Adrian Peterson Is Overrated

Yes, AD (All Day and he prefers AD over AP) is a fantasy stud and when you watch him play, it's like magic. Like the first time you heard the Bealtes. Like the first time, whole you were in junior high and you got that... sorry, trying to be more professional. Assuming you're not watching him destroy like like us Bears fans are used to seeing him do, he's very good. From the "intangibles" stand point, he's extremely fast once he gets into the open field, eluding tacklers, and getting past his sub-par offensive line. But this is GOI, who are we to actually judge a player from an "intangibles" standpoint. We judge players by statistics. Which is why AD is overrated.

First though, more intangibles. AD is not an every down back. Sure, he does wonders normally on the second and first downs, but if you're supposed to be the best, why aren't you in on every down? Which means that 1) AD is a poor blocker and 2) AD is a poor pass catcher. In today's NFL, it takes more than running with the ball to be considered the best running back. You need to do everything. When LT was in his prime, he was able to not only run (amazingly) and catch the ball, but he was in on every down and even threw about 3 TDs per year. Guys like Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams and even Steve Slaton and Matt Forte are able to catch and block as well as run. These guys, when playing, also play every down (sure Williams loses carries to Jonathan Stewart and Slaton now is losing carries to Ryan Moats and Chris Brown, but none of those back ups are considered "third down backs" like Chester Taylor, AD's back up, is). Peterson also fumbles like crazy. Turnovers are the single biggest factor to why teams win games and AD is prone to helping out the other team. Chris Colinsworth pointed out in last Sunday's game, when the Vikings schlacked the Bears, that most coaches would pull their RB if they fumbled as often as AD does. So yes, to Peterson's credit he has the ability, as Colinsworth pointed out, to stay in the because his talent outwieghs his proneness to fumble. But still, if you want to be considered the best back, like people think of AD, you need to better. In 2.5 years, AD has fumbled a whooping 19 times. AD leads all RBs this year with 6 rushing fumbles and is second only to Matt Cassel's seven this year. But if if you take away all that, AD is still overrated.

His run blocking offensive line has never been the greatest, which gives a big check mark to AD for him being able to do what he does, and he still is an amazing runner. Just not the best. He has a career 5.0 YPC, which is amazing. But if we're considering him as the best back in the game, that's just OK. This year, AD only ranks 13th in YPC behind greats like Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Frank Gore. And as footballoutsiders.com shows, AD is just good. He ranks 9th in DYAR and 15th in DVOA. Guys that are better than him in both categories: Steven Jackson (1st in both), Chris Johnson (2nd in both), DeAngelo Williams (3rd and 7th respectively), Ryan Grant (4th and 10th respectively), and Michael Turner (5th and 8th respectively).

Not to reign ALL over AD's parade because he is t-2nd in TDs, 2nd in rushes over 20 yards, 3rd in YPG, and first in first downs, but if you want to be considered the best back right now you have to do MORE than that.

So for the four of you who voted AD as the best NFC RB over Turner, Williams, and Jackson, I hope this post changed your mind.

4 comments:

Cubsfan4evr said...

Adrian Peterson had a great season running the football last season so everyone, especially fantasy players jumped on the bandwagon on how great he is. You made some great points why he is over rated. Adrian Peterson needed to build on his season last year, which he failed to do. You forgot about Maurice Jones Drew who I think may be the best overall running back. He can do everything. Chris Johnson is the best though.

Adam Kaplan said...

I'll have to take a better look at AD's numbers but I know he only got 10 rushing TDs and he still fumbled a lot, couldn't play on 3rd downs, and still couldn't catch the ball.

With this year, Favre helps open up the running game, which should make AD even better and he should be developing into the best RB in the game like everyone says he is, but he's not. And as a football fan in general, you'd like to see him improve.

Adam Kaplan said...

By not including MJD in this conversation, I didn't mean to disrespect him. I feel like AD is better than him, but the main reason I wrote this post is because of the poll on the side that AD is winning by a wide margin so I tended to include more NFC backs than AFC. But yes, MJD is just a beast, is amazing, and I have much respect for him, and I'm sorry I doubted him as much as I did in the beginning of the season.

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