Wes Welker vs. Randy Moss

For a list of who deserved to go to the Pro Bowl on offense and special teams, click here

For the second straight year, Wes Welker makes it to the Pro Browl and his compatriot Randy Moss does not. This boggles my mind. Again, Randy Moss leads the AFC in receiving TDs and again, Wes Welker is towards the bottom. The problem with these two receivers is that they have completely different running styles that it makes it hard to compare the two. Welker is a possession receiver and Moss is a deep threat, thus there numbers are going to look a lot different.

Welker is Tom Brady's "go-to guy"- which essentially means that if Brady doesn't have a receiver to throw to, he then will "dump" off the pass to Welker just to gain a few yards. The problem with this type of receiver is that 1) it inflates their receptions and catch rate and 2) it decreases their TDs. So when you look to see that Welker leads the league is receptions (122) and catch rate (76%), it looks pretty darn good. Add to that that Welker is second in the league in yards, it looks damn impressive. However, when the vast majority of the passes thrown your way are dump off passes over the middle, one would expect you to top the league in receptions and TDs. The same logic for Welker is the same logic for why QBs in a West Coast offense look so good. It's easier to have a high completion percentage when all your doing is tossing the ball of to your running back. In fact, this is evidence by Welker's extremely low YPR ranking 85th between Fred Davis and Antwaan Randle El.

But at the same time, Welker shouldn't be punished for doing his job so damn well either. Sure, Welker is only a possession receiver, but he's the best in the game at it. And sure he only gets dump off passes, but he's the top wide out in getting Yards After Catch. So the vast majority of those yards he's generating, are mostly because of him. Welker is also 2nd in DYAR (total value) and 13th in DVOA (value per play), both if which is better than Randy Moss. And when you watch him play, you can tell how valuable he is. Despite being a short yardage possession guy, he still generates double teams. This frees up space on the field for a guy like Moss to get open. And when teams take Welker out of the picture, Brady and the Pats tend to not have good games. A crude and brief look at Welker's and Brady's fantasy points help show this. Weeks 15, 12, and 2 were Welker's lowest scoring weeks. Those weeks also coincided with Brady's lowest scoring weeks and a Pats loss.

On the other hand, Moss also shouldn't be punished for doing what we does so well. While Welker is a possession receiver, Moss is a deep threat guy. Which means you should expect these players to have must lower receptions and catch rates than possession guys and much higher TD totals. Moss leads the AFC in TDs and 4th in the AFC in DYAR (total value).

However, this year, Moss is actually the 5th best receiver in the AFC, which means that he actually SHOULD be the odd man out. This year, Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson all have better overall numbers than Moss. Moss is 5th in the AFC in yards, 6th in first downs, 5th in plays of 20+ yards, and 7th in receptions.

So who is the better receiver, this year it's Wes Welker. But either way, Moss is a guaranteed HOFer and should absolutely be a Pro Bowler over Brandon Marshall this year.