Headline News: Grady Sizemore Does Not Shave His Bush (But He Does Trim It)

Extra! Extra! Read all about it! Semi-nude pictures of Grady Sizemore were stolen from his computer and posted online. Disclaimer: Game Of Inches (hence referred to as "GOI") neither sold nor bought these personal pictures which have no common law signature of copyright upon them (and we assume there exists no pending copyright of these photographs). That said, enjoy the best of the collection below. Feel free to click the pictures to "enlarge" them (oh yeah, and they are probably NSFW)...







(Size)more nude pics with bush.


We get it, you're a 30/30 athlete. Now put on some freakin' pants.


Jerkin it to Playboy.


Jerkin' it to himself...


Teabaggin'

GM Mark Shapiro's comments?
"I have not seen the pictures," said GM Mark Shapiro, "but I will look into it."

We bet he will.

(Got to love that "fair use" of non-commercial materials in a non-commercial context!)

The Who To Play At The Superbowl

Along the line in recent Superbowls of old, great rock bands playing at the halftime (Bruce Springsteen, Tom Petty, and The Rolling Stones), the greatest band to ever play at halftime will be playing at the Superbowl this year- The Who. Although it won't be the same because the best rhythm section in rock history and the band's two greatest musicians are dead, The Who might be the best live band in rock history and still rock with Daltrey, Townshend, and Ringo Starr's son Zak Starkey. I'll treat you with some classic Who songs to get you pumped up for a Patriots/Saints Superbowl, er, the Superbowl this year:







How Does The Name Tiger Woods Not Appear Once In This Police Call?



Seriously, this dude keeps referring to Tiger Woods as his neighbor. How do you not know that your neighbor is Tiger Woods!? Seriously, how many black people, who happen to be the richest most famous athlete of all time, do you have living in the subdivision to not know it's Tiger Woods. Maybe Tiger's face was more messed up than Jimmy Clausen's such that the guy couldn't even recognize him. And Tiger was driving a Cadillac Escalade? I was sure he drove a Buick in real life.

Jay Cutler Does Not Suck


I knew this would happen.

I'll find it somewhere, but I knew Chicago fans would turn on Cutler. I thought it would happen differently, but during every Bears QBs bad stretches, Chicago fans get angry and use the QB as a scapegoat.

Now I'm not saying Cutler doesn't deserve ANY blame. He absolutely does. He still is making poor decisions and tries to force a LOT of passes (especially to Greg Olson) and he needs to learn to sometimes just take the sack. But even is Cutler DID do that, wouldn't we all just criticize for not taking risks? It's hard to justify a guy who has THREE more interceptions than TDs and I don't care what team you're on, that's just unacceptable and turning the ball over (and TO ratio) is the single biggest reason a team wins or loses a game. But Cutler turning over the call is not his fault.

1) The Offensive Line
Football Outsiders ranks the Bears O-line as the 15th best O-line. Dead even; middle of the pack. However, in reality the offensive line is worse than that. FO ranks pass blocking mainly by how many times the QB gets sacked. It seems they don't take into account how many times the QB gets rushed or thrown out of the pocket, which also falls on the O-line. And because of the awfulness of Olin Kruetz and Orlando Pace, Cutler gets rushed and thrown out of the pocket A LOT, on top of all the sacks. This makes it harder for Cutler to make throws. Now normally sacks and S/100 do not affect a QBs performance, but for Cutler, they do make a factor. Throughout Cutler's career, there is a strong correlation between S/100 and completion percentage and a decently string correlation between S/100 and TD/INT ratio. Essentially, the worse off the O-line is, the worse off Cutler is

2) The Receiving Corps
If you watched the Bears first game, you saw Cutler throw 4 interceptions. You also saw that three weren't his fault. On one play, Johnny Knox went the wrong way on his route so Cutler threw the ball where he was supposed to, unfortunately, there was a Packer there instead of Knox. Now the receiving corps is a lot better than we all expected, but still a cause for a handful of Cutler's INTs. I do however take less blame off of them because as the season progressed, they have gotten better and Cutler still hasn't. I.E.- the last game Bears at Eagles where Cutler was missing receivers like Cutler was missing insulin. However, you put Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Brandon Stokley back with Cutler and I guarantee you Cutler performs better.

3) Ron Turner
I don't know who Turner had naked pictures of, but can we please burn them so Turner has no leverage over people in the Bears front office. This offense has been bad for a long time with multiple players and coaches. It is obvious that Turner is an awful coach and is not qualified to anything football related, nevertheless a NFL offense. A bad coordinator just hurts his offense and Turner hurts his offense.

4) The Running Game
This absolutely goes back to the offensive line. But an O-line can be great at pass blocking and bad at run blocking (or vice versa). The poor blocking up front causes Matt Forte to be crappy. This means teams don't have to respect the run and can send extra defenders into coverage instead of inside the box. This again just makes Jay Cutler's job even tougher.

This entire offense is really bad and I believe the entire blame should not fall on Cutler for the poor effort and lack of talent of the players around him. Do you all forget just how much you loved Cutler just a month or two ago? This guy is young, the franchise QB, and a guy that will be on the team for a long time. We can build our offense around Jay Cutler and just because he's having a bad stretch, doesn't not mean you should be this hard on Cutler. But what do you think?

Overpaid bums of 2009 (Cubs Edition)


DME provided the overpaid bums of 2008 (cubs edition) in the early days of GOI, so let's see how Jim Hendry's team fared this last season. Clearly, the Cubs had a massive profit on their investment in 2008 thanks to a 97 win season. The same cannot be said about the 2009 club. The biggest losers of the season were Kevin Gregg, Aramis Ramirez, Aaron Miles, MIcah Hoffpauir, and the grand champion...Alfonso Soriano with a startling -19.3 million net loss. Despite my criticism of the value system on fangraphs, which I believe overvalues the production of players, the net production was still nearly 19 million dollars below the team payroll. That takes some serious skill on the part of Jim Hendry.

Click on the image to get a sharp view. Maybe one day we'll afford our own domain and be able to post readable data, but that day is not today

Sacks Have No Affect On A QBs Performance: A Statistical Correlation Between S/100 and a QB's Numbers

So I actually did some actual analysis. I've done posts in past showing you loyal viewers what seems to be a strong correlation between how many times a QB gets sacked per every 100 passing attempts and stats like YPA, TD/INT ratio, Completion Percentage, and Passer Rating. However, I actually did a scatter plot to determine what the exact correlation is between S/100 and these stats. First, I decided to study Brett Favre's career. I did this because I thought I would try to leave as many variables out as possible. Brett Favre is a great talent and he's had consistency throughout his entire career. He's also had a great sample size throughout his entire career which makes him, from a quantitative perspective, a great study. So if I wanted to study one individual player to help me with my study, I figured Favre was the best option. So here's data on how S/100 affected Favre's YPA, Comp%, TD/INT ratio, and Passer Rating:



Unfortunately, the correlation is essentially negligible between S/100 and all those stats. The R2 between S/100 and YPA is .002; between S/100 and Comp% is .0008; between S/100 and Passer Rating is .018; and between S/100 and TD/INT ratio is .018. Correlation is between -1 and +1 and is the correlation is 0, that means there is no correlation whatsoever. Very rarely will any number be exactly zero, but the closer the correlation equals zero, the less likely the correlation exists. These numbers are so small, that is laments terms, by looking at Favre's numbers, there is no correlation between S/100 and a QB's performance.

But then I did a quick analysis on Jay Cutler's short career and the numbers looked somewhat different.



Again, there is very little correlation between S/100 and YPA and Passer Rating; however, there is a very strong correlation between S/100 and Comp% and Passer Rating. The R2 for Comp% is very strong for Cutler, being .453 and for TD/INT ratio being .225. There is a strong correlation for Comp% and a slightly strong correlation for TD/INT ratio.

I figured then that maybe studying Favre solely isn't the best idea. Maybe my initial approach was wrong? I want to study the correlation for how S/100 affect ALL QBs, and by just studying one, maybe isn't the best. Maybe one individual QB isn't the best way to determine how often a QB gets sacked affects every other QB. Maybe one QB is better than another when getting sacked. So I decided to look at all QBs last year that had a minimum of 415 passing attempts to see how S/100 affects a QBs performance. This gave me 21 QBs ranging from the great Peyton Manning and Phillips Rivers to the crappy Kerry Collins and Marc Bulger. Here's what I found:



Again, I was disappointed. The R2 between S/100 and YPA is .125; between S/100 and Comp% is .049; between S/100 and Passer Rating is .162; and S/100 and TD/INT ratio is .172. The correlation is slightly stronger when analyzing all QBs as opposed to one, but the correlation is still fairly weak and essentially non-existent.

However, this research is not a total waste of time. Yes, overall, how often a QB gets sacked bears no relevance on how he performs. But that doesn't hold true on every individual QB. Some QBs, like Favre, it does not matter, and even on guys like Aaron Rodgers who gets sacked like crazy. However, on certain guys like Cutler, S/100 does not matter. And sometimes S/100 can show you how crappy certain guys are. Last year, Kerry Collins (min 415 attempts) had the 2nd least S/100, yet put up mediocre to awful numbers. So as a whole, S/100 shows no relevance, but on individual QBs, it may make a difference.

I'm Thankful For The Blackhawks...Oh And Other Stuff



Marian Hossa debuted for the Blackhawks on Wednesday and contributed 2 goals to the Blackhawks' thrashing of the reigning Presidents' cup winners the San Jose Sharks. The Blackhawks scored the first 3 goals shorthanded and followed that with 4 more even strength goals. Despite giving up 2 soft goals at the end of the game, it was still a mighty impressive 7-2 win.

If anyone is in the Hockey spirit, Millenium Park has already opened their ice rink for the winter. Or if that is too far, there are plenty of flooded rinks in the 'burbs that you can get your skate on. I know what i'll be doing over the winter.

Larry David Has A Boner For Derek Jeter



For anyone who does not watch Curb Your Enthusiasm, you are missing out on the funnies show going. And yes, even Kenny Powers himself can't compete with the immortal Jew that is Larry David. Btw Sexy Rexy, how was Larry David not part of our Characters Welcome competition? Dude is a definite final 4 candidate.

This season of Curb may be the funnies one yet. Larry is divorced, living with a black dude, reuniting with the old Seinfeld gang, and more annoying than ever. Basically, he's DME but with a bunch of money. In one episode this season, Larry even gets into an argument about the greatness that is Derek Jeter. Larry defends him to the end, like a loyal New Yorker, even stating that "there's not one person's who's even said that[that Jeter sucks], except this asshole". Apparently Larry David has never been on our blog.

Blackhawks' John Torchetti looks line Forest Gump

Is walking in baseball an old man's skill? (part 2)

As I showed in part one,there was a pretty strong correlation between walking and age last season (R-Squared was .587). I took the idea from part one (is walking an old man's skill?) and took it a step further. According to Fangraphs, there have been 3,636 players in the history of baseball who have accumulated 1000+ PAs. Over the past several weeks, largely because I did not know that there already existed an excel function (pivot table) to do it for me, I organized and sorted every one of those 3,636 players by BB% and took the average PA (and wOBA, for good measure) by walk rate (categorizing each walk rate by 1/10 of a percent). From there, I graphed the data and calculated the correlations. The lowest walk rate in the sample size (0.40%) belonged to a man by the name of George Zettlein (1108 PAs, .209 wOBA). The highest walk rate in the sample size (20.80%) belonged not to Barry Bonds (20.60%), but Ted Williams (9791 PAs, .493 wOBA).

The basis questions to the two data sets was as follows:
1) Do players who walk more get more PAs (in other words, do players who walk more have longer careers)?
2) Are players who walk more generally better at baseball (is BB% correlated to wOBA)?*
*note: wOBA is an OPS-like metric, which is skewed towards OBP rather than SLG and accounts for other factors such as SB%.

Chart #1 (click to enlarge): BB% (x-variable) to PAs (y-variable)

The R-Squared for this data set is .551

Chart #2 (click to enlarge): BB% (x-variable) to wOBA (y-variable)

The R-Squared for this data set is .639 (no surprise).

Other tidbits of data:
-The average wOBA over this sample size was .321
-The average BB% of the 3,636 players was 8.21%
-The average PA/career in the data set was 3596.

Conclusions:
-No surprise here, but the backbone of production is walking. There is a very high (~.64) correlation.
-Walking is an old man's skill. There is a strong correlation between how many PAs a player will get over the course of his career and his career walk rate. I feel that the strength of the correlation is understated by two factors. First, guys like Albert Pujols are still young. In other words, a lot of very good players are still very young and haven't gotten the chance to accumulate 6000+ PAs yet. Secondly, and more importantly, many players with great talent are derailed by injury. There are plenty of players with fantastic peripherals who just cannot stay healthy and thus get fewer PAs across their career, thus distorting the lower ends of the data. When calculating the average PAs for players with better walk rates within the data (13+%), I noticed many players whose careers ended before accumulating even 2500 PAs.

This data should be pretty reliable. The minimum sample sizes necessary to draw statistically relevant inferences from the data is 200 PA for BB% and 500 PA for OPS. wOBA is somewhat related to OPS (though a much better representation of a player's offensive value), thus I make the logical, but mathematically unproven assumption that 1000 PAs would be a good minimum range for the data from which I could draw statistically relevant conclusisons about wOBA (in relation to BB%).

All in all, the answer seems to be yes, walking is an old man's sport.

Football Predictions: Week Twelve

There are three games tomorrow so here we go. My selections are in bold.
Here are my Picks for this week:

Green Bay at Detroit
Oakland at Dallas
N.Y. Giants at Denver
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Carolina at N.Y. Jets
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Seattle at St. Louis
Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Minnesota
Miami at Buffalo
Washington at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston
Jacksonville at San Francisco
Kansas City at San Diego
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
New England at New Orleans

Who Do You Blame For The Bears Problems?

The McCaskey Family
I was having a discussion about this with my dad. He blames the McCaskey family, the owners of the Bears. He blames their cheapness and lack of knowledge for the problems of this team. His argument is that the owners are the ones who determine the front office. They are the ones who hired Ted Thompson the Bears CEO/President and Jerry Angelo as GM. Thompson was an accountant that worked for the organization that the McCaskey's promoted to run the organization. They also were the ones who hired Jerry Angelo. Angelo was a former football player who had little to no experience being a general manager, but who was also within the organization and again, also cheap. He points to guys like Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder who "would never let this happen". Obviously Jones and Snyder have HUGE problems, but I think it's the idea more than the actual example that you should focus on. He also points to their cheapness for hiring guys like Ron Turner and the scouting department.

However, I don't totally but this argument completely. Certainly, there is a problem with all sports that hire former players to run their organization. Teams are more likely to hire a Kenny Williams than a Theo Epstein because of the "experience". Obviously, it's frustrating when a team does this, but I don't know that I'd put the blame on them. Next, I'm not 100% convinced that it's because of the McCaskey's cheapness that we have a poor coaching staff and scouting department. You can be cheap and still have a functional team- as long as you have smart people around you. But are we going to completely take the blame off the people you hire? Maybe hiring Angelo and Smith and Turner was dumb, but are they completely off the hook? If you're bad at your job, then you should be held responsible for your poor performance- and not pass the blame off.

Jerry Angelo

The guy gave huge contracts to an injury prone and on the decline Brian Urlacher and Tommie Harris. The guys went out and got a Orlando Pace in order to "improve" the offensive line. And in the draft, the guy ultimately making the decisions on who to draft is the GM. And since Angelo has been here, we have made some awful awful AWFUL draft choices. You can make the argument that a lot of the people on the field are because of the GM.

However, I believe a lot of the players Angelo gets is not his decision. Bringing in guys like Adam Archelta and Orlando Pace were mainly because Lovie Smith knew them during his stint in St. Louis. It seems to me that Lovie has his system and he tells the GM who to go out and get for his specific system. Sure the GM is the official guy who goes and signs players, but with Angelo, it seems that Lovie has this job more than the guy who has the title. And Aneglo did go out and get Jay Cutler, who is just amazing.

Lovie Smith
You can read the paragraph above as well as a previous post I wrote, chronically my hate of Lovie Smith.

To play devil's advocate, you can say that Smith does have a good system and proven in 2006, but the players on the field are just god awful. And the players on the field are the result of the GM.

The Players Themselves/ Jay Cutler
1) There are arguments of why Cutler is the reason for why this team is bad, but those arguments are flat out wrong. 2) If we're going to hold the coaching staff responsible, then we should hold the players responsible for going out on the field and being and at their job as well

Ron Artest still crazy

ron

Stupid DME thinks Braun can't run the bases

In the Chase Utley comments section, DME proclaimed that Ryan Braun is a horrible baserunner ranking 9th on his own team last season. He points to some stat called EQBRR on BP, which seems reasonable after checking it over, though i still dont know how it is calculated exactly. The baseball analysts did a preview of Bill James Baseball Abstract for 2010

Before listing the best and worst baserunners by position, James compares Chone "Gone" Figgins (23-for-43 going from first-to-third on a single and 26-for-31 second-to-home on a single) with Prince Fielder (1-for-45 first-to-third on a single) and David Ortiz (2-for-16 second-to-home on a single), Emilio Bonafacio (10-for-10 first-to-home on a double) with Mike Lowell (0-for-10), and Denard Span (moved up a base 31 times on a WP, PB, Balk, SF, or Defensive Indifference) with Geoff Blum (never advanced a base on any of those plays).


BEST


WORST
C Kurt Suzuki +15
C Yadier Molina -26
1B Carlos Pena +9
1B Adrian Gonzalez -29
2B Chase Utley +50
2B Robinson Cano -23
3B Chone Figgins +35
3B Mike Lowell -27
SS Jason Bartlett +30
SS Yuniesky Betancourt -28
LF Ryan Braun +35
LF Juan Rivera -40
CF Michael Bourn +55
CF Kosuke Fukudome -11
RF Ichiro Suzuki +32
RF Gabe Kapler -19
Most people will tell you that we should have Carl Crawford in left field ahead of Ryan Braun, and people will tell you that Yadier Molina actually runs well for a catcher, or at least for a Molina. We don't base this on reputation. Carl Crawford was 8-for-27 going first-to-third on a single. Ryan Braun was 15-for-41, which is better. Crawford was 4-for-9 scoring from first on a double. Braun was 7-for-9. Crawford moved up 24 bases on Wild Pitches, Passed Balls, Balks, Sacrifice Flies and Defensive Indifference. Braun moved up 26 times. Crawford grounded into 7 double plays in 136 DP situations; Braun grounded into 7 in 172 situations. Braun was thrown out 5 times on the bases. Crawford was thrown out 10. Crawford is a very good baserunner—the second-best baserunner among major league left fielders in 2009, including his base stealing—but Braun was better. And Yadi Molina grounded into 27 frigging double plays, which is a record even for a Molina brother.

As James points out, "the difference between the best baserunner in the majors (Michael Bourn) and the worst (Juan Rivera) was 95 bases, or about 24 runs" [editor's note: equal to about 2 1/2 wins].

Who Is The Best AFC QB?

Based upon the best statistic ever (hmm, sarcasism don't translate well on a blog) sacks per 100 passing attempts, I've decided to do a brief analysis of the great AFC QBs preemptively for my new poll.

S/100
Big Ben: 8.72
Philip Rivers: 6.23
Matt Schaub: 5.21
Tom Brady: 3.56
Peyton Manning: 2.06

YPA
Big Ben: 8.33
Peyton Manning: 8.17
Philip Rivers: 8.17
Matt Schaub: 8.10
Tom Brady: 7.76

Completion Percentage
Peyton Manning: 69.8
Big Ben: 68.9
Matt Schaub: 67.1
Tom Brady: 66.4
Philip Rivers: 63.2

Passer Rating:
Peyton Manning: 102.7
Tom Brady: 100.4
Matt Schaub: 98.9
Philip Rivers: 98.7
Big Ben: 98.6

TD/INT ratio:
Tom Brady: 3.33
Petyton Manning: 2.33
Philip Rivers: 2.83
Matt Schaub: 2.11
Big Ben: 1.70

So who is the best AFC QB? I don't think this one is clear. Peyton clearly takes advantage of his superior O-line but does the increase in sacks make guys like Rivers and Roethlisberger better than Manning? I don't know. But please, when you vote, take sacks and O-line into account.

How Do Sacks Affect a QBs Performance?

Here's some data I did from a recent post of how Matt Cassel, Jay Cutler, and Kyle Orton have performed on new team with a new offensive line. I talked about the reason for the poor/better performance of these players is because of the new offensive line these players had. Now I would love to to a full on regression analysis/ correlation chart to prove truly how QB performance is based upon the O-line. Unfortunately, I have neither the time nor the knowhow. However, I thought I'd do some more analysis of players that have switched teams to see if my data still holds a little bit of water. I decided to do analysis on Brett Favre (both this year and last year), Chad Pennington (two years ago he was on the Jets and last year he was on the Dolphins), and Aaron Rodgers (Yes, he's been a Packer both years but is O-line is drastically different this year/ my outlier to again to show how awesome Rodgers is this year).
NOTE: S/100 = how many times the QB has been sacked per every 100 passing attempts and the (+/-) equals how often or how little the QB was sacked per every 100 attempts compared to the previous year. i.e. +2.00 S/100 means that that QB was sacked 2 more times this year than he was in the previous year per 100 passing attempts.

So here's what I did earlier:

Cassel (2009/2008)(+2.66 S/100)
YPA: -1.2
Completion Percentage: -8.4
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: +.09

Cutler (2009/ 2008)(+1.79 S/100)
YPA: -0.7
Completion Percentage: -0.6
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: -0.56

Orton (2009/2008)(-1.41 S/100)
YPA: +0.6
Completion Percentage: +3.5
Passer Rating: +8.2
TD/INT ratio: +0.7

And some my new data:

Brett Favre (2008/2007) (+2.94 S/100)
YPA: -1.1
Completion Percentage: -0.8
Passer Rating: -14.7
TD/INT ratio: -0.87

Brett Favre (2009/2008) (-1.03 S/100)
YPA: +1.3
Completion Percentage: +4.0
Passer Rating: +31.1
TD/INT ratio: +6.0

Chad Pennington (2008/2006) (-1.14 S/100)
Pennington only had 260 passing attempts in 2007. He had 450+ in '06
YPA: +0.8
Completion Percentage: +2.9
Passer Rating: +14.8
TD/INT ratio: +1.65

Aaron Rodgers (2009/2008) (+6.27 S/100)
YPA: +0.7
Completion Percentage: +1.2
Passer Rating: +8.8
TD/INT ratio: +1.65

Analysis:
Take out Aaron Rodgers for a moment and what do you consistently notice? When a QB moves to a new team a thus gets sacked more, his major stats go down. When he moves to a new team and he gets sacked less, his major stats go up (the exception being Matt Cassel and his TD/INT ratio). I think this should come as no big surprise. When a QB is getting sacked more, that means the O-line is allowing more defenders to break penetration and getting to the QB more. And when the defense is getting to the QB more often, it makes the QBs job tougher and makes it harder for the QB to complete throws. This is a simple aspect of the game. Defenses tend to be better when they can get to the QB and offenses tend to be better when the O-line has great pass protection. This again just reinforces the extreme importance of an offensive line and how overrated people make out the QB position to be.

Now we move to Aaron Rodgers. He's not only one of the best QBs in the league right now, he's doing it with an AWFUL O-line. I mean they've been dreadful. Yes, they're injured, but awful nonetheless. Yes, despite this and in the face if statistical data, Rodgers puts up great numbers. Look at his S/100 spike. Out of the seven players, no spike has gone above or below 3.00. Yes, Rodgers S/100 has taken a huge hit this year; he's getting sacked over 12 times per every 100 passing attempt and is getting sacked over six times more per every 100 passing attempt than he was last year. But he's STILL improved. I don't think people realize what an amazing feat this is! (as shown by my crude poll ranking NFC QBs, I was the only one to vote for Rodgers).

So when you go talking trash about your QB, please take a look at his O-line before you judge.

GOI Football Prediction Results: Week Eleven

Pigskin Pick 'Em

1) Cubsfan4evr
Last Week: 14 out of 16-88%
Overall: 109 out of 159-69%

2) The 'Bright' One
Last Week: 10 out of 16-63%
Overall: 101 out of 159-64%

3) Sexy Rexy
Last Week: 5 out of 16-31%
Overall: 96 out of 159-60%

Fantasy Football League
1) Cubsfan4evr (6-5)-1109 pts
2) The 'Bright' One (6-5)-1033 pts
3) Sexy Rexy (5-6)-1017 pts
4) DME (4-7)-923 pts

Greg Oden gets posterized twice



Quick Chase Utley Rant

Despite the fact that the BBWA got it right with Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Joe Mauer and technically Albert Pujols, they are still a bunch of morons. Somehow, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Andre Ethier and Pablo Sandoval all ended up with more MVP votes than Chase Utley. At 7.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Chase Utley was the second most valuable hitter in the NL (behind Pujols, at 8.4 WAR) and the seventh most valuable player overall. A strong balance between fantastic defense at 2B and quality hitting at the plate makes Chase Utley one of the most valuable assets in baseball (based on his production and salary, Fangraphs ranked Utley as a top ten asset earlier this year). Utley does many things very well. He can hit (28+ HRs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, .390 career wOBA), field (career +15.5 UZR/150 at 2B), and run the bases (23 SB last season, 0 CS). He tied Reggie Jackson's World Series homerun record this year. And, as evidenced below, he can even fly.



But Chase Utley gets no love.

At first glance, Pujols appears to deserve the MVP. His monstrous bat was second to none (+16 Runs Above Replacement (RAR) better than the second best hitter last year, Joe Mauer, the AL MVP) and his defense is solid (it has averaged just under +5 RAR per season since 2002). However, Albert Pujols plays first base. Yes, WAR accomodates this with a -12.4 Positional Adjustment to Pujols' cumulative RAR, but there is something more to be said when the WARs are close and the positions played by two players require significantly different levels of skill.

"But DME," you say, "Pujols has a +8.4 WAR and Utley has a +7.6 WAR. That's a chunky +8 RAR difference." True, in theory, but WAR does not encapsulate every aspect of a player's value (and no, I'm not talking about Grindiness Per Nine Inning (G/9)). WAR does not encapsulate baserunning skills. Because WAR is derivative of wOBA, which already accounts for SB%, the additional "Baserunning RAR" (BRAR) is calculated by (EQBRR-EQSBR). According to Baseball Prospectus, Chase Utley was the second best baserunner in the majors last season (behind Michael Bourne) and his BRAR was +5.32. Albert Pujols was not even a top 500 baserunner and his BRAR was -0.62.

This makes the difference between Utley and Pujols' end of season cumulative RAR's within two runs of each other. Such a difference is pretty marginal. Factor in Pujols' +13 PA's and the fact that Chase Utley's team made it to the World Series (where Utley raked), and I would have to tip my hat in favor of Chase Utley, who plays in a much tougher division, for the NL MVP award. By no means is it a travesty that Pujols got the honor. It is a travesty, however, that Utley did not even finish top 5 in NL MVP voting.

This only goes to show that even when the BBWA gets it right, they still manage to get it wrong.
________

Editor's Note: I am aware that BBWA votes are due prior to the playoffs. I am just using his performance as addition rationale as to why I would prefer him over Pujols for the NL MVP. If Utley didn't hit .193/.290/.325 (.217 BABIP) in Sept./Oct., it is very possible that Utley would have had a more valuable 2009 than Pujols.

Nobody Likes Jimmy Clausen


ESPN.com is reporting that a fan punched Jimmy Clausen outside of a restaurant this morning and Clausen now as a swollen eye. Good.

Sacks Per 100 Pass Attempts

Unlike the funny Grindiness Per Nine Inning (G/9), I have started using a real statistic. In my extremely recent post analyzing QB that have recently gone to new teams, I started using sacks per 100 pass attempts (S/100) to help me analyze how offensive lines affect QBs on different. Now I admit this is nothing groundbreaking or earth shattering by any stretch of the imagination, but I still feel like this is a useful stat, especially when analyzing QBs who go to different teams. FootballOutsiders does something similar like this when they analyze offensive lines, but I'm applying this to individual QBs. Also, if a stat like this already exists, please tell me so I can delete this post. Thank You.

How Are Cutler, Orton, and Cassel Doing On Their New Teams?

I was watching the video TBO posted where Cutler says "you know" more times than Joe Morgan says something dumb. It got me thinking, the whole reason the Bears got Jay Cutler was because Josh McDaniels was actively seeking to get Matt Cassel in a trade. The Broncos, Chiefs, and Redskins among others also were actively seeking to get Cassel. The Chiefs did end up getting Cassel, but 10 games into the regular season you think to yourself, was it really worth it? Do teams really want Cassel?

Last year, Cassel Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to as well as a great O-line. So you knew his numbers were skewed a bit. Even still, Cassel was never that efficient ranking 17th in DYAR and 12th in DVOA. Those who liked him because of his fantasy football production also were misled the same way we were misled my liking Tyler Thigpen- Cassel was able to run the ball pretty well (again, helped by the Pats O-line). Cassel was 10th in passer rating, 10th in YPG, and 15th in YPA with a 1.91 TD/INT ratio. So how's Cassel doing this year?

To start off with, the Chiefs have an awful O-line ranking 27th in pass blocking (and as any Bears fan can tell you now, it's hard as hell for a QB to throw the ball with an awful line) and Dwayne Bowe and um, uh, whoever the Chiefs #2 receiver was before Chambers arrived are much much much worse than Moss and Welker. However, Cassel still took a 11.5 hit in passer rating, 1.2 YPA hit, and is completing 8.4% less passes. Yet despite this, his TD/INT ratio has gone up .09 points.

Normally, I would think that maybe I would start talking about how shitty Cassel is, but I think looking at Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler from this year to last year is a great example of just how important a line and receiving corps can be.

Jay Cutler went for playing for a team that ranked 4th in pass blocking to a team that now ranks 15th (and I think this is an example where stats can lie b/c I feel Cutler being able to scramble and throws the ball before he gets sacked screws this number because no way in hell the Bears are only middle of the pack in pass blocking). Anyway, Cutler is going from a great line to a shitty one. He's going from a 1.39 TD/INT ratio to a .833 ratio. He took a .56 hit in TD/INT ratio, 11.5 hit in passer rating, a .70 hit in YPA (and to put this into perspective, he has a 7.3, 7.5, and 7.3 YPA in Denver. He's down to 6.6 this year), but only a slight hit in completion percentage. .

Compare this now to Kyle Orton who went from a shitty situation to a better one. Last year the Bears ranked 11th in pass blocking and this year the Broncos rank 7th (again, a slight situation where numbers lie because football outsiders rank pass blocking by sacks and Orton also does a fine job alluding sacks). Trust me, I've actually watched football, Orton is in a much better situation and this shows in his numbers. He has increased his passer rating 8.2 points, his YPA by 0.6, is now completing 3.5% more passes, and has increased his TD/INT ratio by 0.7 percent.

Last year Cutler was sacked only 20 times. This year, he's already been sacked 20. Last year Cutler got sacked 1.79 times for every 100 times he's thrown the ball. This year, he's getting sacked a whooping 5.26 times every times per every 100 pass attempt. Compare this to Orton. Last year Orton was sacked 27 times. This year he's only gotten sacked 14. Orton got sacked 5.81 times per every 100 attempts. This year he's getting sacked 4.4 times per every 100 attempts.

I think this Orton/Cutler trade just goes to show you how important a line can be. So with this in mind, let's look to see how sacks per every 100 attempt has affected each players numbers.

Cassel (+2.66 sacks per 100 attempts)
YPA: -1.2
Completion Percentage: -8.4
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: +.09

Cutler (+1.79 sacks per game)
YPA: -0.7
Completion Percentage: -0.6
Passer Rating: -11.5
TD/INT ratio: -0.56

Orton (-1.41 sacks per 100 attempts)
YPA: +0.6
Completion Percentage: +3.5
Passer Rating: +8.2
TD/INT ratio: +0.7

Statistically speaking, these numbers are pretty close to each other. The sacks per 100 attempts are vastly different, yet the numbers below seem pretty darn close. The most discernible effect S/100 (sacks per 100 pass attempts) seems to have is on YPA. The more a QB has gotten sacked, the more his YPA is hurt.

Obviously, analyzing three players over 1.5 seasons is absolutely not enough to determine 100% conclusive data. But it certainly just reinforces the point that offensive lines are so important to a team.

So to answer my original question, how are the Chiefs liking this Matt Cassel trade now? Maybe if they put a good team around him Cassel would succeed. And to the point that McDaniels was actively trying to trade for Cassel? He should have kept his big mouth shut because his O-line is good enough for any QB whether it be Cassel or Cutler or Orton. However, as a Bears fan, I'm happy as hell McDaniels is dumb.

You Know, Cutler May Have Brain Damage, You Know

Joe Mauer Wins MVP Unanimously, Minus 1 Moron

Mauer led the American League in average, on-base, and slugging - the true triple crown while playing catcher. Some moron voted for Miguel Cabrera, cause boozing and beating your wife before the most important game of the season really spikes your grindiness per nine (g/9)

Blackhawks Are Really Really Good At Hockey

For those of you still suffering though the NBA and NFL season, how about you check out the only good team in the city. Yup, it's the Blackhawks again. They are on their annual circus trip, the same one which basically destroys the Bulls every year, and they have won 7 games in a row. They just destroyed all of Canada (Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver) and are currently ranked as the top team in the NHL based on ESPN.com's power ranking. All this despite not having their best player, Marion Hossa, though he will make his Hawks debut on Wednesday. Cristobal Huet is playing like a top 5 goalie and all is good in Hawk land.

Also, within the next week, the Blackhawks are expected to sign Kane and Toews to identical 6yr/36mil deals, while Duncan Keith is expected to get a 13yr/65mil deal.

Surprisingly Not The First Time Seeing Hester's Ass


A video replay of an incomplete pass on the final Bears drive showed a "wardrobe malfunction" of Devin Hester's ass to all of America's youth. Considering I have spent 100 hours studying for my anatomy exam the past 3 weeks, I am quite impressed with Mr. Hester's ischial tuberosity. I thought about putting the video on the blog myself, but was too depressed from watching the Bears lose another one. But since deadspin has the pics and video up in the middle of the night, I guess I'll just rip them off for the first time ever.

Randy's Johnson



Just in case you missed this little detail that was buried in my Marlins rant earlier today, the city of Seattle recently approved building a strip club next door to Safe Co. Field. Perhaps it's the city's great "fuck you" to the biggest prudes in baseball for continuously ripping the taxpayers off. They should call it The Foul Pole (or Randy's Johnson) for good measure. Got a funny strip club name that isn't "Big Unit?" Leave it in the comments.

People Search Google For The Strangest Things

I typed "why" into Google and the strangest "fill in your search" text came up...


"What are" will also give you some interesting results...

The Marlins are REALLY cheap


When your highest base salary for a player is $5.5 million for a season, you know that your team is not exactly spending money. No one ever claimed the Marlin's were rolling in the dough, but if you think the Marlins' 2009 payroll of $36.8 million is ridiculously miniscule, look back a few years. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Marlins 2006 base payroll was under $15 million. FIFTEEN MILLION. Ryan Howard has only been in league for four years and is already making more money than the entire team spent that year. Hell, Tim Lincecum might get paid more than $15 million next season and he hasn't even thrown 600 major league innings (a team that plays 162 games without any of its games going in to extra innings will have to pitch 1458 innings).

The 2006 Florida Marlins' revenue stream took in $122 million. Where is that money going and why is Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria forcing the state to subsidize the Marlin's new stadium?? I'm shocked that the citizens of Florida are not more outraged that the city is funding approximately 75% of the $645 million new stadium in Miami. If the team wants to cut costs and increase profits by moving the team to a better location, they should do it on their own dime; it's called a business investment.

The New York Times article (the last link above) frames the issue particularly well:
The economic benefits could also prove illusory, analysts say, because spending at new stadiums often replaces money spent at old ones or comes at the expense of spending at theaters, restaurants and other entertainment sites.

Eager to get the project rolling, Miami-Dade issued its bonds over the summer, when the municipal bond market was in flux. The county paid nearly a full percentage point more in interest to issue its bonds than if it had waited a few months. The Marlins agreed to buy the last $7 million of bonds that the county was unable to sell to the market.

As the recession has revealed, some conservative forecasts elsewhere proved too optimistic. In 1996, officials in Hamilton County, Ohio, expected their local sales tax revenue to grow 3 percent a year when they agreed to add a half-penny to pay for stadiums for the Cincinnati Reds and the Bengals. Instead, it has since grown 1.6 percent per year on average and fallen nearly 10 percent this year, forcing lawmakers to consider cutting the schools budget.

“Cincinnati is a smaller market, but it underscores that all these projects have risks, and Miami has to understand in the depths of this recession it may take longer to recover than people think,” said Mark Rosentraub, the author of “Major League Losers,” which examined stadium deals nationwide. Rosentraub called Miami’s agreement “reckless.”
And yet, the Democrats of this country want more government. Go figure.

This gallimaufry isn't just happening on the Eastern Seaboard. The Mariners pigeon-holed Seattle into building them a new stadium a decade ago and are now forcing the taxpayers to pay for essential repairs to the stadium. I guess the city is going to get the last laugh, however, as they recently approved building a strip club next door. Maybe they'll call it The Foul Pole (or Randy's Johnson).

(Check here to read the details of the Mariners contract with the city as cited in an except from King County v. Taxpayers of King County)

Fastest Fastballs

As Fangraphs previously noted, strikeouts and velocity are correlated. Who packed the heat in 2009? Even Matt Lindstrom's K/9 improved last season and Bill James expects it to go up even more in 2010. So who packed the best heat in 2009?

Starting Pichers (min. 100 IP):

Excluding the 3 pitchers at the very bottom of the list, who combined to be 120 years old (Jamie Moyer, Livan Hernandez and Tim Wakefield), no pitcher who logged 100+ IP in 2009 had a fastball slower than 85 MPH. And people wonder why I refuse to call Rich Harden's "change up" (85.5 MPH) a "change up." Could once uber prospect Homer Bailey be a sleeper in 2009? He did post a 2.08 ERA/3.07 FIP with 42 Ks and 4 Ws over his last 43.1 IP.


Relievers (min. 30 IP)


With a fastball that averages near 100 MPH, its no wonder Zoom-Zoom walked the crap out of batters in 2009 (6.39 BB/9). Maybe he needs to Randy Johnson a few hitters. Thorton and MacDougal each seemingly have one pitch. Too bad MacDougal has absolutely no command of his only pitch.

Oh, and because google images is our number one referral, enjoy this hilarious picture I found of Barack Obama:

Fantastic Resource For Minor League Players

I've just recently stumbled across a fantastic website, Minor League Splits. Not only does it contain traditional numbers for minor leaguers around baseball, but it also converts their minor league numbers into expected major league equivalent lines. For example, Cubs SS prospect Starlin Castro's .292/.340/.375 AA batting line in 2009 would translate into a .245/.282/.300 batting line in the majors (click the "mle" line to convert). Yet another reason to part with Castro for anything of value...

Interesting stuff.

Getting "In Shape" Is Overrated

I recall a post back in the day where DME disproved the notion that baseball players who show up to spring training either adding muscle, losing weight, getting their corneas rearranged, or adding "protein shakes" to their veins somehow were suppose to make a player better. Yet despite all their hard work, their wOBAs remain the same no matter what cause they are who we thought they were. Unfortunately I cant find a link to this post, but believe me it exists.

The same notion has been attempted in other sports, with identical outcomes.



A big story over the summer was that Lendale White, that fat fatty who won a national championship at USC, started ahead of Reggie Bush, and scored 15 rushing touchdowns last season, finally got in shape by simply cutting out tequila(Fast Food) from his diet. And how has White's new and improved physique fared this season you may ask? Well he's averaging 6.5 carries a game for about 21 yards, oh and the goal-line running back only has 1 TD run. Going forward this is bad news for the Titans and awesome news for tequila. Can I buy stock in tequila? It's a no lose situation here.



Al Jefferson, the young star for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who was the main guy in the Kevin Garnett trade, lost 30 pounds over the summer by going on the "Jared Diet". Wow that is great news and partly the reason I took Jefferson as my first round pick in fantasy basketball. So let's see what the numbers tell us. FG% 40 points below career average. 5 less rebounds a game from previous 3 years and points are down 7 per game from the past 2 season. Not exactly first round material.

Can The Blackhawks Win It All With Cristobol Huet?

Now I fully admit that I know absolutely nothing about the NHL or hockey. My analysis may be completely wrong and feel free to correct me, but here we go.

A lot of analysts picked the Blackhawks to win the Stanley Cup this year (a lot also picked the Chicago Bears and that worked out well for them). However, as any sports fan or three year old can tell you, you can't win at all without defense. (While this is not true, your defense can't be shitty either). The Blackhawks let go of their aging goalie Nikolai Khabibulin so they can go with the much younger and cheaper Huet. But from what I've heard (and I remember he gave up like five goals in a playoff game last year or something) Huet wasn't good. Which made me wonder, why would people pick the Blackhawks to win at all if they have a goalie that isn't good? So I did my best to research Cristobol Huet to see if he really is good.

To my surprise, when I went to the ESPN NHL stat page, Huet was 5th overall among all goalies in goals against average. However, Huet is only 27th in save percentage and 30th in save percentage in shoot outs. However, statistically speaking, the point differential between Huet and the leaders in save percentage are seemingly very minimal. However, this "minimal" difference seems to show up because Huet is t-17th overall in total goals allowed. So can you really go far in the playoffs if your goalie is allowing all these goals? Obviously, if you're offense is good enough then you can overcome your defensive proficiencies, but not many teams seemingly can do that.

However, there is a glimmer of hope. Chris Osgood, a Stanley Cup winner is not that good either. Last year, Osgood's save percentage in 26 games was really bad and Detroit beat the Blackhawks in the playoffs. Osgood has a career save percentage along the lines that Huet has now and because Detroit is so good, Osgood has multiple championships.

So can the Blackhawks win with Cristobol Huet? Of course it's possible. But is something you should realistically expect? I would say no.

Baseball Was Affected By The Economy

I know we all berated Cubsfan when he made the statement baseball wasn't affected by the economy because attendance was up this year. Well, to add insult to well I guess more insults, Beg Selig recently announced that some teams did lose money this past season.

The Nets Are So Bad That They Need Their Opponent To Shoot Baskets For Them

In the recent Nets v Knicks game, Nate Robinson accidentally shoots the ball in the wrong basket.

Bringing the debate out of the comments

From Sabernomics:
Here are the year-to-year correlations for pitchers throwing back-to-back 100+ innings seasons from 1980–2006.
Metric  Correlation
Strikeout Rate 0.79
Walk Rate 0.64
WHIP 0.42
ERA 0.37

All measures are correlated, but the correlation is lower for the metrics that include fielder contributions. The season-to-season correlation between individuals pitchers’ WHIP and ERA are quite similar. Also, both metrics vary similarly: the average coefficient of variation (mean/standard deviation) for the pitchers in the sample is 2.46 for WHIP and 1.99 for ERA.

Here is a graph of ERA and WHIP by age for Roger Clemens on that using connected scatter plots and quadratic fit curves.


WHIP and ERA

The metrics tend to move in concert (correlation = 0.9), and the small difference in quadratic fit seems to be explained by a few more-extreme deviations in WHIP.

Thus, if WHIP has any advantage over ERA, it is slight...

Yup.

ESPN & The Simpsons

ESPN has an old, but funny list of Simpsons-sports moments. My favorite:
88. The Benefits of International Waters: While on Mr. Burns' yacht in international waters, Homer proves to Bart that you can do anything out here. "See that ship over there? They're re-broadcasting Major League Baseball with implied oral consent, not express written consent -- or so the legend goes."

Avila v. Citrus Community College Dist., 38 Cal. 4th 148 (2006)

Below is a copy of the text from Avila v. Citrus Community College Dist., 38 Cal. 4th 148 (2006). I've bold the fun part, but it's a good read.

___________


[***302]
[**385] WERDEGAR, J.—During an intercollegiate baseball game at a community college, one of the home team's batters is hit by a pitch. In the next half-inning, the home team's pitcher allegedly retaliates with an inside pitch and hits a visiting batter in the head. The visiting batter is injured, he sues, and the courts must umpire the dispute.

We are asked to make calls on two questions: (1) Does Government Code section 831.7, which immunizes public entities from liability for injuries sustained during “hazardous recreational activities,” bar recovery against the home community college district, and (2) if not, does the community college district owe any duty to visiting players that might support liability? We conclude that section 831.7 does not extend to injuries sustained during supervised school sports, but that on the facts alleged the host school breached no duty of care to the injured batter. We reverse the judgment of the Court of Appeal.

Factual and Procedural Background 1

FOOTNOTES

1 Because this appeal is from the sustaining of a demurrer, we take the facts recited in Avila's complaint as true. (Blank v. Kirwan (1985) 39 Cal.3d 311, 318 [216 Cal. Rptr. 718, 703 P.2d 58].)


Jose Luis Avila, a Rio Hondo Community College (Rio Hondo) student, played baseball for the Rio Hondo Roadrunners. On January 5, 2001, Rio Hondo was playing a preseason road game against the Citrus Community College Owls (Citrus College). During the game, a Roadrunners pitcher hit a Citrus College batter with a pitch; when Avila came to bat in the top of the next inning, the Citrus College pitcher hit him in [**386] the head with a pitch, cracking his batting helmet. Avila alleges the pitch was an intentional “beanball” thrown in retaliation for the previous hit batter or, at a minimum, was thrown negligently. [*153]

Avila staggered, felt dizzy, and was in pain. The Rio Hondo manager told him to go to first base. Avila did so, and when he complained to the Rio Hondo first base coach, he was told to stay in the game. At second base, he still felt pain, numbness, and dizziness. A Citrus College player yelled to the Rio Hondo dugout that the Roadrunners needed a pinch runner. Avila walked off the field and went to the Rio Hondo bench. No one tended to his injuries. As a result, Avila suffered unspecified serious personal injuries.

Avila sued both schools, his manager, the helmet manufacturer, and various other entities and organizations. Only the claims against the Citrus Community College District (the District) are before us. Avila alleged that the District was negligent in failing to summon or provide medical care for him when he was obviously in need of it, failing to supervise and control the Citrus College pitcher, failing to provide umpires or other supervisory personnel to control the game and prevent retaliatory or reckless pitching, and failing to provide adequate equipment to safeguard him from serious head injury. Avila also alleged that the District acted negligently by failing to take reasonable steps to train and supervise its managers, trainers, employees, and agents in providing medical care to injured players and by conducting an illegal preseason game in violation of community college baseball rules designed to protect participants such as Avila.

The District demurred, contending it was protected by Government Code section 831.7, subdivision (a), 2 a public entity tort [***303] immunity statute. The District also contended that under Ochoa v. California State University (1999) 72 Cal.App.4th 1300 [85 Cal. Rptr. 2d 768] (Ochoa), it owed no duty of care to Avila. The trial court sustained the demurrer and dismissed the action against the District.

FOOTNOTES

2 All subsequent unlabeled statutory references are to the Government Code.


A divided Court of Appeal reversed. Relying on Acosta v. Los Angeles Unified School Dist. (1995) 31 Cal.App.4th 471 [37 Cal. Rptr. 2d 171] (Acosta) and Iverson v. Muroc Unified School Dist. (1995) 32 Cal.App.4th 218 [38 Cal. Rptr. 2d 35] (Iverson), the majority concluded that section 831.7 does not extend immunity to claims predicated on the negligent supervision of public school athletes and that the District owed a duty of supervision to Avila. The dissent argued that Acosta and Iverson create a limited exception only for secondary school students and that section 831.7 immunity applied.

We granted the District's petition for review to resolve an apparent split in the Courts of Appeal concerning the scope of section 831.7 immunity and to address the extent of a college's duty in these circumstances. [*154]

Discussion

I. Section 831.7 Immunity

CA(1)(1) As always, we begin our analysis of a statute's meaning with its text. (Elsner v. Uveges (2005) 34 Cal.4th 915, 927 [22 Cal. Rptr. 3d 530, 102 P.3d 915].) Section 831.7 provides: HN1Go to the description of this Headnote.“Neither a public entity nor a public employee is liable to any person who participates in a hazardous recreational activity … for any damage or injury to property or persons arising out of that hazardous recreational activity.” (Id., subd. (a).) In turn, HN2Go to the description of this Headnote.a “hazardous recreational activity” is defined as “a recreational activity conducted on property of a public entity which creates a substantial (as distinguished from a minor, trivial, or insignificant) risk of injury to a participant or a spectator.” (Id., subd. (b).) “Hazardous recreational activity” is further defined by a nonexclusive list of activities that qualify, including such activities as diving, skiing, hang gliding, rock climbing, and body contact sports. (Ibid.)

The text is ambiguous. The statute does not specifically define “recreational activity,” but instead includes a definition for “hazardous recreational activity.” That definition defines and illustrates what is meant by the term “hazardous,” while merely reusing the [**387] phrase “recreational activity.” (� 831.7, subd. (b).) The term “recreational,” however, is susceptible to multiple interpretations. For example, “recreation” may be defined as “Refreshment of one's mind or body after work through some activity that amuses or stimulates; play.” (American Heritage Dict. (2d college ed. 1982) p. 1035, italics added.) Under this definition, not only the nature of the activity but the context matters. Pitching in an adult amateur softball game would qualify as recreational; pitching for the Oakland Athletics or San Francisco Giants professional baseball teams would not. What of playing in a high school or intercollegiate baseball game, which falls somewhere between these extremes? Does it matter if one is a scholarship athlete, and thus receiving some form of reward for one's continued performance, or if one's participation in a sporting activity is compulsory because of state laws governing physical education instruction? The text alone cannot answer these questions.

This ambiguity is reflected in the disparate conclusions the Courts of Appeal have reached when applying the statutory language to negligence claims against schools and universities. For example, in Acosta, supra, 31 Cal.App.4th 471, a high school gymnast was practicing [***304] at his high school during the off-season under the supervision of an assistant gymnastics coach. He fell during a difficult maneuver, landed on his neck, and was rendered a [*155] quadriplegic. The Court of Appeal ruled that section 831.7 did not immunize the school district from liability for negligent supervision. While the court acknowledged that gymnastics was a hazardous activity, it concluded that school districts have a well-established duty to provide reasonable supervision of school-sponsored extracurricular sports programs. (Acosta, at pp. 477–478 [citing Leger v. Stockton Unified School Dist. (1988) 202 Cal. App. 3d 1448, 1459 [249 Cal. Rptr. 688], and numerous additional out-of-state authorities].) The court found no indication the Legislature, when it adopted section 831.7, had intended to abrogate that duty. In order to resolve the conflict between the language of section 831.7 and the line of cases establishing a duty of supervision, the Acosta court reasoned that the term “recreational” should be interpreted to exclude supervised school-sponsored extracurricular athletics. (Acosta, at pp. 476, 478.)

In Iverson, supra, 32 Cal.App.4th 218, an eighth-grade student was injured by a hard tackle during a physical education class soccer game. Here again, the court rejected section 831.7 immunity. Though distinguishing Acosta as involving extracurricular activities, Iverson agreed with much of its reasoning. It found in the legislative history of the statute no indication the Legislature intended to immunize schools from liability for injuries to students participating in school sports. While recognizing that soccer might be hazardous, Iverson agreed with Acosta that school sports activities could fairly be excluded from the definition of “recreational.” Because Iverson was not injured during participation in a hazardous “recreational” activity, section 831.7 had no application. (Iverson, at pp. 225–227.)

In contrast, in Ochoa, supra, 72 Cal.App.4th 1300, a California State University, Sacramento (Sacramento State) student was injured in an intramural soccer game. Escalating roughness culminated in one player throwing a punch, catching plaintiff Ochoa in the jaw. Ochoa sued Sacramento State for negligently failing to supervise the game. The trial court granted Sacramento State's motion for summary judgment and the Court of Appeal affirmed, concluding that section 831.7 immunized the university from liability. (Ochoa, at p. 1306.) The court distinguished Acosta and Iverson as not involving adult students engaged in voluntary activities. Because soccer is a hazardous activity and Ochoa was an adult who was neither required nor expected to participate in the match, the court determined Ochoa was injured during a hazardous “recreational” activity within the meaning of section 831.7 and, accordingly, held Sacramento State absolutely immune. (Ochoa, at p. 1308.)

[**388] In the absence of an unambiguous plain meaning, we must look to extrinsic sources such as legislative history to determine the statute's meaning. [*156] (Wilcox v. Birtwhistle (1999) 21 Cal.4th 973, 977 [90 Cal. Rptr. 2d 260, 987 P.2d 727].) Our review of the legislative history of section 831.7 leads us to agree with Acosta and Iverson. The statute's roots lie in Civil Code section 846, a premises liability statute that provides qualified immunity for landowners against claims by recreational users: “An owner of any estate or any other interest in real property, whether possessory or nonpossessory, owes no duty of care to keep the premises safe for entry [***305] or use by others for any recreational purpose or to give any warning of hazardous conditions, uses of, structures, or activities on such premises to persons entering for such purpose, except as provided in this section.” Civil Code section 846 leaves in place whatever common law premises liability would exist “(a) for willful or malicious failure to guard or warn against a dangerous condition, use, structure or activity; or (b) for injury suffered in any case where permission to enter for the above purpose was granted for a consideration other than the consideration, if any, paid to said landowner by the state, or where consideration has been received from others for the same purpose; or (c) to any persons who are expressly invited rather than merely permitted to come upon the premises by the landowner.” (Civ. Code, � 846.)

In the late 1970's, a split of authority developed over whether Civil Code section 846 immunity extended to public entities. Early cases assumed it did. (See English v. Marin Mun. Water Dist. (1977) 66 Cal. App. 3d 725, 728–731 [136 Cal. Rptr. 224]; Gerkin v. Santa Clara Valley Water Dist. (1979) 95 Cal. App. 3d 1022, 1025–1028 [157 Cal. Rptr. 612]; Moore v. City of Torrance (1979) 101 Cal. App. 3d 66, 72 [166 Cal. Rptr. 192]; Blakley v. State of California (1980) 108 Cal. App. 3d 971, 975 [167 Cal. Rptr. 1].) Later cases reversed this trend. (See, e.g., Nelsen v. City of Gridley (1980) 113 Cal. App. 3d 87, 91 [169 Cal. Rptr. 757].) This court finally resolved the issue in 1983, siding with the later cases and holding that public entities are not protected by Civil Code section 846. (Delta Farms Reclamation Dist. v. Superior Court (1983) 33 Cal.3d 699, 710 [190 Cal. Rptr. 494, 660 P.2d 1168].)

While Delta Farms Reclamation Dist. v. Superior Court, supra, 33 Cal.3d 699, was still pending in this court, Assemblyman Robert Campbell responded to the uncertainty by introducing Assembly Bill No. 555 (1983–1984 Reg. Sess.), which proposed new Government Code section 831.7. The bill's source, the East Bay Regional Park District, had expressed concern that because it was virtually impossible to prevent park users from engaging in hazardous recreational activities, substantial legal claims from recreational users might force it to limit park access. Other supporters decried allegedly baseless personal injury and property damage suits by recreational public property users. (Assem. Com. on Judiciary, Analysis of Assem. Bill No. 555 [*157] (1983–1984 Reg. Sess.) as introduced Feb. 10, 1983, p. 2; Richard C. Trudeau, Gen. Manager, East Bay Regional Park Dist., letter to Sen. Com. on Judiciary, May 26, 1983; Sen. Com. on Judiciary, Analysis of Assem. Bill No. 555 (1983–1984 Reg. Sess.) as amended May 31, 1983, p. 7.) The Assembly Committee on the Judiciary analysis of the bill noted the uncertainty in the Courts of Appeal over the availability of Civil Code section 846 qualified immunity to public entities. (Assem. Com. on Judiciary, Analysis of Assem. Bill No. 555 (1983–1984 Reg. Sess.) as introduced Feb. 10, 1983, pp. 2–3.) It explained that Civil Code section 846's “qualified immunity is [intended] to encourage landowners to make their land available to the general public for recreational purposes without risk of tort liability for permitting that use” and that “[t]his bill is patterned after Civil Code [s]ection 846.” (Assem. Com. on Judiciary, Analysis of Assem. Bill No. 555 (1983–1984 Reg. Sess.) as introduced Feb. 10, 1983, pp. 2, 3; see also Sen. Com. on Judiciary, Analysis of Assem. Bill No. 555 (1983–1984 Reg. Sess.) as amended May 27, 1983, p. 4 [“This bill is patterned after existing law which generally provides that a private owner of any interest in land owes no duty to keep the premises safe or to warn of dangerous conditions when people are permitted to use the land for recreation”].) [**389] [***306]

The Senate Committee on the Judiciary's analysis confirms that Government Code section 831.7 was designed to mirror Civil Code section 846's circumscription of property-based duties. Assembly Bill No. 555, “by providing a qualified immunity, would limit a public entity's duty to keep its land safe for certain recreational users.” (Sen. Com. on Judiciary, Analysis of Assem. Bill No. 555 (1983–1984 Reg. Sess.) as amended May 31, 1983, p. 7, italics added.) The bill's focus, the analysis explained, was on recreational users who might injure themselves during hazardous unsupervised activities and attempt to attribute their injuries to conditions of public property. “The primary purpose of [Assembly Bill No. 555] is to prevent the hang glider or rock climber from suing a public entity when that person injured himself in the course of the activity.” (Sen. Com. on Judiciary, Analysis of Assem. Bill No. 555 (1983–1984 Reg. Sess.) as amended May 27, 1983, p. 6.)

Thus, Government Code section 831.7 was adopted as a premises liability measure, modeled on Civil Code section 846, and designed to limit liability based on a public entity's failure either to maintain public property or to warn of dangerous conditions on public property. Nothing in the history of the measure indicates the statute was intended to limit a public entity's liability arising from other duties, such as any duty owed to supervise participation in [*158] particular activities. Consistent with the legislative history, those cases applying section 831.7 immunity generally have done so only in the context of injuries sustained during voluntary, unsupervised, unsponsored activities and have barred claims alleging breach of the duty to maintain property or to warn of unsafe conditions. (E.g., Wood v. County of San Joaquin (2003) 111 Cal.App.4th 960 [4 Cal. Rptr. 3d 340] [� 831.7 barred claim for injury sustained during unsupervised, unsponsored boating]; Yarber v. Oakland Unified School Dist. (1992) 4 Cal.App.4th 1516 [6 Cal. Rptr. 2d 437] [same for injury sustained during after-hours adult basketball game]; Tessier v. City of Newport Beach (1990) 219 Cal. App. 3d 310 [268 Cal. Rptr. 233] [same for injury sustained during unsupervised diving].)

CA(2)(2) Separate and apart from the body of law governing premises liability claims, another body of law establishes that public schools and universities owe certain non-property-based duties to their students. Public schools have a duty to supervise students (Ed. Code, � 44807; Hoyem v. Manhattan Beach City Sch. Dist. (1978) 22 Cal.3d 508, 513 [150 Cal. Rptr. 1, 585 P.2d 851]; Dailey v. Los Angeles Unified School Dist. (1970) 2 Cal.3d 741, 747 [87 Cal. Rptr. 376, 470 P.2d 360]), a duty that extends to athletic practice and play (see Leger v. Stockton Unified School Dist., supra, 202 Cal. App. 3d at pp. 1458–1459). Although with the demise of the in loco parentis doctrine, colleges and universities do not owe similarly broad duties of supervision to all their students (Stockinger v. Feather River Community College (2003) 111 Cal.App.4th 1014, 1031–1032 [4 Cal. Rptr. 3d 385]; Crow v. State of California (1990) 222 Cal. App. 3d 192, 209 [271 Cal. Rptr. 349]; Baldwin v. Zoradi (1981) 123 Cal. App. 3d 275, 287–291 [176 Cal. Rptr. 809]), that development has not limited the recognition that HN3Go to the description of this Headnote.colleges and universities owe special duties to their athletes when conducting athletic practices and games. 3

FOOTNOTES

3 Fortier v. Los Rios Community College Dist. (1996) 45 Cal.App.4th 430, 435–436 [52 Cal. Rptr. 2d 812] (college instructor has duty not to increase risks inherent in participation in sport); Kleinknecht v. Gettysburg College (3d Cir. 1993) 989 F.2d 1360, 1372 (college owes duty to student-athlete to have timely medical care available); Stineman v. Fontbonne College (8th Cir. 1981) 664 F.2d 1082, 1086 (same); Davidson v. Univ. of N.C. at Chapel Hill (2001) 142 N.C. App. 544 [543 S.E.2d 920, 926–928] (university owes duty of care to members of school-sponsored intercollegiate team); see also Comment, Malpractice During Practice: Should NCAA Coaches Be Liable for Negligence? (2002) 22 Loyola L.A. Ent. L.Rev. 613, 625–635; Comment, Do Universities Have a Special Duty of Care to Protect Student-Athletes from Injury? (1999) 6 Vill. Sports & Ent. L.J. 219, 224–229; Comment, The Special Relationship Between Student-Athletes and Colleges: An Analysis of a Heightened Duty of Care for the Injuries of Student-Athletes (1996) 7 Marq. Sports L.J. 329, 338–342; Whang, Necessary Roughness: Imposing a Heightened Duty of Care on Colleges for Injuries of Student-Athletes (1995) 2 Sports Law. J. 25, 39–44 (hereafter Whang).
[**390] [***307]

As Acosta, supra, 31 Cal.App.4th 471, correctly notes, a tension exists between the immunity language of section 831.7, on the one hand, and the long-standing statutory and common law duties of student supervision schools [*159] have been recognized to have both before and after passage of section 831.7. Tension likewise exists between the legislative history of the statute, which establishes an intent focused exclusively on premises liability claims, and the language the Legislature chose to effectuate its purpose, which conceivably could be applied to a broader range of claims. (Acosta, at p. 476.) But, as in Acosta, we need not decide whether the immunity created by section 831.7 extends only to premises liability claims. We agree with Acosta and Iverson, supra, 32 Cal.App.4th 218, that these tensions can be resolved by acknowledging that school-sponsored and supervised sports activities are not “recreational” in the sense intended by the statute, and thus section 831.7 does not apply to immunize public educational entities from liability to students for injuries sustained during participation in such activities.

As noted, the legislative history demonstrates the Legislature had in mind immunizing public entities from liability arising from injuries sustained by members of the public during voluntary unsupervised play on public land, in order to prevent public entities from having to close off their land to such use to limit liability. Such activities may be fairly characterized as recreational. Sports in the school environment, in contrast, are not “recreational” in the sense of voluntary unsupervised play, but rather part and parcel of the school's educational mission. “It can no longer be denied that extracurricular activities constitute an integral component of public education.” (Hartzell v. Connell (1984) 35 Cal.3d 899, 909 [201 Cal. Rptr. 601, 679 P.2d 35].) “They are ‘[no] less fitted for the ultimate purpose of our public schools, to wit, the making of good citizens physically, mentally, and morally, than the study of algebra and Latin … .’ ” (Ibid., italics added.) Interscholastic athletics are a fundamental, integral part of public education. 4 Through high school, participation in physical education classes is mandatory. (Ed. Code, �� 51210, subd. (g), 51220, subd. (d), 51222; see also id., � 51210.2, subd. (a) [declaring physical fitness of equal importance with other elements of curriculum].) Likewise, “[c]ollege athletic programs have long been regarded as integral components of the college experience.” (Whang, supra, 2 Sports Law. J. at p. 25; see [***308] California State University, Hayward v. National Collegiate Athletic Assn. (1975) 47 Cal. App. 3d 533, 541–542 [121 Cal. Rptr. 85].) Intercollegiate athletics are part and parcel of community colleges' educational mission as well. (Cabrillo Community College Dist. v. California Junior College Assn. (1975) 44 Cal. App. 3d 367, 372–373 [118 Cal. Rptr. 708].) And, as discussed above, a separate body of law has developed to govern the special duties that schools and colleges owe their athletes.

FOOTNOTES

4 See Brentwood Academy v. Tennessee Secondary School Athletic Assn. (2001) 531 U.S. 288, 299 [148 L. Ed. 2d 807, 121 S. Ct. 924]; City of Santa Cruz v. Santa Cruz City Schools Bd. of Ed. (1989) 210 Cal. App. 3d 1, 8–9 [258 Cal. Rptr. 101]; Kelley v. Metropolitan County Bd. of Ed. of Nashville, Etc. (M.D.Tenn. 1968) 293 F. Supp. 485, 493; Lee v. Macon County Board of Education (M.D.Ala. 1968) 283 F. Supp. 194, 197.
[*160]

CA(3)(3) HN4Go to the description of this Headnote.The paramount goal of statutory interpretation is to “ascertain the intent of the drafters so as to effectuate the purpose of the law.” (Esberg v. Union Oil Co. (2002) 28 Cal.4th 262, 268 [121 Cal. Rptr. 2d 203, 47 P.3d 1069].) Nothing in the legislative history indicates the Legislature ever contemplated or intended that passage of section 831.7 would overrule the body of law governing supervisorial duties and liability in the school sports context. We agree with the Court of Appeal in Acosta, supra, 31 Cal.App.4th at page 478: In the absence of any indication of such a legislative intent, we will not read section 831.7 as immunizing public entities from potential liability arising out of their oversight of school-sponsored activities. CA(4)(4) Thus, we conclude that HN5Go to the description of this Headnote.school sports in general, and organized intercollegiate games in particular, are not “recreational” within the meaning of the statute. 5 [**391] Avila was injured while participating in an intercollegiate baseball game. Section 831.7 does not immunize the District from liability.

FOOTNOTES

5 Taking the allegations of the complaint as true, it is clear Avila's injury occurred during a school-sponsored intercollegiate game that was supervised in part by Citrus College coaches. We need not define further the degree of school sponsorship necessary to render participation in a hazardous sport “nonrecreational.” Consequently, we have no occasion to question the conclusion that injuries sustained in unsupervised intramural or club matches may fall within the scope of section 831.7. (See Ochoa, supra, 72 Cal.App.4th at pp. 1307–1308 [holding injury from voluntary participation in intramural match subject to � 831.7 immunity].) However, to the extent Ochoa v. California State University, supra, 72 Cal.App.4th 1300, 1308, suggests section 831.7 always immunizes universities against liability for injuries sustained by their adult student-athletes, we disapprove it.


II. The Duty of Care Owed College Athletes

A. Primary Assumption of the Risk and the Duty Not to Increase Risks Inherent in a Sport

CA(5)(5) The District asserted as an alternate basis for demurrer that it owed Avila no duty of care. HN6Go to the description of this Headnote.To recover for negligence, Avila must demonstrate, inter alia, that the District breached a duty of care it owed him. Generally, each person has a duty to exercise reasonable care in the circumstances and is liable to those injured by the failure to do so. (Rowland v. Christian (1968) 69 Cal.2d 108, 112 [70 Cal. Rptr. 97, 443 P.2d 561].) By statute, the Legislature has extended this common law standard of tort liability to public employees (� 820, subd. (a); Hoff v. Vacaville Unified School Dist. (1998) 19 Cal.4th 925, 932 [80 Cal. Rptr. 2d 811, 968 P.2d 522]) and has extended liability for public employees' negligent acts to public entity defendants (� 815.2, subd. (a); Hoff, at p. 932).

CA(6)(6) HN7Go to the description of this Headnote.The existence of “ ‘ “[d]uty” is not an immutable fact of nature “ ‘but only an expression of the sum total of those considerations of policy which lead the law to say that the particular plaintiff is entitled to protection.’ ” ’ ” [*161] (Parsons v. Crown Disposal Co. (1997) 15 Cal.4th 456, 472 [63 Cal. Rptr. 2d 291, 936 P.2d 70].) Thus, the [***309] existence and scope of a defendant's duty is an issue of law, to be decided by a court not a jury. (Kahn v. East Side Union High School Dist. (2003) 31 Cal.4th 990, 1004 [4 Cal. Rptr. 3d 103, 75 P.3d 30].) When the injury is to a sporting participant, the considerations of policy and the question of duty necessarily become intertwined with the question of assumption of risk.

The traditional version of the assumption of risk doctrine required proof that the plaintiff voluntarily accepted a specific known and appreciated risk. (Prescott v. Ralph's Grocery Co. (1954) 42 Cal.2d 158, 161–162 [265 P.2d 904], citing Rest., Torts, � 893.) The doctrine depended on the actual subjective knowledge of the given plaintiff (Shahinian v. McCormick (1963) 59 Cal.2d 554, 567 [30 Cal. Rptr. 521, 381 P.2d 377]) and, where the elements were met, was an absolute defense to liability for injuries arising from the known risk (Quinn v. Recreation Park Assn. (1935) 3 Cal.2d 725, 731 [46 P.2d 144]).

CA(7)(7) California's abandonment of the doctrine of contributory negligence in favor of comparative negligence (Li v. Yellow Cab Co. (1975) 13 Cal.3d 804 [119 Cal. Rptr. 858, 532 P.2d 1226]) led to a reconceptualization of the assumption of risk. In Knight v. Jewett (1992) 3 Cal.4th 296 [11 Cal. Rptr. 2d 2, 834 P.2d 696] (Knight), a plurality of this court explained that there are in fact two species of assumption of risk: primary and secondary. (Id. at pp. 308–309 (plur. opn. of George, J.).) HN8Go to the description of this Headnote.Primary assumption of the risk arises when, as a matter of law and policy, a defendant owes no duty to protect a plaintiff from particular harms. (Ibid.) 6 Applied in the sporting context, it precludes liability for injuries arising from those risks deemed inherent in a sport; as a matter of law, others have no legal duty to eliminate those risks or otherwise protect a sports participant from them. (Id. at pp. 315–316.) [**392] Under this duty approach, a court need not ask what risks a particular plaintiff subjectively knew of and chose to encounter, but instead must evaluate the fundamental nature of the sport and the defendant's role in or relationship to that sport in order to determine whether the defendant owes a duty to protect a plaintiff from the particular risk of harm. (Id. at pp. 313, 315–317.) A majority of this court has since embraced the Knight approach. (Kahn v. East Side Union High School Dist., supra, 31 Cal.4th at pp. 1004–1005; Cheong v. Antablin (1997) 16 Cal.4th 1063, 1067–1068 [68 Cal. Rptr. 2d 859, 946 P.2d 817].)

FOOTNOTES

6 Secondary assumption of the risk arises when the defendant still owes a duty of care, but the plaintiff knowingly encounters the risks attendant on the defendant's breach of that duty. (Knight, supra, 3 Cal.4th at p. 308.) We deal here with an issue of primary, not secondary, assumption of the risk.


CA(8)(8) Here, the host school's role is a mixed one: its players are coparticipants, its coaches and managers have supervisorial authority over the conduct [*162] of the game, and other representatives of the school are responsible for the condition of the playing facility. We have previously established that HN9Go to the description of this Headnote.coparticipants have a duty not to act recklessly, outside the bounds of the sport (Knight, supra, 3 Cal.4th at pp. 318–321), and coaches and instructors have a duty not to increase the risks inherent in sports participation (Kahn v. East Side Union High School Dist., supra, 31 Cal.4th at pp. 1005–1006); we also have noted in dicta that those responsible for maintaining athletic facilities have [***310] a similar duty not to increase the inherent risks, albeit in the context of businesses selling recreational opportunities (Parsons v. Crown Disposal Co., supra, 15 Cal.4th at p. 482 [collecting cases]). In contrast, those with no relation to the sport have no such duty. (Id. at pp. 482–483 [garbage truck operator has no duty not to increase risks inherent in horseback riding].)

CA(9)(9) In interscholastic and intercollegiate competition, the host school is not a disinterested, uninvolved party vis-�-vis the athletes it invites to compete on its grounds. Without a visiting team, there can be no competition. Intercollegiate competition allows a school to, on the smallest scale, offer its students the benefits of athletic participation and, on the largest scale, reap the economic and marketing benefits that derive from maintenance of a major sports program. 7 These benefits justify removing a host school from the broad class of those with no connection to a sporting contest and no duty to the participants. In light of those benefits, we hold thatHN10Go to the description of this Headnote. in interscholastic and intercollegiate competition, the host school and its agents owe a duty to home and visiting players alike to, at a minimum, not increase the risks inherent in the sport. Schools and universities are already vicariously liable for breaches by the coaches they employ, who owe a duty to their own athletes not to increase the risks of sports participation. (Kahn v. East Side Union High School Dist., supra, 31 Cal.4th at pp. 1005–1006.) No reason appears to conclude intercollegiate athletics will be harmed by making visiting players, necessary coparticipants in any game, additional beneficiaries of the limited duty not to increase the risks of participation. Thus, we disagree with the Court of Appeal dissent, which argued that the District is little more than a passive provider of facilities and therefore should have no obligation to visiting players.

FOOTNOTES

7 These benefits may include enhanced recruitment of athletes and other students, increased alumni donations, and revenue from the sale of broadcasting rights. (See Note, Taking One for the Team: Davidson v. University of North Carolina and the Duty of Care Owed by Universities to Their Student-Athletes (2002) 37 Wake Forest L.Rev. 589, 589–590, 605–606; Whang, supra, 2 Sports Law. J. at pp. 26–27, 40–42.)


The District relies on cases establishing that colleges and universities owe no general duty to their students to ensure their welfare. (Crow v. State of California, supra, 222 Cal. App. 3d at p. 209; Baldwin v. Zoradi, supra, 123 Cal. App. 3d at pp. 287–291.) We have no quarrel with these cases. Nor do we [*163] have occasion to decide what duties a college or university might owe in the context of intracollegiate competition, as with the intramural competition at issue in Ochoa, supra, 72 Cal.App.4th 1300, also relied upon by the District. The duty of a host school to its own and visiting players in school-supervised athletic events is an exception [**393] to the general absence of duty, an exception plainly warranted by the relationship of the host school to all the student participants in the competitions it sponsors.

B. Application

We consider next whether Avila has alleged facts supporting breach of the duty not to enhance the inherent risks of his sport. Though it numbers them differently, Avila's complaint in essence alleges four ways in which the District breached a duty to Avila by: (1) conducting the game at all; (2) failing to control the Citrus College pitcher; (3) failing to [***311] provide umpires to supervise and control the game; and (4) failing to provide medical care. 8 The District's demurrer was properly sustained if, and only if, each of these alleged breaches, assumed to be true, falls outside any duty owed by the District and within the inherent risks of the sport assumed by Avila.

FOOTNOTES

8 Avila abandoned at oral argument a fifth theory, that the District breached a duty to him by providing faulty equipment, counsel stating he had learned through discovery that the District had not furnished the allegedly defective batting helmet. We take a dim view of counsel's decision to wait until oral argument to apprise this court that a claim is being abandoned. When counsel learns of new facts that cause him to abandon a claim, the proper course is promptly to advise opposing counsel and the court.


With respect to the first of these, conducting the game, Avila cites unspecified “community college baseball rules” prohibiting preseason games. But the only consequence of the District's hosting the game was that it exposed Avila, who chose to participate, to the ordinary inherent risks of the sport of baseball. Nothing about the bare fact of the District's hosting the game enhanced those ordinary risks, so its doing so, whether or not in violation of the alleged rules, does not constitute a breach of its duty not to enhance the ordinary risks of baseball. Nor did the District owe any separate duty to Avila not to host the game.

The second alleged breach, the failure to supervise and control the Citrus College pitcher, is barred by primary assumption of the risk. Being hit by a pitch is an inherent risk of baseball. (Balthazor v. Little League Baseball, Inc. (1998) 62 Cal.App.4th 47, 51–52 [72 Cal. Rptr. 2d 337]; see also Mann v. Nutrilite, Inc. (1955) 136 Cal. App. 2d 729, 734 [289 P.2d 282] [same regarding being hit by thrown ball].) The dangers of being hit by a pitch, often thrown at [*164] speeds approaching 100 miles per hour, are apparent and well known: being hit can result in serious injury or, on rare tragic occasions, death. 9

FOOTNOTES

9 Most famously, in August 1920, Cleveland Indians shortstop Roy Chapman was hit by a pitch from the New York Yankees' Carl Mays. He died the next day. (Sowell, The Pitch that Killed (1989) pp. 165–190; James, The Bill James Baseball Abstract (1985) pp. 131, 137.) At least seven other batters in organized baseball have been killed by pitches. (James, at pp. 131, 137.)


Being intentionally hit is likewise an inherent risk of the sport, so accepted by custom that a pitch intentionally thrown at a batter has its own terminology: “brushback,” “beanball,” “chin music.” In turn, those pitchers notorious for throwing at hitters are “headhunters.” Pitchers intentionally throw at batters to disrupt a batter's timing or back him away from home plate, to retaliate after a teammate has been hit, or to punish a batter for having hit a home run. (See, e.g., Kahn, The Head Game (2000) pp. 205–239.) Some of the most respected baseball managers and pitchers have openly discussed the fundamental place throwing at batters has in their sport. In George Will's study of the game, Men at Work, one-time Oakland Athletics and current St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa details the strategic importance of ordering selective intentional throwing at opposing batters, principally to retaliate for one's own players being hit. (Will, Men at Work (1990) pp. 61–64.) As Los Angeles Dodgers Hall of Fame pitcher Don Drysdale and New York Giants All Star pitcher Sal “The Barber” Maglie have explained, intentionally throwing at batters can also be an integral part of pitching tactics, a tool to help get batters out by upsetting their frame of [***312] mind. 10 Drysdale and Maglie are [**394] not alone; past and future Hall of Famers, from Early Wynn and Bob Gibson to Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens, have relied on the actual or threatened willingness to throw at batters to aid their pitching. (See, e.g., Kahn, The Head Game, at pp. 223–224; Yankees Aced by Red Sox, L.A. Times (May 31, 2001) p. D7 [relating Martinez's assertion that he would even throw at Babe Ruth].)

FOOTNOTES

10 Kahn, The Head Game, supra, at pages 211–212, 232–235. As Maglie explained the strategy: “ ‘You have to make the batter afraid of the ball or, anyway, aware that he can get hurt … . A good time is when the count is two [balls] and two [strikes]. He's looking to swing. You knock him down then and he gets up shaking. Now [throw a] curve [to] him and you have your out.’ ” (Id. at p. 211.) Maglie's nickname is attributed to his propensity for shaving batters' chins with his pitches. (Ibid.) Similarly for Drysdale: “ ‘[T]he knockdown pitch upsets a hitter's timing, like a change-up. It's not a weapon. It's a tactic.’ ” (Id. at p. 235.)


While these examples relate principally to professional baseball, “[t]here is nothing legally significant … about the level of play” in this case. (West v. Sundown Little League of Stockton, Inc. (2002) 96 Cal.App.4th 351, 359–360 [116 Cal. Rptr. 2d 849]; see Balthazor v. Little League Baseball, Inc., supra, 62 Cal.App.4th at pp. 51–52; Mann v. Nutrilite, Inc., supra, 136 Cal. App. 2d at p. 734.) The laws of physics that make a thrown baseball dangerous and the [*165] strategic benefits that arise from disrupting a batter's timing are only minimally dependent on the skill level of the participants, and we see no reason to distinguish between collegiate and professional baseball in applying primary assumption of the risk.

It is true that intentionally throwing at a batter is forbidden by the rules of baseball. (See, e.g., Off. Rules of Major League Baseball, rule 8.02(d); Nat. Collegiate Athletic Assn., 2006 NCAA Baseball Rules (Dec. 2005) rule 5, � 16(d), p. 62.) But “even when a participant's conduct violates a rule of the game and may subject the violator to internal sanctions prescribed by the sport itself, imposition of legal liability for such conduct might well alter fundamentally the nature of the sport by deterring participants from vigorously engaging in activity that falls close to, but on the permissible side of, a prescribed rule.” (Knight, supra, 3 Cal.4th at pp. 318–319.) It is one thing for an umpire to punish a pitcher who hits a batter by ejecting him from the game, or for a league to suspend the pitcher; it is quite another for tort law to chill any pitcher from throwing inside, i.e., close to the batter's body—a permissible and essential part of the sport—for fear of a suit over an errant pitch. For better or worse, being intentionally thrown at is a fundamental part and inherent risk of the sport of baseball. 11 It is not the function of tort law to police such conduct.

FOOTNOTES

11 The conclusion that being intentionally hit by a pitch is an inherent risk of baseball extends only to situations such as that alleged here, where the hit batter is at the plate. Allegations that a pitcher intentionally hit a batter who was still in the on deck circle, or elsewhere, would present an entirely different scenario. (See Note, Dollar Signs on the Muscle … and the Ligament, Tendon, and Ulnar Nerve: Institutional Liability Arising from Injuries to Student-Athletes (2001) 3 Va. J. Sports & L. 80, 80, 111–112 [recounting the notorious 1999 incident in which Wichita State University pitcher Ben Christensen hit University of Evansville second baseman Anthony Molina with a pitch while Molina was still in the on deck circle].)


CA(10)(10) In Knight, supra, 3 Cal.4th at page 320, we acknowledged that an athlete does not assume the risk of a coparticipant's intentional [***313] or reckless conduct “totally outside the range of the ordinary activity involved in the sport.” Here, even if the Citrus College pitcher intentionally threw at Avila, his conduct did not fall outside the range of ordinary activity involved in the sport. The District owed no duty to Avila to prevent the Citrus College pitcher from hitting batters, even intentionally. Consequently, the doctrine of primary assumption of the risk bars any claim predicated on the allegation that the Citrus College pitcher negligently or intentionally threw at Avila. 12

FOOTNOTES

12 The dissent takes issue with our deciding this question. (Conc. & dis. opn., post, at pp. 171–173.) Notwithstanding the official condemnation we and the dissent cite, pitchers have been throwing at batters for the better part of baseball's century-plus history. The taking of judicial notice of such matters is not reserved to trial courts, but lies within the power of every court. (Evid. Code, � 459.) To ignore this history in favor of reversal and remand would do nothing to enhance respect for the trial and appellate courts' respective roles. Similarly, a declaration of the scope of a defendant's duty is a statement of law. (Kahn v. East Side Union High School Dist., supra, 31 Cal.4th at p. 1004.) HN11Go to the description of this Headnote.Where, as here, the pleadings and matters subject to judicial notice establish the defendant owed the plaintiff no duty, a case may properly be disposed of on demurrer, without further waste of judicial resources.
[*166] [**395]

CA(11)(11) The dissent suggests primary assumption of the risk should not extend to an intentional tort such as battery and that Avila should have been granted leave to amend to allege a proper battery claim. (Conc. & dis. opn. post, at pp. 171, 173.) Amendment would have been futile. HN12Go to the description of this Headnote.Absence of consent is an element of battery. (Barouh v. Haberman (1994) 26 Cal.App.4th 40, 45–46 [31 Cal. Rptr. 2d 259].) “One who enters into a sport, game or contest may be taken to consent to physical contacts consistent with the understood rules of the game.” (Prosser & Keeton, Torts (5th ed. 1984) � 18, p. 114; see also Knight, supra, 3 Cal.4th at p. 311 [“It may be accurate to suggest that an individual who voluntarily engages in a potentially dangerous activity or sport ‘consents to’ or ‘agrees to assume’ the risks inherent in the activity”]; Ritchie-Gamester v. City of Berkley (Mich. 1999) 461 Mich. 73 [597 N.W.2d 517, 523] [“The act of stepping onto the field may be described as ‘consent to the inherent risks of the activity’ ”].) Thus, the boxer who steps into the ring consents to his opponent's jabs; the football player who steps onto the gridiron consents to his opponent's hard tackle; the hockey goalie who takes the ice consents to face his opponent's slapshots; and, here, the baseball player who steps to the plate consents to the possibility the opposing pitcher may throw near or at him. The complaint establishes Avila voluntarily participated in the baseball game; as such, his consent would bar any battery claim as a matter of law.

The third way in which Avila alleges the District breached its duty of care, by failing to provide umpires, likewise did not increase the risks inherent in the game. Baseball may be played with umpires, as between professionals at the World Series, or without, as between children in the sandlot. Avila argues that providing umpires would have made the game safer, because an umpire might have issued a warning and threatened ejections after the first batter was hit. Whatever the likelihood of this happening and the difficulty of showing causation, the argument overlooks a key point. The District owed “a duty not to increase the risks inherent in the sport, not a duty to decrease the risks.” (Balthazor v. Little [***314] League Baseball, Inc., supra, 62 Cal.App.4th at p. 52; accord, West v. Sundown Little League of Stockton, Inc., supra, 96 Cal.App.4th at p. 359.) While the provision of umpires might—might—have reduced the risk of a retaliatory beanball, Avila has alleged no facts supporting imposition of a duty on the District to reduce that risk.

Finally, Avila alleges that the District breached a duty to him by failing to provide medical care after he was injured. Relying on Brooks v. E. J. Willig Truck Transp. Co. (1953) 40 Cal.2d 669 [255 P.2d 802] (Brooks), he argues [*167] that because the District placed him in peril through the actions of the Citrus College pitcher, it had a duty to ensure he received medical attention.

CA(12)(12) In some circumstances, the common law imposes a duty on those who injure others to mitigate the resulting harm. Under the Restatement Second of Torts, section 322, HN13Go to the description of this Headnote.an actor who “knows or has reason to know that by his conduct, whether tortious or innocent, he has caused such bodily harm to another as to make him helpless and in danger of further harm … is under a duty to exercise reasonable care to prevent such further harm.” (Boldface omitted.) In Brooks, we recognized and applied this principle, holding in the context of a hit-and-run death that “[o]ne who negligently injures another and renders him helpless is bound to use reasonable care to prevent any further harm which the actor realizes or should realize threatens the injured person.” (Brooks, supra, 40 Cal.2d at pp. 678–679.)

CA(13)(13) Avila's proposed extension of Brooks to this case encounters at least three main difficulties. First, Avila has not alleged a [**396] basis on which to conclude the District caused his injury. HN14Go to the description of this Headnote.Universities ordinarily are not vicariously liable for the actions of their student-athletes during competition. (Townsend v. State of California (1987) 191 Cal. App. 3d 1530, 1536–1537 [237 Cal. Rptr. 146] [university not vicariously liable for actions of its basketball player]; see also Fox v. Bd. of Sup'rs of La. State Univ. (La. 1991) 576 So. 2d 978, 982–983 [no vicarious liability for actions of rugby club]; Kavanagh v. Trustees of Boston University (2003) 440 Mass. 195 [795 N.E.2d 1170, 1174–1176] [no vicarious liability for actions of basketball player]; Hanson v. Kynast (1986) 24 Ohio St. 3d 171 [24 Ohio B. 403, 494 N.E.2d 1091, 1096] [no vicarious liability for actions of lacrosse player].) While Avila argues the District should be responsible for the Citrus College pitcher's conduct if the Citrus College coaches ordered or condoned a retaliatory pitch, the complaint notably lacks any allegation they did so.

Second, even if Avila might have amended his complaint to add such an allegation, Brooks and the common law duty it recognizes are confined to situations where the injured party is helpless. The complaint establishes that Avila was able to make it to first and then second base under his own power, and was able to alert his own first base coach to his condition. These allegations cast serious doubt on whether Avila was sufficiently helpless so as to warrant imposing a Brooks/Restatement Second of Torts, section 322-type duty on the District.

Third, even if we were to impose a duty, the face of the complaint establishes that Avila's own Rio Hondo coaches and trainers were present. They, not Citrus College's coaches, had exclusive authority to determine whether Avila needed to be removed from the game for a pinch runner [***315] in [*168] order to receive medical attention. 13 Likewise, to the extent Avila argues a Citrus-College-provided umpire could have insisted Avila receive medical treatment, there is no basis for concluding a home team umpire would have been authorized to overrule the medical judgments of Rio Hondo's trainers. Thus, even if the District were responsible for causing Avila's injury, at most it would have had a duty to ensure that Avila's coaches and trainers were aware he had been injured so they could decide how best to attend to him. The complaint indicates Avila alerted his own first base coach to how he was feeling, and when he arrived at second base, a Citrus College player, recognizing Avila was injured, alerted the Rio Hondo bench, at which point Rio Hondo removed Avila from the game. If the District had a duty, it satisfied that duty. In the possibly apocryphal words of New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra, “It ain't over till it's over,” but this means that for Avila's complaint against Citrus College, it's over.

FOOTNOTES

13 Any departure from this rule would lead to chaos, as teams asserted a legal duty to remove their opponents' “injured” star players from competition in order to evaluate them and provide any necessary medical care.


Disposition

For the foregoing reasons, we reverse the judgment of the Court of Appeal.

George, C. J., Baxter, J., Chin, J., Moreno, J., and Corrigan, J., concurred.

CONCUR BY: KENNARD

DISSENT BY: KENNARD



KENNARD, J., Concurring and Dissenting.—I concur in part I of the majority opinion. There, the majority correctly holds that the statutory immunity conferred on public entities for an injury occurring during a “hazardous recreational activity” (Gov. Code, � 831.7) does not apply to injuries in intercollegiate baseball games.

I do not, however, join part II of the majority opinion. There, the majority holds that a baseball pitcher owes no duty to refrain from intentionally throwing a baseball at an opposing player's head. This is a startling conclusion. It is contrary to the official view in the sport that such conduct “should be—and is—condemned by everybody.” (Off. Rules of Major League Baseball, rule 8.02(d), off. coms.)

Central to the majority's holding is its reliance on the legal rule that there is no duty to avoid risks “inherent” in a recreational [**397] sport. 1 This rule had its inception in this court's plurality opinion in Knight v. Jewett (1992) 3 Cal.4th 296 [11 Cal. Rptr. 2d 2, 834 P.2d 696], and it was later embraced by a majority of this court in Kahn v. East Side Union High School Dist. (2003) 31 Cal.4th 990 [4 Cal. Rptr. 3d 103, 75 P.3d 30]. Unlike good wine, this rule has not [*169] improved with age. I have repeatedly voiced my disagreement with this court's adoption of that rule, which is “tearing at the fabric of tort law” (Cheong v. Antablin (1997) 16 Cal.4th 1063, 1075 [68 Cal. Rptr. 2d 859, 946 P.2d 817] (conc. opn. of Kennard, J.); see also Kahn v. East Side Union High School Dist., supra, 31 Cal.4th at pp. 1021–1022 (conc. & dis. opn. of Kennard, J.)), because it “distort[s] the negligence concept of due care to encompass reckless and intentional conduct.” (Cheong, supra, at p. 1075 (conc. opn. of Kennard, J.).) Moreover, because the question of what is “inherent” in a sport is amorphous and fact-intensive, it is impossible for trial courts “to discern, at an early stage in the proceedings, which risks are inherent in a [***316] given sport.” (Knight v. Jewett, supra, 3 Cal.4th at p. 337 (dis. opn. of Kennard, J.).) As explained below, this case illustrates that the no-duty-for-sports rule is unworkable and unfair. 2

FOOTNOTES

1 In this opinion, I frequently refer to that rule as the no-duty-for-sports rule.

2 Similar criticisms have appeared in scholarly journals. (See, e.g., Comment, Looking Beyond the Name of the Game: A Framework for Analyzing Recreational Sports Injury Cases (2001) 34 U.C. Davis L.Rev. 1029, 1057 [“The Knight decision sets an unreasonable standard of care for recreational sports injury cases that violates public policy.”]; Fore! American Golf Corporation v. Superior Court: The Continued Uneven Application of California's Flawed Doctrine of Assumption of Risk (2001) 29 Western St. U. L.Rev. 125, 145–146 [“Knight's vague guidelines regarding duty analysis” are “a flawed conceptualization of the doctrine of assumption of risk” that have “produced uneven results.”]; Sugarman, Judges as Tort Law Un-Makers: Recent California Experience with “New” Torts (1999) 49 DePaul L.Rev. 455, 485 [expressing “disagreement with the policy judgment that recreational injuries are an appropriate place for such a ‘no duty’ rule.”].)


I

Citrus Community College hosted a team from Rio Hondo Community College to compete in a baseball game. (Both schools are located in Southern California.) Because this was a preseason practice game, there was no umpire. Shortly after the Rio Hondo pitcher hit a Citrus player with a pitched ball, the Citrus pitcher, allegedly in retaliation, hit Rio Hondo player Jose Luis Avila in the head with a pitch. Avila suffered unspecified injuries.

Avila sued the Citrus Community College District (the District) and other parties not relevant here, alleging causes of action for general negligence, premises liability, products liability, and intentional tort. As pertinent here, Avila asserted the District was liable for (1) conducting an illegal preseason game in violation of community college rules, (2) failing to supervise and control the Citrus pitcher, (3) failing to provide umpires or other supervisory personnel to prevent reckless and retaliatory pitching, and (4) failing to summon medical care after Avila was hurt. 3

FOOTNOTES

3 Avila's complaint actually listed eight separate allegations, but the majority has consolidated and renumbered the allegations. (Maj. opn., ante, at p. 163.) For the sake of clarity, I have adopted the majority's numbering system.
[*170]

The District demurred. Curiously, it made no mention of the no-duty-for-sports rule. Rather, the District asserted that it was not liable under Government Code section 831.7, which immunizes public entities from liability for an injury occurring during a “hazardous recreational activity,” and that plaintiff Avila could not assert a claim for premises liability because he had not alleged that the conditions of the baseball field played any role in the injury. The trial court sustained the District's demurrer without granting Avila leave to amend his initial complaint, but the Court of Appeal reversed. This court granted the District's petition for review.

II

The first, third, and fourth of the legal theories alleged in Avila's complaint can be disposed of without resort to the no-duty-for-sports rule. [**398]

Avila's first theory of liability (that the District conducted an illegal preseason game) fails because, as the majority explains, the District did not breach any duty to Avila by conducting the game, irrespective of whether community college rules permitted it to be played. Avila's third theory (that the District failed to provide umpires) must be rejected because baseball games are often played without umpires, and there is no reason to impose on [***317] community colleges a duty to provide them. (See generally Rowland v. Christian (1968) 69 Cal.2d 108 [70 Cal. Rptr. 97, 443 P.2d 561].) And Avila's fourth theory (that the District failed to provide medical care) fails because, as the majority points out, the District had no duty to provide medical care when Avila's team came equipped with its own trainers, who were present to treat his injuries.

Avila's second theory of liability (that the District failed to supervise and control the Citrus pitcher) presents a more difficult question. As the majority notes, colleges “ordinarily are not vicariously liable for the actions of their student-athletes during competition.” (Maj. opn., ante, at p. 167.) Although Avila now argues that the District would be liable if its coaches ordered or allowed a retaliatory pitch aimed at Avila's head, his complaint does not expressly allege that they did so. Thus, his failure to do so justifies the trial court's decision to sustain the District's demurrer. But the trial court should have given Avila at least one opportunity to amend his original complaint to include such an allegation. (See generally 5 Witkin, Cal. Procedure (4th ed. 1997) Pleading, � 944, p. 402 [“An amendment should be allowed where the defect, though one of substance, may possibly be cured by supplying omitted allegations, and the plaintiff has not had a fair opportunity to do so, as where the demurrer was sustained to his first complaint.”].) [*171]

The majority, however, upholds the trial court's sustaining of the District's demurrer without leave to amend. Relying on the no-duty-for-sports rule, the majority, in essence, concludes that even if the District's coaches had ordered the Citrus pitcher to hit Avila in the head with a pitched ball, the District is not liable for Avila's injuries because the risk that a batter will be injured by a pitch intentionally thrown at his head is “an inherent risk of the sport.” (Maj. opn., ante, at p. 164.) According to the majority, “[s]ome of the most respected baseball managers and pitchers have openly discussed the fundamental place [that] throwing at batters has in their sport.” (Ibid.) The majority acknowledges that those comments were made in the context of professional baseball. The majority then proceeds to hold that throwing at batters is a risk as inherent in college baseball as it is in professional baseball. My concerns are threefold.

First, the determination whether being hit by a pitched ball intentionally aimed at one's head is an inherent risk of baseball, whether professional or intercollegiate, is a question of fact to be determined in the trial court. “It has long been the general rule and understanding that ‘an appeal reviews the correctness of a judgment as of the time of its rendition, upon a record of matters which were before the trial court for its consideration.’ [Citation.] This rule reflects an ?essential distinction between the trial and the appellate court … that it is the province of the trial court to decide questions of fact and of the appellate court to decide questions of law . …’ ” (In re Zeth S. (2003) 31 Cal.4th 396, 405 [2 Cal. Rptr. 3d 683, 73 P.3d 541], italics added.) Here, the trial court never heard, and thus never considered, the comments from professional baseball managers and pitchers on which the majority relies; indeed, not only did the District offer no evidence on this issue, but the District did not even argue that Avila's complaint was barred by the no-duty-for-sports rule. Undeterred, the majority has done its own research and made its own factual findings on this issue, thus invading the province of the trial court.

[***318] I recognize that this court must take judicial notice of “[f]acts and propositions of generalized knowledge that are so universally known that they cannot reasonably be the subject of dispute.” (Evid. Code, � 451, subd. (f); see also Evid. Code, � 452, subd. (h) [court may take judicial notice of “[f]acts and [**399] propositions that are not reasonably subject to dispute and are capable of immediate and accurate determination by resort to sources of reasonably indisputable accuracy.”].) But the majority's assertion that intentionally throwing a ball at a batter's head is inherent in intercollegiate baseball is not a fact so “universally known” that it “cannot reasonably be the subject of dispute.” (Evid. Code, � 451, subd. (f).) [*172]

Had Avila been given the opportunity in the trial court, he might well have called expert witnesses who could have refuted the majority's factual determination that aiming at a batter's head is inherent in professional baseball. And he could have pointed to the official comments accompanying Major League Baseball's rule 8.02(d), which prohibits pitchers from trying to hit the batter: “To pitch at a batter's head is unsportsmanlike and highly dangerous. It should be—and is—condemned by everybody. Umpires should act without hesitation in enforcement of this rule.” (Off. Rules of Major League Baseball, rule 8.02(d), off. coms.)

Alternatively, Avila could have called expert witnesses to refute the majority's finding, which is unsupported by any citation of authority, that the conduct in question is as inherent in intercollegiate baseball as it is in professional baseball. And he could have pointed out that, unlike the rules of professional baseball, the rules of the National Collegiate Athletic Association provide that a pitcher who intentionally throws at a batter is not only ejected from the game in which the pitch was thrown, but is also suspended for the team's next four games, and a pitcher who intentionally throws at a batter on three occasions must be suspended for the remainder of the season. (Nat. Collegiate Athletic Assn., NCAA Baseball Rules (Dec. 2005) rule 5, � 16(d).)

I turn to my second concern. This matter is here after an appeal from the trial court's order sustaining a demurrer. A demurrer “tests the pleading alone, and … lies only where the defects appear on the face of the pleading.” (5 Witkin, Cal. Procedure, supra, Pleading, � 900, p. 358.) It raises only questions of law. (Id. at p. 357.) But by relying on the no-duty-for-sports rule to hold that the District's demurrer was properly sustained, the majority imposes on trial courts the obligation to decide—in ruling on a demurrer—a question of fact: that is, whether a particular sports injury arises from an activity inherent in the game. Questions of fact cannot be decided on demurrer, however; they must be decided on summary judgment or at trial. Thus, the no-duty-for-sports rule is unworkable because it forces trial courts to decide questions of fact at the demurrer stage when the only method available to them is suitable only for deciding questions of law.

My third concern is that the majority's application of the no-duty-for-sports rule to include pitches intentionally thrown at a batter's head is an ill-conceived expansion of that rule into intentional torts. In Knight, the plaintiff alleged only that the defendant acted negligently (Knight v. Jewett, supra, 3 Cal.4th at p. 318), and the plurality there justified the no-duty-for-sports rule with the comment that a baseball player should not be held liable “for an [*173] injury resulting from a carelessly thrown ball or bat during a baseball game” (ibid., italics added). Here, however, the majority applies [***319] that rule to hold that the trial court properly sustained the District's demurrer to Avila's cause of action alleging an intentional tort, in which he alleged that the pitch that hit him “was thrown in a deliberate retaliatory fashion, with reckless disregard for the safety of plaintiff.” Even if I were to accept the majority's misguided no-duty-for-sports rule, I would apply it only to causes of action for negligence, not for intentional torts.

I would analyze Avila's claim under the traditional doctrine of assumption of risk. Under that doctrine, the pertinent inquiry is not what risk is inherent in a particular sport; rather, it is what risk the plaintiff consciously and voluntarily assumed. That issue, as I explained earlier, is not one involving a duty of care owed to another, to be resolved on demurrer; rather, it is an affirmative defense, to be resolved on summary judgment or at trial.

Under traditional assumption-of-risk analysis, “sports participants owe each other a duty to refrain from unreasonably risky conduct [**400] that may cause harm.” (Comment, Looking Beyond the Name of the Game: A Framework for Analyzing Recreational Sports Injury Cases, supra, 34 U.C. Davis L.Rev. at p. 1060.) Intentionally hitting another person in the head with a hard object thrown at a high speed is highly dangerous and is potentially tortious, no matter whether the object is a ball thrown on a baseball field or is a rock thrown on a city street. Thus, if the District here was complicit in a decision by the pitcher to hit Avila in the head with the baseball, it may be held liable for Avila's injuries if Avila did not assume the risk that the pitcher would hit him in this manner. But, as I explained earlier, Avila has thus far not alleged that coaches employed by the District either advised or condoned any such act. Thus, the trial court properly sustained the District's demurrer; but Avila should be given leave to amend his original complaint to allege that the District was legally responsible for the pitcher's decision to aim the baseball at Avila's head.

If Avila were to amend his complaint to allege the District's complicity in the pitcher's decision to hit him in the head with the baseball, the District should be permitted to deny liability on the ground that Avila assumed the risk of an intentional hit in the head during the game: that is, he “voluntarily accepted [that] risk with knowledge and appreciation of that risk.” (Knight v. Jewett, supra, 3 Cal.4th at p. 326 (dis. opn. of Kennard, J.).) Whether Avila assumed that risk is a question of fact that has no bearing on the District's duty of care toward Avila. Therefore, it cannot be decided on demurrer, but should be decided on a motion for summary judgment or at trial. [*174]

I would remand the matter to the Court of Appeal, and have that court direct the trial court to sustain Avila's demurrer with leave to amend the original complaint.

Is Ozzie Guillen A Tortfeasor?

NOTE 1: For a definition of what a tort is, click here. Essentially they are bad things that people do that you sue those people over instead of throwing them in jail. You see those commercials of lawyers in a monotone voice saying like "have you been wronged" and shit like that? Yeah those guys are tort lawyers. And a tortfeasor is someone who commits a tort.
NOTE 2: I am not a lawyer. Do not take this post as the law. I am not giving you advice. This post is simple just an explanation of a case I have read in law school.


Now that I have gotten the legal disclaimers out of the way, I'd like to introduce you to a case that I have recently read. Let me tell you the facts and see if this sounds familiar.

In Avila v Citrus Community College District (2006) [see post above if you'd like to read the entire case] , the Rio Hondo Community College Roadrunner were playing the Citrus Community College Owls pre-season baseball game. A Roadrunner hit a player with a pitch. When Avila, came to bat, as retaliation for the last batter hit, the Owls pitcher hit Avila in the head with the pitch. Avila felt dizzy and in pain but he went to first. He then went to second when the defender realized Avila was in pain. Avila ended up suing a lot of people over this incident (both schools, his manager, the helmet manufacturer, and the school districts). This particular case involves a suit between Avila and the rival school's school district.

Now I'd like to pause for a moment. This situation happens often in baseball, both professional and amateur. Ozzie has openly said if his players keep getting hit, he'll retaliate. Bobby Jenks got fined this year when he admitted he intentionally threw at Ian Kinsler earlier this year as retaliation. A few years ago (I'm sorry I don't remember the particulars but), Ozzie told a newly called up minor leaguer to hit the batter. After this pitcher threw it far behind the batter (but not hitting the batter), Ozzie threw a shit fit at this pitcher and we have never heard of this guy again.

So this decision could potentially have an impact on guys like Ozzie Guillen, or anyone in baseball who makes decisions like this. If we say a batter can collect money damages for things like this, then not only could we see this get eliminated from baseball, but if we do, dudes will have to go through extensive litigation and could lose a lot of money.

However, the court did not rule in favor of the batter. Avila sued the school district claiming they were negligent (I spent more than half a semester in law school going over what constitutes negligence so I'm not going to explain what it is, but feel free to briefly learn it.) The court said getting hit was an implicit part of the game of baseball and "an inherent risk of the sport." As a baseball player, you essentially agree to certain things that happen to you. In football, you agree to get tackled. And if you suffer two concussions or force a guy to become paralyzed, that's tough shit because you've already given your consent for people to do things to you that could potentially cause you serious or life-threatening harm. The same is true for baseball.

Even though getting intentionally hit is illegal and against MLB and probably all amateur baseball rules, it's still an inherent part of the game and you, as a player, have consented that if you get hit, you essentially can not sue for your damages.

The court goes on to say further
Pitcher intentionally throw at batters to disrupt a batter's timing or back him away from home plate, to retaliate after a teammate has been hit, or to punish a batter for having hit a home run. Some of the most respected baseball managers and pitchers have openly discussed the fundamental place throwing at batters has in their sport...

It is one thing to punish a pitcher who hits a batter by ejecting him from the game, or for a league to suspend the pitcher, it is quite another for tort law to chill any pitcher from throwing inside, i.e. close to the batter's body- a permissible and essential part of the sport- for fear over an errant pitch. For better or for worse, being intentionally thrown at is a fundamental part and inherent risk of the sport of baseball. It is not the function of tort law to police such conduct.

This is a pretty interesting statement. If you throw a ball at someone's head normally, you could potentially get sued for millions of dollars. But if you do it with uniforms, it's OK.

Another point DME and I have discussed is: "Is getting intentionally hit really a part of the game?" He says no. He says it's against the rules of baseball and thus no pitcher should ever do it. But this court talks about that. They say it still is a part of the game, even though it is against the rules. However, I bet if you polled every MLB player, they would say that getting hit and getting intentionally hit IS a part of the game. I think everyone in baseball is aware of it and they realize the risks. They know that they could get hit and I bet that they would WANT retaliation of they got hit. Even if baseball players are more pacifistic now, I still bet they realize it is a risk they are taking by playing. I'm sure it's small, but still a risk.

Plus, I think this could create a slippery slope. Take for instance, Carlos Quentin. The guys purposefully crouches inside the plate. Are pitchers not allowed to throw inside to him for fear that if they do hit, he'll sue them the next day? I think implementing tort law would cause pitchers to pitch less inside for fear of a law suit as well. Now you can argue if that really IS such a bad thing for there will be less injuries and harm to human life at only a small expense- a pitcher had to change the way he pitches.

I think you can also argue that if Avila won, that could translate to how other sports are played. The other week, Brady Quinn got picked off (shocking)and went to go try and tackle the player that picked him off. But because he's Brady Quinn and because he's a QB, he is a poor tackler. He ended up tackling a defender in an illegal way and I believe hurt the defender's legs for a bit. What he did was clearly against the rules of the NFL and the NFL punished him. But should we go so far to say that Brady Quinn should get sued (Well I personally hate Brady Quinn so...)? I think all athletes realize these inherent risks that being in the sport.

The biggest effect I think this decision would have had is in hockey. One of the most entertaining reasons people watch hockey is for the fights. Obviously, if you fight someone on the street, you've committed a tort (and probably a crime). But when you do it in hockey, it's not only commonly done, but fans expect it.

My Torts professor joked about this, but we as a society really do put a high societal value on recreation and professional sports. It's becomes ingrained as a fabric of out lives). DME does nothing BUT talk about sports (rather baseball). All four blog authors spend a lot of time (too much) watching and writing about sports. Sports are the reason we download podcasts, buy things, watch TV, go out. We really do value sports heavily and as a result, the law treats sports differently.

Going back to the original case the court talks about the necessity for not siding with Avila; for saying that pitcher's need to pitch inside. Think about if the law really did punish athletes for things that are normally torts everywhere else? This really would change the way pitcher's pitch and batter's hit. These qualitative aspects would screw up the quantitative analysis we love so much. We, society along with the four blog authors, really would be upset if the law intervened too much in sports (Hell. we get made when they hold hearing on steroids). We really do put a high societal value.

If you've learned anything from this post, I hope at least you've learned that judges also believe that a pitcher should be allowed to pitch inside

GOI Football Predictions: Week Eleven

My selections are in bold.
Here are my Picks for this week:

Miami at Carolina (Already picked Miami)
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Seattle at Minnesota
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Atlanta at N.Y. Giants
Washington at Dallas
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Buffalo at Jacksonville
Cleveland at Detroit
San Francisco at Green Bay
Arizona at St. Louis
Cincinnati at Oakland
San Diego at Denver
N.Y. Jets at New England
Philadelphia at Chicago
Tennessee at Houston

FJM: ESPN/ Tim Lincecum Edition

Here's excerpts from the ESPN article written about Tim Lincecum winning the NL Cy Young this year. You can read the full article here, but if you're smart enough to be on this blog, I wouldn't recommend it.

ESPN seem like that kid in your high school class who's a nice kid but just a little bit slow getting things. Kind of like Forrest Gump. He's trying so hard to learn the material, but you can't help but laugh at him anyway.

I'm going to hell.

Anyway, here's some of ESPN's hard hitting analysis and it's attempts to bring sabermetrics and advanced statistics into the mainstream

Lincecum, nicknamed "The Freak" for his giant stride, led the NL with 261 strikeouts and tied for the league lead with four complete games and two shutouts.

Well, at least they're getting off on the right foot. You know how us sabermetricians love to use complete games and shut outs as the basis for our Cy Young votes. That's why I've been advocating all year for Mark Buerhle to win the AL Cy Young.

The wiry right-hander attracts plenty of attention on the mound with his shoulder-length brown hair and twisting delivery. But it was his 15 victories -- the fewest for a Cy Young starter over a non-shortened season -- that were really noticeable for the award winner.

Yes, the fact that Lincecum plays a team with an offense worse than the Washington Nationals and on par with the Kansas City Royals. It wasn't the fact that this is Lincecum's second Cy Young in less than three years of being in MLB or the fact that he's fucking awesome that was the noticeable thing. Nope, it was 15 wins.

The 2009 honors for Lincecum and Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke reflect a recent shift in how pitchers are evaluated. The focus has changed to more developed statistics, including some that even take into account team defense.

What a novel concept! We use data that proves causal factors in determining how good a player as the basis for Cy Young awards and not wins!? These smart baseball writers are too confusing for my dumb little mind. My head can't comprehend this concept that once a pitch leaves the picthers hand, he really has no control whether that ball goes as a pop up or home run! How DARE ESPN take into team defense when evaluating a pitcher!

Also, I think Chris Rongey would disagree with you ESPN.

Greinke equaled the previous low of 16 wins for a non-shortened season when he won the AL award on Tuesday. Afterward, he talked all about FIP, a mathematician's dream that stands for Fielding Independent Pitching.

Oh, you mean a Kansas City Royals pitcher ALSO got a Cy Young. Well, too bad both guys are just shitty batters that they couldn't generate enough runs to help themselves win.

Also, when did FIP equal a mathematicians dream? That's like saying it's Steve Phillips dream to spend all of is free time going after ugly girls. Sure it SOUNDS like they go together, but do they really?

Plus, I thought FIP also was for loser bloggers who sit in their mother's basement? Why couldn't ESPN just say FIP = one of the best ways to measure how good a player is considering, um, it is?

Lincecum has his own favorite indicator.

"To say which one I look to the most, I would just say WHIP," he said, referring to walks plus hits allowed per inning, "just because you just limit the amount of baserunners that can hurt you."

Too bad Lincecum isn't as smart as Zach Greinke. Lincy's arm may be developed by NASA, but his head sure isn't.

...
Two voters, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law of ESPN.com, did not include Carpenter on their ballots. Carroll had Wainwright in the top spot, Lincecum second and Arizona's Dan Haren third. Law voted for Lincecum, Atlanta's Javier Vazquez and Wainwright in third. Those were the only votes for Haren and Vazquez.

You mean two really smart analysts who are aware of the causal reasons why a pitcher is good actually used logic and reasoning as the basis for voting and not their "eye" or anything like that! What silly people are getting Cy Young votes these days!

The Time is now for Devin Aromashodu!

Devin Aromashodu is a wide receiver for the Chicago Bears. Not too many people know who he is. If you’re a loyal reader of GOI you should know who he is. He is a receiver that has bounced around and is already on his 3rd team at only 25 years old. The Bears signed him and he made a big impression on the Bears and Jay Cutler in Training camp. He also made a big impression on me and my friend Vance when we saw him at training camp. Even though my impression of him doesn't count. It is only Ron Turner's, Lovie Smith, and Jay Cutler's impression that counts.

He started the season injured and was inactive for the first 6 games of the season. Last week was the first game of the season where he had a pass thrown his way and he caught it for 10 yards on the final drive in the 4th quarter before Cutler threw the interception in the end zone. Cutler likes him because he is tall at 6-2, fast, and has great hands. The Bears are starting to use Aromashodu so I expect great things.

This is a video of him when he was briefly with the Colts:


This is a video of a great catch he made in the pre-season:

Lets get ready for him making big plays on Sunday for the Bears!

Lincecum's NL Cy Young Implications

Congratulations to Tim Lincecum, who just won his second (consecutive) Cy Young Award. Despite not getting the most first place votes (Wainwright did, but finished third), Lincecum undoubtedly deserved the baseball's highest pitching honor. His 261 Ks were the most in the NL. His 10.42 K/9 was the best amongst all pitchers in baseball who throw 150+ innings. Lincecum was top 5 in ERA, WHIP and FIP. Truth be told, his 2.34 FIP was second only to Greinke's 2.33 mark. Lincecum's 2009, like Greinke's 2009, was nothing short of dominant. It was better in every aspect to his outstanding 2008 campaign in every way except W's (which is a useless metric anyway). There is no doubt in my mind that Lincecum unanimously deserved the award over Carpenter, who had over 100 less Ks in 30 less innings, or Wainwright, who had a great season, but was not even top 10 in FIP or top 5 in ERA). In fact, if it was not for the Wins disparity, Lincecum would have probably gotten all of Carpenter and Wainwright's second place votes too, just for good measure.

That's two Cy Youngs in 2.5+ years of service. Lincecum is a Super Two this year. His arbitration potential in unheard of. Ryan Howard set the first year arb. award record in 2008, at $10 million. That was with only a single MVP to his name. Lincecum -- who has 676 Ks in less than 600 IP and a career WHIP of 1.15 -- stands to make more money than Free Agent SP John Lackey. He even has the potential to make more money than Matt Holliday, depending on the kind of long term deal Holliday is seeking.

Fangraphs valued Lincecum's +8.2 WAR 2009 season at $37.0 million. Only three players (Greinke (+9.4 WAR), Zobrist (+8.6 WAR) and Pujols (+8.4 WAR)) were more valuable last season. Bill James is predicting that Lincecum will almost exactly repeat his 2008 numbers (+7.5 WAR) in 2010. That would make Lincecum's performance worth between $30 and $35 million.

The good news for that Giants is that Lincecum is open to a long term deal. The bad news is how much Lincecum will probably cost. The Giants were dead last in wOBA/OPS last year and are in dire need of a quality hitter. According to MLBTR, the Giants' payroll stands to be around $80 million next season. They opened the 2009 season with an $82.6 million payroll, so the team seems a bit cash strapped at the moment. The Giants, however, will not have Lincecum forever and he's only going to get more expensive (just imagine the second year arbitration award potential if Lincecum were to pull off the three peat). SF has a great, young pitching staff and the window for winning will shrink as more core players (Sanchez, Sandoval, etc) get into the arbitration mix.

It's pure speculation on my part, but if the Giants have the money lying around, they should look into trading Jonathan Sanchez over to the Brewers for Prince Fielder. Sanchez is the kind of cheap, quality talent the Brewers are desperately seeking and Fielder is...well, Fielder. Can't hurt to add a .400+ wOBA bat to a .305 wOBA team. Sanchez might be too little to offer for Fielder, but maybe Matt Cain (also cost controlled)? Perhaps take a gamble and trade for Mat Gamel?

Who You Got: Panthers or Dolphins?

Ok, heads is home team, tails is away. And it's...

Carolina

Scooter the baseball has nothing on a talking floating glove

Is Brian Westbrook's Career Over?


Westbrook has suffered two concussions this season, and within about a few weeks of each other. Westbrook is 30 years old. As LT has shown us this year, not only is on the decline to not produce as well anyway, but the dude is risking his life if he steps onto the football field again. Westbrook was cleared to play after he suffered one concussion, and then suffered another. It doesn't take a med student to realize that Westbrook has probably done a shit ton of damage to his body already over the course of playing football, nevertheless compounding two concussion on top of that, Westbrook should, and probably is, considering retirement.

So if he does retire, is he a hall of famer? Dude has always been good when he played, but when you combine that he played on a team that always seem to pass 60% of the time and Westbrook's career was riddled with injuries, does he deserve to go into Canton. Well, let's take a look at his numbers.

In 7.5 seasons (all with the Eagles), Westbrook is a two time pro bowler and started once. He has 37 career TDs and a 4.6 career YPC. But Westbrook was always a part of the passing game as well with 29 receiving TDs and a 9.0 YPR.

Unfortunately, Westbrook has never really been THAT good at anything. He ranks 88th in rushing/receiving TDs, 119th in rushing TDs, 57th in YPC, 79th in YPG, 160th in receptions, and 81st in total yards from scrimmage. He's always been one of the best RBs when he's played, but never completing 16 games in a season will tend to show up in your career numbers. The fact that he keeps getting drafted in the first round every year in fantasy football shows you just how good of a talent he is and how much people believe in him and believe that he can do well over a 16 game season. But unfortunately, that's not a very good metric to get into Canton.

So is Westbrook a HOFer? I think he barely gets into the Hall of Very Good, but I wish him all of the best of luck in his future.

Analyzing the 2008 First Round RB Class

The NFL is full of some young great RBs. In fact, most of the RBs that are starting now or is a prominent back up in this current 2 RB league. in the NFL were drafted in 2008. The list includes: Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice, Tim Hightower, and Justin Forsett. An overall pretty impressive list, no?

2008 is looking like a pretty damn good year to draft a RB and I wish I had the time to analyze all these players, but the first round is a pretty good place to start. Now obviously the maximum amount of games these guys have had is only 25, so the sample size is not the greatest, but it's pretty interesting which team had the foresight to draft well.

#4 Overall: Run DMC Darren McFadden
Most of Run DMC's young career has been riddled by injury starting in only 5 games and playing in only 18. In his rookie year, he had a fine 4.4 YPC but only averaging about 8.5 carries per game. This year, however, he is averaging a measly 3.1 YPC with a little over 10 carries per game. He averages .277 TDs per game

In his freshman year, he had a negative DYAR and DVOA (which is really bad and he was really inefficient). He's not much better this year, in fact (obviously as the "normal" stats show) he's regressed.

However, I can't say that McFadden is totally to blame, the Oakland offensive line has been awful in run blocking ranking 26th last year and 20th this year.

#13 Overall: Jonathan Stewart
Unfortunately for Stewart he plays with last year should-have-been MVP DeAngelo Williams and who is having another monster year this year. So while Stewart has never started, he has played in all 25 games for the Panthers. While he only averages a career 11.8 carries per game, he does great things with those carries. Last year he averaged 4.5 YPC and this year he's raised that this year to 4.8. He is also a TD machine getting 10 last year and 6 this year. Stewart averages .64 TD's per game.

Clearly, Stewart had been very efficient ranking 6th of all RBs last year in DYAR and 12th in DVOA. This year, he ranks 17th in both.

However, when two RBs on a team do well, the most likely answer for this is the offensive line and not the RB itself. Last year, Carolina had the 8th best run blocking line and this year they rank 13th. So while Stewart is very good and durable, I'm sure a lot of his success is due the line and maybe not him.

#22 Overall: Felix Jones
After Dallas let go of Julius Jones, they decided to draft another Jones, Run DMC's back up in college. In Jones' first few games, he looked amazing. But injuries and carries has hindered him since. He's only started in 13 games so far with a career 74 attempts, 4 TDs, and a whopping 7.7 YPC. However, this YPC is probably due more to the limited carries he's had and will probably diminish with more and consistent workload. However, even for this analysis, I'd say it's just too small of a sample size to rally really determine how good Jones can be/ is. But it doesn't look promising to draft a first rounder who is constantly getting injured.

#23 Overall: Rashard Mendenhall
Again, we have a sample size problem because Mendenhall was injured all of his rookie, but he looks good this year. He has successfully stolen the job away from Willie Parker and is now a top back in this league. This year, with a consistent workload, he's averaging 5.4 YPC and 4 rushing TDs. He's averaging .31 TD's per game.

This year Mendenhall ranks 13th in DYAR and 14th in DVOA. The Steelers O-line is 11th in the league in blocking. But I give a but more credit to Mendenhall here than to Stewart because Willie Parker didn't do shit with the same O-line, whereas Stewart is playing with another back who is having success.

#24 Overall: Chris Johnson
This year, Johnson is first among all RBs in fantasy football, first in rushing yards, 4th in rushing TDs, 2nd in DVOA, 4th in DYAR, and is on his way to a second pro bowl in only two years. Yeah, mo fo is good. He had a 4.9 YPC last year and he raised that to 6.4 this year. He has 17 career rushing TDs and 2 career receiving TDs. He averages .79 TDs per game.

What really bolsters the case for Johnson's talent is that the Tennessee run blocking have been below average ranking 15th last year and 26th this year. Again, mo fo is just amazing.

Clearly draft position has meant nothing to how guys have performed because I would rank:
1) Chris Johnson
2) Jonathan Stewart
3) Rashard Mendenhall
4) Felix Jones
5) RUN DMC

Clearly you make easy arguments that guys like Forte, Kevin Smith, Slaton, Hightower, and Rice should be included in this discussion of who's the best RB to come out of this draft class. In fact, it also goes to show you that while as good as these five guys have been, you shouldn't draft a RB in the first round because you can always find just as good, if not better talent, in later rounds. I think how people view the 1996 draft for wide outs, people will view the 2008 draft for RBs.

Non-GOI Carlos Pena Analysis

DRays Bay has an absolutely fantastic analysis of Carlos Pena up on their site.

I highly recommend a read.

The Bill Belichick Call vs. The Jack Del Rio Call

Even you even remotely have an inkling for sports, you all know of the 4th and 2 call Belichick made vs. the Colts this past weekend. And being the loyal GOI blog followers you are, you should also be aware of the Jack Del Rio call telling MJD to kneel at the 1 with about a minute left so they can waste time and kick a field goal to win the game. To me, these two calls seem just as risky, yet no one really is criticizing Del Rio, but essentially everyone is criticizing Belichick. You know why-only because Belichick's gamble failed and Del Rio's suceeded.

Now I shouldn't be this hyperbolic, the Del Rio call was not nearly as big of a gamble as Belichick's was. The few dumb critics of Del Rio's call (like I think Skip Bayless is one of them), say that, "What if the field goel gets blocked, or they miss, or something goes wrong. At least MJD scoring the TD would have guaranteed the team to be up" And what if martians come down from the sky and butt fuck the kicker in the middle of his kick. Or what if an earthquake happenes right before MJD scores that TD and he falls into the center of the earth. What if. The reason Del Rio's call was the correct one (besides the fact that it succeeded and he won the game), was because he was minimizing his risks. If MJD had scored, then the Jets would have had a minute to march down the field and score- or even worse, a kick return for a TD. And the risk of his kicker missing like a 20 yard FG is slim to none.

Belichick also made the right call because he was minimizing his risks as well. The only way the Pats would have guaranteed themselves a win is by holding on to the ball and keeping the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands. How do you do that- you keep your drive alive and the Pats offense on the field. So its an obvious risk because if you fail to convert, you end up doing the thing you tried to avoid. But the Pats have a great offense and a shitty D.

When you're making the call, you don't know what the result will be. A bad call can wind up in a good result and a good call can wind up with a bad result. But you make calls to minimize your risks to win the game. And as far as I'm concerned, both coaches made the right call.

NOTE: Hey football "experts" on TV, stop fucking telling me how the Pats defense feels. "Oh, Belichick doesn't have confidence in his defense." What are you basing this off of? Even if Belichick doesn't have confidence in his D (and maybe he shouldn't because Peyton was raping them in the 4th quarter), that doesn't mean anythng. Unless you report to me info from players actually in the Pats locker room, stop fucking making up stuff. In fact, Balichick seems to have an amazing abaility to control his players minds and actually believe in everything he tells them. So if Bill Belichick tells his D he has confidence in them, his D will probably believe him.

Zack Grienke Wins AL Cy Young

Again, shocking.

1) I said in the very beginning of the year that the AL Cy Young would come from the AL Central and it would probably would be Zach Greinke (although, yes, I wasn't going oout on all that big of a limb at the time)
2) Here's why Greinke deserved to win it. The lead the AL in:

-ERA
-FIP (led all baseball)
-WHIP
-HR/9
-WAR
-Dollars (fangraph value stat)

Greinke threw the most effective fastball in the AL, the second most effective slider, thrown in with a fairly effective curveball and a decent change-up.

Greinke was second in the AL in strikeouts, 3rd in K/9, 2nd in K/BB with a slightly disadvantageous BABIP (.313).

Yes, Greinke ONLY got 16 wins, but let's be honest 1) wins are a worthless stat and 2) If the Royals weren't just a shade above being Washington Nationals bad, then he would have gotten like 25 wins.

I'm glad baseball writers are seemingly getting these big awards more and more right.

Dick Jauron Gets Fired

Shocking.

The guy was horrible in Chicago and a horrible coach throughout the year, what made the Bills think that he would do well in Buffalo?

Zack Greinke knows sabermetrics


We all know that athletes are merely cold, metal machines with no heart of souls. Yet one of them has learned how to read and has learned the wonderous world of sabermetrics. After winning the AL Cy Young with a nearly unanimous 22-25 first place votes, Greinke admitted that he used advanced statistics to help him achieve the glorious Cy Young award.
“David DeJesus had our best zone rating,” Bannister said, referring to the Royals’ left fielder. “So a lot of times, Zack would pitch for a fly ball at our park instead of a ground ball, just because the zone rating was better in our outfield and it was a big park.”
Zone factor? UZR? Range Factor? Really, he actually took into account the defensive abilities of his fielders when pitching. This is unheard of. Baseball is a game of hunches, with horrible umpiring, and functionally retarded commissioners. Doesnt Greinke know that these numbers are for losers who live in their mother's basement. It's far too nerdy for baseball players
“That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible,” emphasize the factors for which pitchers are essentially responsible: walks, strikeouts, home runs and hit batters.
FIP? Matthew Berry doesnt even know what FIP is and he runs the fantasy department at ESPN. Despite only getting 16 wins this year, cause he plays for the Royals, Greinke put up one of the best single season performances. He may be no Jason Marquis, but a 2.33 FIP in the american league is definitely worth of praise.

Defending The Bill Bellichick Call-Part 2

My colleague “Sexy Rexy” defended Bill Bellichick for the call he made on Sunday. I keep hearing about it and I also agree with “Sexy Rexy” thatit was the right call so I decided to write about it.

On Sunday Bill Bellichick made one of the most controversial football calls in a long time. The Patriots were up 34-28 with a little over two minutes left in the game. The Patriots were on their own 30 yard line and Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and short. They didn’t complete and were two yards short. They turned it over and Peyton Manning with only 30 yards to go easily maneuvered a scoring driver to win the game for the Colts 35-34. Everyone has been disagreeing with this call and saying it was a terrible move. I decided to share my view point on the subject because I agree with Bill Bellichick and make a few points I haven’t heard anyone make because everyone is disagreeing with the call.

First of all, if Tom Brady (a future hall of famer) the quarterback of one of the best offenses currently in the game were successful and got two yards, no one would be talking about this call and saying it was such a bad move. Only because the Patriots offense didn’t get two yards is everyone, including his former players ripping on the move. The New England Patriots are second in the league this season with 3,751 Total Yards. They are averaging 416.8 yards per game. That is second to the New Orleans Saints who have 3,835 total yards and are averaging 426.1 yards per game. The third best offensive teams in the league are The Indianapolis Colts with 3610 total yards averaging 401.1 per game. Thus, two of the top three offensives were playing each other.

The New England Patriots have a young defense. They do have the 8th best defense in the game for allowing the least amount of total yards, but are not what they used to be. They have had a lot of turnover in personnel on the defense and their young defensive players are still learning.

The Indianapolis Colts have the third best offense in the game. The Patriots have the second best offense. So Bill Bellichick wanted to play to the strength of his team, not their weakness!
The Patriots had the lead most of the game until the 4th quarter. The Patriots defense was getting tired and having trouble to continue to contain the explosive Colts offense. Throughout the first three quarters of the game the Colts only scored 14 points. Then in the 4th quarter before the two minute warning the Colts scored 14 points by two touch downs. First they scored 79 yards in 2:04. Then they scored 79 yards in 1:49. So yes Bill Bellichick did have reason to be worried. His defense was tired and had trouble stopping Manning twice already in the 4th quarter. Oh, yeah, both drives that were each for 79 yards were 2:04 and 1:49. Thus Manning has shown in this game against his defense that he could score easily within the time left in the game.

Also, Manning has engineered a few comebacks in the 4th quarters this season to win within 2 minutes or close to that time. This isn’t just any Offense or any quarterback the Patriots were trying to stop. This was Peyton Manning, one of the best in the game, and arguably the best at coming from behind to win. So please will everyone in the media stop saying it was a bad move. I understand it wasn’t typical, and usually wouldn’t be a smart move, but under these factors, it was!

Maurice Jones-Drew kneel down at 1 Yard Line

On Sunday there was a controversial call by Bill Bellichick in the New England game. Because of that call which I agree with, I feel no one is talking about what Jack Del Rio had Maurice Jones-Drew in the Jacksonville Jaguars game on Sunday. Maurice Jones-Drew deliberately knelt down on the one yard line instead of easily scoring a touchdown. He stopped on the 1-yard line to waste time off the clock. Then the Jaguars kicked a field goal to win by two points. Now this move I don’t understand. I would have thought it would be better to score more points which you easily had a chance to do. Instead you barley win and what if the kicker misses the field goal for some reason? Do you waste that much more time off the clock than scoring a touchdown?

I also read that Maurice Jones-Drew apologized to his fantasy owners. He was sorry for not scoring the touchdown and the extra points that come with it. He said “Sorry to my fantasy owners, they told me to get as close as I can and take a knee." I have also never heard of a player apologizing for something fantasy related. Would you want a Bear player telling the public that he thinks about fantasy football and the people that have him in their leagues?

I don’t know football like I do baseball so maybe one of our other contributors can explain this to me? Was it a good move to take the knee?

Noah just learning meaning of "Circus Trip"

The Chicago Bulls are starting their annual “Circus trip” tonight. Every year it comes toward the beginning of the season. The other day Joakim Noah learned why it is called the “Circus trip”. I guess third year players who have emerged as one of your team’s best player doesn’t know everything yet. Last night I saw the video on television about how he learned about it. It was pretty funny to see how serious he was when he said why he thought it was called the “Circus trip”. I looked online, but couldn’t find the video. So keep an eye out for it on T.V. and Comcast Sports net. You can read about it in the Daily Herald.

Noah said "I don't understand what's so circus about the trip. Everybody always says it's like a circus trip, but it's just a good team bonding (experience). We spend a lot of time together on the road." I don’t think that needs explanation! He has emerged as a good rebounder and leads the NBA in rebounding after 9 games.

Grossman's Dads Chimes in on the Bears

Rex Grossman's dad, Dan Grossman talked about the Chicago Bears. He makes some good points that here Jay Cutler is struggling now because of the culture of the team and the way he is used. It was a good article.

Bengals Big on Giving Second Chances

The Cincinnati Bengals are big on giving second chances to players. They gave a second chance to Cedric Benson and that has turned out to be a great move for them. After the Bears released Benson and gave up on him anyone could have signed him. No one rushed to sign the former 1st round pick. Now Benson is the 6th best rusher in the game so far this season. He has run for 859 yards and has scored 6 touchdowns. He is a big part of why the Bengals are 7-2 along with Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco.

Now the Bengals are giving a second chance to Larry Johnson. Larry Johnson was released by Kansas City Chiefs after not performing and being a distraction off the field. Johnson is going to be the 4th string Running back, but I think he will get a chance sometime this season to show the league he still has some game left in him, or if he is washed up at 30 years old. I think Johnson’s best days are way behind him and he won’t be much of a factor, but we will see.

The Allen Iverson Experiment in Memphis comes to an End


I have been tracking the Allen Iverson saga since he signed with the Memphis Grizzlies in September. Three games into their season Iverson let the team to take a “personal leave” and he never returned. They never said what the “personal matter" was, but speculation was that he didn’t like his role with the team so he was thinking about retiring. Now the Memphis Grizzlies decided to waive him and move on.

The Memphis Grizzlies signed him because they were hoping he would help with their attendance and give their fans something to be excited about. He could never accept his role as a bench player which it looks like they never really discussed with him. Iverson could be a good scoring guard for many teams, but he would need to understand his role at this stage of his career. The Bulls need scoring and he would fill that need, but it wouldn’t be worth it. The Nicks are the only team to express interest in him so far.

GOI Fantasy Basketball League

Game Of Inches has a Fantasy Basketball league so I decided I will do updates on it throughout the season that way we do with our fantasy football league. Only two of our writers are in the league; "The 'Bright' One" and myself “Cubsfan4evr". I know we also have some readers in the league. Today I will just post how "The 'Bright' One" and "Cubsfan4evr" are doing, but if you read the blog regularly let me know by posting a comment or contacting me directly and I will track your status next time.

1st Place) Cubsfan4evr- 86 Points
5th Place) The 'Bright' One- 54.5

We all know that “The 'Bright' One” knows basketball and Fantasy sports considering the great job he did with his fantasy baseball team considering the injuries several of his key players had. Thus, we will see his team improve over the season.

Greg Olson Sighting

On Sunday afternoon Greg Olson was at Joe’s bar in Chicago attending a Keith Urban concert. This was a small concert where you had to win tickets through Verizon Wireless and America’s country station US 99.5. Last Tuesday I went to a Verizon Wireless store in Lake Zurich with my girlfriend and she won tickets to this concert. I was surprised when she told me that Greg Olson was there. I didn’t have him pegged for a country music fan. I doubt he had to wait hours at Verizon Wireless stores waiting for his name to be drawn though……………………

GOI Football Prediction Results: Week Ten

Pigskin Pick 'Em

1) Cubsfan4evr
Overall: 95 out of 143- 66%
Last Week: 7 out of 15- 47%

2) Sexy Rexy
Overall: 91 out of 143-64%
Last Week: 8 out of 15- 53%

3) The 'Bright'
OneOverall: 91 out of 143-64%
Last Week: 8 out of 15-53%

We still have a tie between “Sexy Rexy” and “The 'Bright' One”

Fantasy Football League
1) The 'Bright' One (6-4)-956 pts
2) Cubsfan4evr (5-5)-991 pts
3) Sexy Rexy (5-5)-942 pts
4) DME (4-6)-831 pts

“The 'Bright' One” jumped over “Cubsfan4evr” and “Sexy Rexy” this week.

Tom Brady Is A Fan Of Our Blog!

Listen about 6:18 into this press game conference

Tom Brady Postgame Presser (Audio Only)

Football Outsiders Yells At Me

Apparently they don't enjoy me posting the beginning of the posts I write and then linking the substance of my post to this blog. Fuckers.

Listen. I appreciate that you're posting stuff on our boards and want to mention your site, but our boards are not your place to advertise/shill your site. Please stop that.


Update: They sent me this response

I don't mind you advertising your site to a certain extent, but please try and contribute in ways that don't strictly involve advertising your site. If you can find a healthy balance, then it won't be a problem

Elvis Andrews got shafted

Generally speaking, RP's are less valuable than position players and SPs. A relief pitcher logs significantly fewer innings than a hitter does at bats or fielder or starter does innings and even if they put up Joe Nathan-like numbers over 75 IPs, that's just 5.1% of a team's total innings played (assuming that no games go into extras).

Enter the Elvis Andrus-Andrew Bailey-Gordon Beckham debate.

Bailey had a fantastic 2009. He posted a 2.56 FIP and 91 Ks (3.79 K/BB) over 83.1 IPs. He was one of baseball's five most valuable relievers last year. But, because of his limited innings load, he was only worth +2.4 WAR. Gordon Beckham was almost as valuable, at +2.0 WAR, but his defensive struggles learning to play third reduced his value by quarter of a win.

Then there is Elvis Andrus. Andrus was not just a good shortstop last year. He was essentially tied for the honor of best defensive SS in the AL (Cesar Izturis was 1/10 of a win better at defense). Playing fantastic defense at short and slightly below average offense (-5.0 runs) over 1238 innings/541 PAs will make you a +3.0 win player. Defense is always undervalued and Elvis Andrus has a lot of it.

Baseball writers are always getting it wrong, so Andrus' failure to win ROY should come at no surprise. However, if I voted before today (the first time I ever looked at Andrus' specific fielding numbers), I too would have gotten it wrong and voted for Bailey. It just goes to show you just how underrated Andrus' defense truly was. Even amongst us baseball "stat guys."

The Future of Mad Men?

NOTE: This post contains spoilers from Season 3 of Mad Men so if you're like DME and have not seem Season 3, stop reading. But with Mad Men recently ending, I'm not going to wait for all blog authors to finsih watching Mad Men before discussing it with out loyal readers.

One to start off, Betty Draper was awful on SNL a few nights ago. It's a shame because January Jones is so fucking hot, but it makes me wonder how she can get through a 40 minute script if she can't get through a seven minute sketch...

Anyway, the future of Mad Men. Season One of the show was amazing. It was amazing because 1) The dichotomy and depth of Donald Draper 2) How these characters interect with each other and the times and 3) Fan-fucking-tastic writing. But after watching Season Three, I'm not quite sure about how the greatness of one and two will continue.

First, the character of Don Draper. Part of what made Don Draper such a fabuluous character is because of this double life he led. He was a crazy womanizer and would cheat constantly on his wife, yet come home and try to be the loving family man. But he never quite mastered his family man life (see him not coming home after running out to get his kids birthday cake in Season One). But now that Betty has left him (and hopefully for good because this on again off again relationship would just get annoying), who cares if he womanizes? You watched how he interacted before with girls like Racheal Menken and Bobby Barrett and you were disgusted yet intregued with this character. You couldn't stop watching because you were compelled by this double life this man was leading. And the mystery of him being Walt Whitman also enetred into this dichotomy. But after Season Three, none of that seems to matter. After Season One, the Speilberg-esque mystery of Walt Whitman didn't matter anymore. The episode in which he told Betty eveything was fantasitc because she was the one person who he was keeping this secret from. But where can the show go from there? There's no mystery, no suspense, no nothing anymore. And now that Betty is gone, there's no mystery or suspense or depth to Don Draper anymore. All the characterics that made you hooked to the character of Don Draper through Seasons 1-3 won't be there in the future.

In fact, from my perspective, I've already started to not care what Don does. I should be pissed that he was sleeping with Sally's teacher, but I just didn't care. The fact that Don had to sign a contract should have been a huge deal. But the second that happened, I was just like "eh:. The show spent the first half of its season being shitty to set up the amazingness of the second half. But all it really did was make me (and I feel others as well) become less interested in the character. And the ENTIRE subplot of Conrad Hilton did nothing. I feel like it's only purpose was to legitimately set up a reason to force Don to sign a contract, and considering how much time was spent with the Hilton account and how little signing the contract feels, all the time the show wasted with the Hilton account seems like wasted, boring time.

Next, the other charcters. It was nice at the very end that all the main charcters from Seasons 1 and 2 will now be the focal point of at least Season 4. The fact that Pete and Peggy share a desk will hopefully bring up some of the tension that we loved in the first two seasons. How Roger interacts with people, and especially Joanie, will now be more prominent- which is a very good thing. But I don't kow where they can go. Things seem to be resolved between all these charcaters. Pete's finally getting his, something that made for nice conflict in Seasons 1 and 2, Roger isn't cheating anymore, and the gang of Pete and Paul and Kenneth aren't going to be there anymore. Now obviously, the change of the 60's is coming so my interest is piqued for what's to come (especiially considering the last time we saw Sal he was at a homosexual park), but I'm not looking forward to how these characters interact with each other.

Lastly, I don't like how the show doesn't develop its sideplots. It never developed the drama between Kenneth and Pete, the one between Peggy and her family, the one Peggy and her lovers (Duck and random dude), really Peggy in general wasn't developed in Season 3, and everything with the Head of TV dude seems dumb. I hope they develop the relationship between Joan and her husband and he'll probably die in Vietnam, but after he raped her, what happened next? Nothing really. Mad Men, especially recently, introduced these really interesting subplots and then does nothing with them (i.e. all of Entourage last season.) So why should I be interested in anything the shows tells me to do anymore? I just think Mad Men isn't doing as good of a job as it did in its first two seasons.

Now I'm still going to watch Season Four of Mad Men, but I'm not looking forwards to it as much as a was looking forward to Seasons Two and Three.

Defending The Bill Bellichick Call

For all those who saw the Patriots/Colts game tonight (what else would you be doing? Homework? Hanging out with loved ones? Why?), The Pats were up 34-28 with a little under two minutes left to go. The Pats were on there own 30 and Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and short. They don't convert and surprise surprise, Peyton Manning, with only 30 yards and a minute left to go, scores a TD and the Colts win the game 35-34. Now I can imagine that people all over this blogosphere and on ESPN will be criticizing Belichick for this awful decision. Now if I was the coach and I'm sure everyone else would have punted it on fourth down, but I'm going to sort of defend Belichick.

It has actually been statistically proven actually to never punt on 4th down, and some high school coach never punts and his team is amazing and wins State like every year. The reason behind this is that the extra yards a team has to go after a punt (assuming not an awesome run back which is always plausible) is not worth the risk of not keeping your drive alive. So if mathematicians from Universities tell you not to punt, why punt?

The Pats have an amazing offense and they almost converted that 4th down. And if they converted, they were guaranteed to win the game. And just because the Pats punted the ball doesn't mean they WOULD have won. The punt return could have been amazing/ brought back for a TD. And even if a fair catch was called, who's the say that Peyton Manning still wouldn't have scored a TD like he's done so many times before? Plus, Belichick probably didn't trust his defense (and I don't blame him). If the Pats had punted and still lost the game, people wouldn't criticize him. So why criticise him for going for it? It's obviously a huge risk and one that ended up backfiring, but I don't think the decision itself was as bad as people said. And if Faulk had held onto the ball, then that decision would have made amazing for the Pats.

Again, I would have punted it and I'm sure if Belichick knew he wouldn't convert the 4th down, he would have done so as well. But I'm gonna say it was as bad of a decision as people make it out to be.

Matt Kemp Power

"Matt Kemp Power" is a trademark phrase of the David "MVP" Eckstein Corporation, LLC. It refers to Matt Kemp's career ISO (.180-ish) and the ability of a hitter with a comparable ISO to reasonably post a 20 HR/60 XBH season over 650 PAs. Matt Kemp power refers to guys with ISO's ranging between .170 and .185. Hitters with such power can be expected to post 20 HR/60 XBH seasons. They are not "sluggers", but valuable hitters nonetheless, especially when paired with "Matt Kemp Speed." Guys with less then Matt Kemp power are, at best, guys with league average power and not sexy (see Dustin Pedroia). In short, Matt Kemp power is sexy gap power with the ability to go yard.

Now, when you see or hear us refer to a guy as having "Matt Kemp power" (ie, Jayson Nix in 2009), you will be in the know, and knowledge is power.

Jake Fox: Trade Chip or Cheap 1B of the Future?

Jake Fox had a successful "debut" in 2009 (Fox had previously accumulated 15 MLB PA's with the Cubs in 2007). Though he certainly faded down the stretch, Fox none the less put up an above average .779 OPS with a quality .208 ISO in 241 PA's with the Cubs in 2009. Between AAA and the majors last season, Fox jacked a ridiculous 28 HRs in under 450 PAs. His .433 ISO was a full 79 points ahead of the second highest ISO in the Pacific League amongst hitters with 150+ PAs. In short, Fox had his "breakout season." However, like most Cubs prospects, Jake Fox is old; he turns 28 next year. Furthermore, his lack of defense makes him a difficult guy to play on the diamond. 1B and 3B are blocked by A-Ram and D-Lee, while the corners in the outfielder are manned by Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano. If Milton Bradley isn't traded (which he shouldn't be because he was bit by a lot of bad luck last season and he is poor enough a player on or off the field to be worth the $15M salary dump it would require to move him), that leaves no room for Fox besides the bench. Thus the question beckons: is Jake a trade chip at the "peak" of his value or does he have a valuable role in the future of the team?

Unlike the "breakout" performance of Micah Hoffpauir, who overperformed in 2008, Jake Fox underperformed in 2009. Despite a lackluster walk rate (6.1% in 2009, 9.1% MLB average) and eyebrow raising .311 OBP, there are plenty of reasons to trust in Jake Fox. The .285 BABIP and .319 xBABIP/.302 MLB avg BABIP disparity shows that Jake Fox, who posted a .332 wOBA in 2009, has some room to improve in 2010. As someone who posts league average strikeout rates, has improving walk rates in the minors, and has posted an ISO above .250 each season in the minors since being promoted to AAA in 2007, Bill James is profiling Jake Fox as a .284/.339/.546 (.885 OPS) hitter next season. The average MLB first baseman, by contrase, hit .277/.362/.483 (.845 OPS) in 2009.

With Derek Lee, who is in the final year of his contract, turning 35 and getting paid $13M next season, Jake Fox could provide the Cubs with the kind of payroll flexibility they would need to stay competitive in 2011 and 2012. With the burdensome contracts of Soriano, Big Z, Fukudome and Milton Bradley guaranteed and Aramis Ramirez's $16M 2012 option on the books, the Cubs do not have much breathing room in terms of adding "the necessary guys." A guy like Jake Fox, who can competently replace Derek Lee's offense in 2011 and 2012 (assuming he doesn't get slapped with super two status), would give the Cubs $13 to spend on gapping holes (aka, relief pitching). Rather than trading away guys for prospects and hoping the Cubs can build as good of a team as they currently have while rebuilding for the future, the Cubs have the potential to stay strong for the next few years.

Quality players who do not cost a lot are slim pickings for the Cubs, who haven't exactly had the best of drafts since 2001. Fox is a breath of fresh air. Especially since power is overpriced.

Why Aren't The Houston Texans Better?

I figure I'd step out of my Chicago bias range and actually discuss and analyze another team. In fact, I'd thought I'd analyze a team that no one seems to be talking about- you guessed it, the Houston Texans. Now I'll fully admit I've never seen a Houston Texans game in my life. But let's be honest, who actually needs to WATCH games to analyze games. I mean Chris Rongey watches every single White Sox game and he doesn't know shit about the team.

Think about this, the Texans have the best wide out in the game (Andre Johnson), a top five QB (Matt Schaub), a pro bowl worthy and young running back (Steve Slaton), a top five talent-wise DE (Mario Williams), a former defensive ROY (DeMeco Ryans), and this year's defensive ROY (Brian Cushing). This year, they currently have the 7th best run blocking D-line and the 12th best pass blocking O-line.

Now, I actually can't answer this question because I haven't seen a single game, but it's a good question don't you think. The Texans seems to draft well (passing on the shitty Reggie Bush for Willaims) and their team is extremely young. I don't know if it's the coaching, the fact that some of their stars (Williams, Slaton) aren't playing very good right now, or the fact that there an expansion team that made some pretty bad decisions early in their franchise (i.e. taking the great David Carr #1 overall). But, I don't know, it seems that this team can never seem to get over the 8-8 ceiling.

I can tell you that this year their doing bad, because there secondary is god awful causing this team to be in the bottom third for total defense. And they can't seem to run the ball this year. I have a feeling this team hasn't put too much emphasis on the O-line just because they're such a young franchise. There run blocking is awful which is bringing Steve Slaton down (plus Slaton's fumbles). I don't know what's wrong with Super Mario this year, but his four sacks is probably the reason the Texans pass D is so bad this year.

This team seems to have the talent, or are on the way to having the talent, needed to make it to the playoffs. But when you think about the players and talent on this team, it makes you wonder why the Texans can't continually win 10+ games every year? Maybe Gary Kubiak isn't THAT good of a coach? Maybe it's harder than we realize to start a team from scratch, especially with everybody else already established? Maybe the players at the positions I haven't names (i.e. S, DT, CB) are really fucking bad?Maybe this is the year the Texans win 10 games? I don't know, and frankly, if any Houston Texan fan has the answer, I'd really like to know. But seriously, when you look at this teams roster, why aren't they better?

Does Lovie Smith Need To Get Canned?

What makes Lovie Smith a good coach? What makes him deserving to keep this job? And I don't buy the proposition that "Well, at least the Bears have never been Cleveland Browns bad." In the wake of this season and coming off of a horrible fucking loss to the fucking 49ers, it may seem that we all jump to rash decisions. But I'm trying to analyze this from a rational perspective. Plus, the term "winning cures all woes" applies to the latter, losing means someone needs to get fired. The team in not good, and frankly someone needs to be blamed and be at fault. In baseball, usually the hitting coach or conditioning coach or someone gets fired. And when of course that doesn't work, the manager gets canned soon after. Yet nobody blames the GM who can't draft and trades for guys who can't walk or play defense but have "a good average". Anyway, I digress. So when a football team, especially the Chicago Bears, does shitty and doesn't seem to get any better, who should get blamed. Does anyone deserve the blame. Yes, and that person is Lovie Smith.

Football, unlike most major sports, actually requires a lot of skill and effort from the managerial position. With baseball, if you have above average to great players, even managers like Joe Girardi and Joe Torre can keep there jobs. But in football (as all Ron Zook teams can show you), having great players doesn't necessarily means your team will do well. In fact, great coaching is able to heighten a teams strength and diminish the teams weaknesses. Have a great O-line but your using your back up QB that hasn't played in five years and no running game, dink and dump and do short passes to set up the long game (see Bill Belichick). Have a QB that can't throw 20+ yards, a shitty O-line, but great RBs, use a formation that no one has ever used before called the Wildcat and win 11 games (see Tony Sparano). Now every coach can't be great, but if you want to keep your job, you need to maximize your strengths and minimize your weaknesses. And Lovie Smith hasn't done that.

In Smith's case, he designs the schemes (especially the defensive ones) and gets/ demands players for it. GM Jerry Angelo essentially works for Smith, he gets players that will fit with his system (and even better example see what Scott Pioli did for Belichick. Why draft a LB when you get get a "washed up" one in the free agent market that's much cheaper and will do the same job?). For the Bears, and I'm sure most teams, the players on the field are the result of the coach.

For Lovie, he wanted players to fit his Cover-2, or Tampa-2 scheme. He got lucky because he inherited Brian Urlacher- who fit his scheme perfectly for a while, Lance Briggs, and Tommie Harris and Alex Brown (when they were good). He then went out and traded for Wale Ogunleye, a guy coming off of a 15 sack season (I believe). For a while, Smith had the players to fit his system. His defense was young, in their prime, and he helped lead the team to a Superbowl. Plus, the team managed to make Nathan Vasher look like a pro bowler. Smith also inherited the offense to fit his scheme. He didn't need a QB, but he got a RB (Thomas Jones) and a damn fine rushing offensive line headed by Reuben Brown and Olin Kruetz. And for a while, this team was good which helped compliment the coaching. But then this team got old and Lovie's draft picks failed. I will give Lovie credit for Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, but two players doesn't make up for years of bad drafting.

Guys like Cedric Benson (trust me, he would have still sucked had he been a Chicago Bear this year), Mark Anderson, Dan Bauzin, Garrett Wolfe, and every safety the Bears has ever drafted under Smith have all not been very good. Even Greg Olson isn't that good and while Chris Williams is fine, he was injury prone in college and OL that went after Williams, like Jeff Otah, are far better plays than Williams is. Which leads me to my first point- Lovie Smith is terrible at drafting.

I hate when people condescendingly use "what have you done for me lately" Well, why is that a bad thing? I'm glad for what you've done in the past, but if the Bears are to keep Smith around, it's because he'll be able to help this team in the future. Keeping Smith around is like keeping Andruw Jones around for your baseball team because he was great once or starting Chris Chelios at age 75 because he was one of the greatest hockey players. Is the past accomplishments great? Absolutely. But if you're building a team for the future, you need personal for the future, not from the past. And if you can not draft to help keep a team good for the future, why keep you around.

Plus, the players that Lovie knows have been god awful. Adam Archeleta and Orlando Pace, guys that even the St. Louis Rams thought weren't good enough to play for them, have been just awful for the Bears. I've never seen Pace actually successfully block his defender and Archelta was so bad, the Bears benched him midway through the season.

My second point is coaching strategy. I hate this Cover-2 now. As I've said earlier, it used to work. But the players are not good now. Urlacher's out/ old and not good when healthy, Brown and Wale can't get to the QB anymore, and out DT's aren't doing shit. This enables opposing QB's to make better throws which emphasizes the weakness of our secondary. Lovie Smith flat out can not keep his precious Cover-2 because every team knows how to beat it, and does. This causes Cutler to look bad and the Bears to lose games... it's just not good. In fact, this is the quintessential time for Lovie to design a different scheme that highlights the defense's strengths and diminishes the weakness. Philly and New England are great at designing Blitz packages to get to the QB to make up for their diminished talent. Lovie tried to do this last year, but essentially all the blitz packages failed and it just meant less defenders in the secondary and easier for QBs to make throws. If Lovie truly wanted to keep his job, he'd find a way to make his defense work.

And lastly, Lovie is awful at in game preparation. I never see him make changes to the scheme during the game/ after half time. Good coaches realize and can see what isn't working and what is, so they change their plan, But Lvie doesn't do this and thus you never seem to see a Bears team do better in the second half. Also, Lovie is awful at challenging. This causes the Bears to lose time outs and gives the team less plays to work with. Although, with Lovie, he wouldn't be able to use his extra time outs wisely anyway. A perfect example of this is Thursday's game. How the fuck do you drive down the field to try and score a game winning TD as time expires and still have a time out left when the game is over.

I'd like to think I'm being rational and not overreacting to the Bears awful loss. In fact, I've written a post back in the day on what it takes to be a good coach, and wrote before the season started that Lovie Smith is a bad coach. I think if the Bears don't make the playoffs this year (which they won't) that the Bears need to find a coach that will help maximize Jay Cutler and can actually make the Bears good for the future

What the fuck Jay Cuntler?



How low does your blood sugar have to be to throw 5 interceptions against a team on a 4 game losing streak with no offense to speak off? I know the receivers are short and slow, but so are the DB's so how about throwing it to the guys in white. You know it's a bad day when the QB has almost as many picks as the team has points. People still defend Cutler because he does throw for 300 yards, and the offensive line is brutal, but our patience is going to run short especially with the douche attitude he has every single game.

However, if you deeper into the numbers, there is hope. Cutler leads the league with 338 passing attempts, yet his comp%, yards/att, and TD% have all stayed constant since last season and his career as a whole. The only stats that are out of the ordinary is is an interception percentage that is at 5% this year as compared to 3.o and 2.9 the previous 2 seasons. His sack percentage has spiked from 1.8% last year to a whopping 5.3% per dropback this year. Obviously, the regression in talent in the WR and OL has taken a toll on Cutlers overall performance, but assuming he regresses to the mean with a larger sample size the interceptions should begin to normalize. However that does nothing to fix our crappy defense. Fuck this team

Best Blick 182 performance I've ever seen (the only one)



From the UIC Date Auction at Rumba

Half man half amazing

ESPN.com had a poll on their front page today asking if this Dwayne Wade dunk was a top 10 dunk of all time. 40% of responders said yes it is top 10 EVER.



Yes it was a great dunk, a facial, a poster, a kodak moment as Reggie Miller put it, but it may not be top 50 as far as i'm concerned. Even if narrow down the results to in-game dunks, hence eliminating the 720 dunk and the between the legs from the free throw line dunk. But one man stand above all else when it comes to dunking, and no i'm not talking about #23. Vince Carter had the perfect combination of height, reach, creativity, elevation, and grace. Please watch this video and enjoy the beauty of it all. There are 20 dunks in here better than Wade's as far as i'm concerned

Derek Jeter is washed up

According to MLB.com, Deter Jeter will have a supporting role in the upcoming Adam McKay movie "The Other Guys." The kicker? Derek Jeter will be playing a washed up version of himself, four years removed from baseball. The promotional picture (below) is absolutely hilarious.



I guess the backstory to the plot is that ESPN jerked off so much to Derek Jeter that their dick fell off. Either that or John Kruk ate everyone else from Baseball Tonight. Why else wouldn't Captain Clutch be slumming it up with Joe Morgan in 2018?

Matt Millen Is The Thursday Night Football Announcer? Really?

For those of you who do not know, Matt Millen was the GM of the Detroit Lions. He was so awful, so bad, kept drafting wide outs with his 1-4 pick in like every single draft he was been in (which shows you how bad he was), and finally got fired after the Lions went 0-16. Here's some of my thoughts watching and listening to Millen talk during the TNF game last night:

-I wonder what Millen will have to say about Hester and Crabtree. Because if I had to pick one guy to analyze my wide outs, I choose Millen. Mainly because of his track record.

-Matt Millen just gave the audience the keys for what a rookie wide out had to do! I wonder if he taught all those first round picks these tricks?

-My prediction about Millen's career on the NFL Network. He makes awful decisions and says dumb things all the time but doesn't get fired until, in one season, every team he predicts to win... lose

-Nobody will end up watching games in which Millen is in charge because... Matt Millen is in charge

Post your Matt Millen comments or tweet us them!

In all seriousness, Millen is on par with Al Davis and Bill Wirtz and just above Dan Snyder on the all time list of the worst people ever to run a franchise

The Not Silver Slugger, Not Gold Glove Awards

Screw the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards. Let's instead look at who was the worst at hitting and fielding in the AL/NL. There is a 400 PA requirement for hitters and fielders (yes, I know that PA's are a weird way to determine FRAA, but there was way to sort player values by innings played on Fangraphs).

2009 American League NOT Silver Slugger Award
C-Dioner Navarro (-23.4 Batting Runs)
1B-Mike Jacobs (-10.3 Batting Runs)
2B-Nick Punto (-11.3 Batting Runs)
SS-Yuniesky Betancourt (-23.9 Batting Runs)
3B-Brendan Harris (-11.7 Batting Runs)
OF-Willie Bloomquist (-12.2 Batting Runs)
OF-Alex Rios (-12.0 Batting Runs)
OF-B.J. Upton (-8.8 Batting Runs)
DH-Aubrey Huff (-15.9 Batting Runs)
Total Runs Created = -129.5

2009 National League NOT Silver Slugger Award
C-Jason Kendall (-15.8 Batting Runs)
1B-Daniel Murphy (-3.7 Batting Runs)
2B-Clint Barmes (-14.4 Batting Runs)
SS-Edgar Renteria (-19.8 Batting Runs)
3B-Emilio Bonafacio (-21.5 Batting Runs)
OF-Willie Taveras (-27.2 Batting Runs)
OF-Brandon Moss (-13.5 Batting Runs)
OF-Randy Winn (-13.4 Batting Runs)
P-Jon Garland (-14.9 Batting Runs, 75 PA)
Total Runs Created = -144.2

2009 American League NOT Gold Glove Award (C/P omitted due to lack of fielding data)
1B-Ty Wiggington (-6.8 Fielding Runs)
2B-Adam Kennedy (-10.3 Fielding Runs)
SS-Yuniesky Betancourt (-20.5 Fielding Runs)
3B-Mark Teahen (-12.2 Fielding Runs)
OF-Jermaine Dye (-20.0 Fielding Runs)
OF-Jose Guillen (-18.7 Fielding Runs)
OF-Jacoby Ellsbury (-18.6 Fielding Runs)
Total Runs Prevented = -107.1

2009 National League NOT Gold Glove Award (C/P omitted due to lack of fielding data)
1B-Jorge Cantu (-5.7 Fielding Runs)
2B-Skip Schumaker (-12.9 Fielding Runs)
SS-Miguel Tejada (-13.9 Fielding Runs)
3B-David Wright (-10.4 Fielding Runs)
OF-Adam Dunn (-36.3 Fielding Runs)
OF-Brad Hawpe (-21.3 Fielding Runs)
OF-Andre Ethier (-16.2 Fielding Runs)
Total Runs Prevented = -116.7

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Total AL Wins "Above" the Replacement level: -23.7
Total NL Wins "Above" the Replacement level: -26.1
-------
----------------------------------------------------------

Of note:

-OF Vernon Wells almost made the AL NOT Silver Slugger list at -8.1 Batting Runs. J.P. Riccardi really doesn't know how to sign players to good contracts (Vernon Wells has only topped the .900 OPS mark once in his career, although he does have an .899 OPS season to his name as well).
-The worst hitting Pitcher (Garland) was better than the worst hitting DH (Huff). Bahahaha.
-Yuniesky Betancourt is the only player in the majors to be the worst fielder AND hitter at his position. Why is he not cut?
-Jacoby Ellsbury, with an 8.2 Speed Score, was rated the fastest major leaguer last season with 300+ ABs. And yet, he is terrible at defense. This just goes to show you that not all fast players have good range.
-Adam Dunn single handedly ruined the NL's worst defense compared to the AL by being almost twice as crappy at defense as the second worst fielder in baseball (Jermaine Dye).
-Willie Taveras is really bad at baseball. Anyone who drafted him last year probably knows this.

Why I Think Michael Crabtree Will Run All Over The Bears


Because he can run ten yards, stop, cut, and turn towards the post. And since the Bears can't get to the QB for shit, Alex Smith will have time to throw. Plus, Gore will run all over this shitty front seven, he'll set up a great play action pass to Crabtree.

Predictions for fantasy:
-Michael Crabtree get minimum 15 fantasy points
-Same with Frank Gore
-Vernon Davis gets a TD

I think the AL Silver Slugger awards accidentally copy/pasted the AL Gold Glove list

2009 American League Silver Slugger Awards
C -- Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
1B -- Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
2B -- Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
3B -- Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
SS -- Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
OF -- Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
OF -- Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox
OF -- Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels

2008 American League Gold Glove Awards
C -- Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
1B -- Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
2B -- Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers
3B -- Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
SS -- Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
OF -- Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
OF -- Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
OF -- Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels

Doesn't the term slugger imply home runs? If so, why is Teixeira (.273 ISO) on the list over Carlos Pena (.310 ISO)? Or Ichiro (.113 ISO, not even top 50 in wOBA amongst players with 500+ PA) and Torii Hunter (.208 ISO) over Nelson Cruz (.264) and Nick Swisher (.249 ISO)? Sigh. I'm not going to waste any more breathe (or text) criticizing these obvious poor picks further. Check out SexyRexy's Silver Slugger Picks for a better set of choices (though I personally think Pena and Cruz are better picks over Youkilis and Hunter).

GOI Football Predictions: Week Ten Past Two

Tonight is the Bears game so we did that match-up already. Here is the rest of Week 10.
My selections are in bold.
Here are my Picks for this week:

Chicago at San Francisco
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Atlanta at Carolina
Tampa Bay at Miami
New Orleans at St. Louis
Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets
Buffalo at Tennessee
Denver
at Washington
Detroit at Minnesota
Kansas City at Oakland
Dallas at Green Bay
Philadelphia at San Diego
Seattle at Arizona
New England at Indianapolis
Baltimore at Cleveland

Post #1,078: Mike Fontenot and the Cubs get buttfucked by baseball

According to MLB.com, despite the fact that Mike Fontenot, Adam Jones and Micah Owings each have 2 years, 139 days of service time, only Mike Fontenot is going to be designated with super two status. This means that while Adam Jones and Micah Owings get paid $430K next season, Mike Fontenot has the potential to put some stress on the Cubs payroll efficiency. This makes Fontenot, a very good defender with, at worst, a league average bat when his BABIP isn't .281 (xBABIP last season was .300, Fontenot's career BABIP is .315), a strong non-tender candidate. I have raved plenty in person and probably here on the blog and in the podcasts about my man crush on Mike Fontenot. Fontenot is the kind of player who drives the ball, plays strong defense and has some gap power. He profiles as a .285/.365/.450 with 15-20 HR power over the course of 600 AB. Despite the fact that Fontenot struggled in 2009, he is probably posed for a $1-2M arbitration raise over last year's league minimum salary. With Cubs SS prospect Starlin Castro on the fast track to the big leagues, and given Theriot's weak throwing arm (and Pinella's love for Theriot), it's more likely that the Cubs cut ways with Fontenot and slide Theriot back to 2B than they retain Fontenot at a higher salary (given the Cubs payroll problems [see Soriano, Bradley, Fukudome, Miles]). Fontenot is not likely to be retained as a backup player because Aaron Miles is under contract for 2010 and Jim Hendry has irrational expectations for Miles which only Cubsfan4ever can rival. In summation, the Cubs are likely to make a poor roster move because of MLB's decision to give Fontenot super-two status.

There goes the value of my Mike Fontenot signed baseball (FML, I'm a Cubs fan).

____________

Update: Jim Hendry has hinted that the Cubs will most likely not non-tender Fontenot. I hope this is more than mere inference.

I hate how people actually look

A long time ago, in a universe far far away, GOI used to make podcasts and talk about the all the important issues in the world of sports. One time we discussed how it is impossible to tell how someone on the radio looks in real life based solely on their voice. Apparently the same can be true of ones writing. Josh Zerkle is the writer for one of my favorite sports blogs, withleather.com. Based on his witty writing, I would expect him to be a young, hip personality like a Nate Silver for example. However, he just put up a video of some blogger convention he attended in Las Vegas, and I got to see what he really looks like. Now I have been burned many times before and i told my not to watch the video because it would ruin the website for me for ever and ever. But I gave it a shot and got destroyed like always.

Josh Zerkle is actually a super dweeb who wears 3 t-shits at once, plays video games all day long, and basically looks like he lives in his mother's basement. I doubt I can take any of his sarcastic, pop culture references seriously ever again. I now take offense that this loser called me an overzealous fanboy in one of his posts. Go pretend to be cool somewhere else.

Blogs with Balls After Dark With Matt Sebek from HHR on Vimeo.

The REAL Silver Slugger Awards

This is who I think deserves to win the meaningless silver slugger award- based on wOBA, and from my limited understanding, this appears to be the best metric to judge offensive players, but DME could tell me wrong

AL:
C- Joe Mauer (Twins)- How does he not win every award he can this year?
1B- Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox)- not Carlos Pena
2B- Ben Zobrist (Rays)
SS- Derek Jeter (Yankees)
3B- A-Roid (Yankees)
RF- Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)- although Zobrist leads all RF...
CF- Torii Hunter (Angels)
LF- Jason Bay (Red Sox)
DH- Adam Lind (Blue Jays)- I don't know if they have a Silver Slugger for DH but Lind has been the best.

NL:
C- Brian McCann (Braves)
1B- Albert Pujols (Cardinals)
2B- Chase Utley (Phillies)
SS- Hanley Rameriz
3B- Mark Reynolds (OK, Kung Fu Panda has the better nickname and beat Reynolds by .15 in wOBA, but come on, look at the year Reynolds had)
RF- Justin Upton
CF- Matt Kemp (although he's .01 behind Andrew McCutchen in wOBA, which guys would you rather have?)
LF- Ryan Braun (Brewers)
P- Micah Owings (Reds) - How long will it be before a team Rick Ankiel's him?