May, he posted a 1.52 ERA, 5 Ws and 5.09 K/BB (56 Ks) in 41.1 IP. That's Greinke-like)


Things I got horribly wrong:
10 - Do not believe in Edwin Jackson (I sold him for Scott Baker three starts in to the season, woe is me)
09 - Dan Uggla will hit 30 HR and no worse than .265 (he's on pace for the homers, but the BA is wicked terrible)
08 - Chone Figgins is not very good anymore (.296 BA, 20 SB this season)
07 - Ortiz in round 5 is VALUE (I'm so glad someone valued him as a 4th round pick, or I'd be the idiot with Papi Lite)
06 - Brandon Morrow as a guaranteed closer/starter (Not a starter, not a closer, still throws 100 though)
05 - Manny Parra is a top tier sleeper (Fuck the Ks and GBs. The BBs are evil. He burned me so bad that I dropped him. Then he had five great starts in a row and someone else in the league picked him up. He has a 9.5 ERA in his last 10 IP)
04 - Jason Motte will close (who would have thunk Ryan Franklin could strike so many guys out with his six below average pitches)
03 - Joe Mauer is a waste of my time (he's hitting .400+ with 11 home runs. I don't think he hits more than 25 this season, but man is he on fire. Who could have predicted this kind of production from an injury concern who has never hit more than 13 homers in a season and sports a .153 career ISO?)
02 - Rich Harden gets 250 Ks this season (surprise surprise, Harden's back on the DL. At least it's not his elbow/shoulder)
01 - Evan Longoria and Kevin Youkilis are overrated (Longoria leads the league in R+RBI and Youkilis, who never posted a .180+ ISO before 2009, now leads the majors in wOBA)


I also totally called that Richie Sexon sucks and will continue to suck his way out of baseball, but I technically called that one long, long ago...