Analyzing the 2008 First Round RB Class

The NFL is full of some young great RBs. In fact, most of the RBs that are starting now or is a prominent back up in this current 2 RB league. in the NFL were drafted in 2008. The list includes: Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice, Tim Hightower, and Justin Forsett. An overall pretty impressive list, no?

2008 is looking like a pretty damn good year to draft a RB and I wish I had the time to analyze all these players, but the first round is a pretty good place to start. Now obviously the maximum amount of games these guys have had is only 25, so the sample size is not the greatest, but it's pretty interesting which team had the foresight to draft well.

#4 Overall: Run DMC Darren McFadden
Most of Run DMC's young career has been riddled by injury starting in only 5 games and playing in only 18. In his rookie year, he had a fine 4.4 YPC but only averaging about 8.5 carries per game. This year, however, he is averaging a measly 3.1 YPC with a little over 10 carries per game. He averages .277 TDs per game

In his freshman year, he had a negative DYAR and DVOA (which is really bad and he was really inefficient). He's not much better this year, in fact (obviously as the "normal" stats show) he's regressed.

However, I can't say that McFadden is totally to blame, the Oakland offensive line has been awful in run blocking ranking 26th last year and 20th this year.

#13 Overall: Jonathan Stewart
Unfortunately for Stewart he plays with last year should-have-been MVP DeAngelo Williams and who is having another monster year this year. So while Stewart has never started, he has played in all 25 games for the Panthers. While he only averages a career 11.8 carries per game, he does great things with those carries. Last year he averaged 4.5 YPC and this year he's raised that this year to 4.8. He is also a TD machine getting 10 last year and 6 this year. Stewart averages .64 TD's per game.

Clearly, Stewart had been very efficient ranking 6th of all RBs last year in DYAR and 12th in DVOA. This year, he ranks 17th in both.

However, when two RBs on a team do well, the most likely answer for this is the offensive line and not the RB itself. Last year, Carolina had the 8th best run blocking line and this year they rank 13th. So while Stewart is very good and durable, I'm sure a lot of his success is due the line and maybe not him.

#22 Overall: Felix Jones
After Dallas let go of Julius Jones, they decided to draft another Jones, Run DMC's back up in college. In Jones' first few games, he looked amazing. But injuries and carries has hindered him since. He's only started in 13 games so far with a career 74 attempts, 4 TDs, and a whopping 7.7 YPC. However, this YPC is probably due more to the limited carries he's had and will probably diminish with more and consistent workload. However, even for this analysis, I'd say it's just too small of a sample size to rally really determine how good Jones can be/ is. But it doesn't look promising to draft a first rounder who is constantly getting injured.

#23 Overall: Rashard Mendenhall
Again, we have a sample size problem because Mendenhall was injured all of his rookie, but he looks good this year. He has successfully stolen the job away from Willie Parker and is now a top back in this league. This year, with a consistent workload, he's averaging 5.4 YPC and 4 rushing TDs. He's averaging .31 TD's per game.

This year Mendenhall ranks 13th in DYAR and 14th in DVOA. The Steelers O-line is 11th in the league in blocking. But I give a but more credit to Mendenhall here than to Stewart because Willie Parker didn't do shit with the same O-line, whereas Stewart is playing with another back who is having success.

#24 Overall: Chris Johnson
This year, Johnson is first among all RBs in fantasy football, first in rushing yards, 4th in rushing TDs, 2nd in DVOA, 4th in DYAR, and is on his way to a second pro bowl in only two years. Yeah, mo fo is good. He had a 4.9 YPC last year and he raised that to 6.4 this year. He has 17 career rushing TDs and 2 career receiving TDs. He averages .79 TDs per game.

What really bolsters the case for Johnson's talent is that the Tennessee run blocking have been below average ranking 15th last year and 26th this year. Again, mo fo is just amazing.

Clearly draft position has meant nothing to how guys have performed because I would rank:
1) Chris Johnson
2) Jonathan Stewart
3) Rashard Mendenhall
4) Felix Jones
5) RUN DMC

Clearly you make easy arguments that guys like Forte, Kevin Smith, Slaton, Hightower, and Rice should be included in this discussion of who's the best RB to come out of this draft class. In fact, it also goes to show you that while as good as these five guys have been, you shouldn't draft a RB in the first round because you can always find just as good, if not better talent, in later rounds. I think how people view the 1996 draft for wide outs, people will view the 2008 draft for RBs.